Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday
The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.
Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.
In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.
Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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50s Southern(Miami)
I'll be right in the middle there somewhere, which is fine with me...get too far into the thirties, though and I'm not a happy camper.
current forecast means no AC in day and no Heat at night. Mostly sunny and light winds means good outdoors day.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)
They can have it...Snow is what plane tickets are for...
Can't snow. Where is the moisture going to come from lol.
I'LL take the snow over this cold rain any day
1009mb Low added to 18Z map.
Rene could be on its way.
Ike enjoy the last tropical models while you can you won't see them for 6 months :)
TOP
The quietest year contest.
The season is due November 30th.
Yea I hear ya. Going to be that for the next 3 1/2 days up here
Lots of folks here still suffering from Post Hurricane Stress Disorder. End of Nov and 1st strong coldfront cause a big sigh of relief and reason to celebrate. Excuse us if we get a little over-exuberant.
You'll get your chance to laugh later on when it's 35 and we're whining "when is summer gonna come?" - LOL
The only trouble is if your 35,we'll be -10
centered about 200 mi (rough guess) SW of Tampa Bay? Yes.
Ex-Paloma has been removed from 1800Z surface map and low near Pensacola added.
I would much rather have a low in the upper 20s a couple of nights to kill off the skeeters. Some winters (in SE LA) we never get cold enough for that. Having to turn on the heat at night would be worth it.
Hey Cybr,
are we still on for the launch at 7:55pm tomorrow? Haven't thought to check today.
Oh Oh , that invest 95l looks way too close for confort for us...in the TCI
Indeed, Last year many thought that it would snow when temperatures dropped below freezing here in the treasure coast. However, the quantity if moisture in the air was inadequate. But the advection of cold air over the warm oceans caused stratocumulus clouds to form. We only received mere drizzles of cold rain. Snow flurries probably did form during the coldest times. Nonetheless, the atmosphere still lacked moisture content, instability, and sufficiently cold temperatures, as DRAK suggested.
This event took place during early January of 2008....when a vigorous front blasted through the SE U.S.
I am sure you all remember it.
Not expecting a lot to come of it at this point, but as you say, close. Keep an eye on it 'cause it could end up being a rain-maker for you. Little early to tell what will ultimately come of it.
GFDL and HWRF bring it near you with TS winds
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