Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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Afternoon folks.

See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Quoting Seastep:

Thanks
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Government will make a serious mistake if they bail out the Auto industry......it will ruin us as a free enterprise nation.....
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afternoon,all,do we really have to talk about wall street,talking about a depressing subject
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CRS - 7:15pm eastern last night.

Take time at top and then go backwards in time until you hit the time at the bottom.
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328. IKE
12Z HWRF takes 95L toward the Bahamas...Link


12Z GFDL...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I agree.....short selling is risky but, about the only way now......
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445.31 points lost in this week so far....
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G'day,
I seem often to get caught out on the time-stamp on Quikscat images.
Here is a link
If you look way up in left top corner at about 19.5 x 60 there appears to be some circulation. Could someone confirm how recent this image is....
CRS
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324. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
Hello im not sure where the bottom might be on the Dow.......7500?


I think it could easily go lower then that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
DJIA*
8,129.81
-152.85
-1.85%
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yup we just broke the 8000 mark on the Dow
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321. IKE
DOW
292.95
-3.54%
7,989.71
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hello im not sure where the bottom might be on the Dow.......7500?
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319. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
medium huh?

PS anyone got shear maps with them?


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here's the SST

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medium huh?

PS anyone got shear maps with them?
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update!

dow is plunging now to that mark (8000)
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Any thoughts about the new interest?
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314. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
313. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here's a link for y'all to follow the market as a whole

Link
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Here's a link for yall to follow the DJIA

Link
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Quoting IKE:
DOW
94.07
-1.14%
8,188.59



Closing in on below 8,000....


today's low as of now

8,167.72

DJIA was up and down at first but now it's steady on the red
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309. IKE
DOW
94.07
-1.14%
8,188.59



Closing in on below 8,000....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
money...yeah...that seems to be a hot topic lately....

;)

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Quoting NRAamy:
hey dan....how's your "tour guide" doing?

:)


Most recent trip To Disney World last summer. :( He's ready to go somewhere again. Just have to find the time, (and money). :)
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hey dan....how's your "tour guide" doing?

:)
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pcoladan:I would have to disagree looking at the penn state GOM loop,there is still a weak surface circulation there,weak but it is there...could form a hybrid low if it links up with a pre-frontal trough that may form in the GOM, it would enhance the pops for FL and maybe a isolated severe T-storm,but that should be it!!!
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Must be an upper level anti cyclone developing over 95L. Shear is 10 to 20 kts over the area of low pressure. High pressure holding strong on that second front. Hopefully the front doesn't get delayed too much.
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95L models initialized at 21N/63W.

There is a definite swirl at 17N/59W.

NHC has a little circle in that exact spot on the 12Z surface analysis. What does that symbolize?

Link

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Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

think anything could come from her remains?

(despertar del cementerio)????


No surface circulation at all.

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Wow....

Saturn's aurora ~~~ really beautiful.
Quoting Seastep:
137. Bonedog

Look at that Bonedog... very astute.

It made the news:

Link
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paloma(ex)should either die out(finally) or make her way towards sw fla as a thunderstorm along with the front, correct? thanks.
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Hey Ike!

Long time no see!
What a beautiful day in our little piece of paradise! 75°.... not sure I am ready for the cold front coming to visit on Sunday.
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137. Bonedog

Look at that Bonedog... very astute.

It made the news:

Link
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Never knew we had a such thing:

Quoting the NWS:

Statement as of 9:35 am CST on November 13, 2008

... Today is winter weather awareness day in Texas...

The governors division of emergency management... through the
Texas department of public safety... has joined with the National
Weather Service to focus public attention on winter weather
preparedness across Texas as part of winter weather awareness day.

Even in south Texas we are not exempt from winter. South Texas can
have wild swings in temperature. Although snow and ice events are
rare... when they do occur they can have a major impact. If
traveling across the state... you can drive from Summer like
weather into a snow or ice storm... so it is important to be prepared
for winter weather.

To be prepared... it is a good idea to have an emergency kit at home
and in your vehicle. At home... the main concern is loss of power... loss
of heat and shortage of supplies. It is a good idea to have
available a flashlight and extra batteries, a battery powered
radio... and extra non-perishable food and water. In advance of a
winter storm... you should carry extra medicine... baby items and fist
aid supplies in case Road conditions make it difficult to get new
supplies. It is also good to identify an emergency heating source
such as a fireplace... wood stove or space heater.

If considering travel... stay alert to the latest weather forecasts
and warnings in advance of winter storms. These can be found at
the National Weather Service website http://weather.Gov, as well
as through other media outlets. Also check on Road conditions
before heading out. Texas Department of Transportation maintains a
Road conditions web site which includes a map showing the latest
Road conditions across the state...

Http://Apps.Dot.State.TX.US/travel/road_conditions2.Htm

If a winter storm threatens your Route... have a winter safety kit in
your vehicle. This might include blankets... a flashlight with extra
batteries... a first aid kit and a knife... food that is high in
energy and is non-perishable. It should also contain extra
clothing to keep dry, a sack of sand or kitty litter for extra
traction if you get stuck in snow... a shovel... a windshield
scraper and brush.

Dress to fit the season. When it is cold... wear loose fitting... light
weight warm clothing in layers. Trapped air insulates. Layers can
be removed to avoid perspiration and subsequent chill. Outer
garments should be tightly woven, water repellent and hooded. Wear
a hat. Significant body heat loss can be from the head. Try to
stay dry.

For more information on winter weather preparedness... go to the
National Weather Service site on winter weather preparedness and
the the governors department of emergency management web site.


Http://www.Weather.Gov/os/winter/index.Shtml

Http://www.Txdps.State.TX.US/dem



Me: just thought it might be somehow relevant to those who are in the way of the coming cold air mass (or any other stronger air masses) coming thru the southern states
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294. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

think anything could come from her remains?

(despertar del cementerio)????


I doubt it...shear is increasing the further north she goes. She's popped out a thunderstorm now......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
What's left of Paloma.....



Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

think anything could come from her remains?

(despertar del cementerio)????
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291. 786
Orca...at work not time to see models, could you pls tell me what models are predicting a Carib system and where? TIA
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
that's strange

if I copy and paste the WU tropical image 95L appears but if I go to the main page it still isnt there

anyone know why? is it my browser? it can't be cause my browser has been working for this season
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289. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
It's funny that its also missing here but like you said that will probably be updated



It's on there...lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
LOL it just got updated

now to check NHC
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It's funny that its also missing here but like you said that will probably be updated



(please disregard this comment as I experienced some difficulties) (posted at 3:39 GMT)
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286. IKE
What's left of Paloma.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
285. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
95L? what 95L? LOL



It should be on their next update.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
95L? what 95L? LOL

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283. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


Indeed check these sites out

Link

Link

Link

The second link is good for checking if we have a bad day (cause asia is always the 1st to open)


Osama Bin Ladin is probably laughing in his cave.


I see what's left of Paloma heading toward us here in the Florida panhandle....lol.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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