Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008 +1
The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Fire
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Reader Comments
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101. lawntonlookers 8:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Out for the day. I see others are still watching the remains of Paloma. It still looks like a fairly strong low pressure. Have a great evening everyone.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
102. RobDaHood 8:46 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
101. lawntonlookers

Goodnight
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
104. HadesGodWyvern 8:48 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Weather Summary (1800z 12NOV)
============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAYSAK (T0819)
11.0ºN 115.0ºE - 25 knots 1004 hPa

reported as moving south slowly

Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "SIONY" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Pagasa Island.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Siony located at 11.0ºN 115.2ºE or 400 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression "SIONY" is expected to bring rains over Palawan area which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 760 km East of Northern Luzon (17.4°N 130.5°E). The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow or earlier.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
107. IKE 8:50 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Vortex95:
98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.


I was watching it on ESPN last night and fell asleep before it ended. My son has played in tournaments.

It is enjoyable to watch.

2nd place earned over 6 million.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
108. Bonedog 8:56 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Might be the way to go now adays. Sit in a casino having free drinks brought to you and at the end of the day possibly walk out with 9mil

thats a job I could get used to LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
109. Bonedog 8:57 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
LOL look at this.. as the world went to crap more folks went to poker LOL

Main Event Entrants and First Place Prizes
Year Number of Entrants First Place Prize
2000 512 $ 1,500,000
2001 613 $ 1,500,000
2002 631 $ 2,000,000
2003 839 $ 2,500,000
2004 2576 $ 5,000,000
2005 5619 $ 7,500,000
2006 8773 $12,000,000
2007 6358 $ 8,250,000
2008 6844 $ 9,152,416
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
110. RobDaHood 8:58 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Wonder how long til we see them getting big endorsement contracts for soft drinks and tennis shoes?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
112. HadesGodWyvern 9:04 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
106. Vortex95 8:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

---
Palawan and maybe Vietnam may have the redeveloping 24W.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
113. Thundercloud01221991 9:05 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting MichaelSTL:


At least oil prices are also doing the same:

Oil prices hit lowest points for almost two years

10 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices sank Wednesday to the lowest levels since the start of 2007, as traders worried about weaker demand for energy amid a gloomy economic outlook, analysts said.

In London, Brent North Sea crude slumped to 52.75 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since January last year and a massive 64 percent down on its record high of 147.50 reached in July, when fears of supply disruptions had sent prices rocketing.

New York's light sweet crude on Wednesday slid to 56.35 dollars a barrel -- a level not seen since March 2007.


oil prices are even lower then that

$55.81
▼0.35 0.62%
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3670
114. Thundercloud01221991 9:08 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Today marks the 2nd lowest close since the recession began
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3670
115. melwerle 9:08 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Just a note on something I heard on talk radio today - one of the financial guys that I listen to...I hadn't even thought about this...for those that are buyers of gift cards for holiday presents...this year may not be the year to do that for either restaurants or stores...considering how many businesses are folding right now, one never knows whether the store you purchased the gift card at will be around. Just a thought...I usually am the person who does the g/c thing...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
116. Bonedog 9:09 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
BREAKING
NEWS
Dow ends with 400-point loss, pushing the 3-day drop to about 650, on concerns about retail and banking sectors

DOW
411.30
-4.73%
8,282.66

OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
117. IKE 9:15 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices settled at a 21-month low Wednesday as investors worried about a global slowdown in crude demand ahead of the latest U.S. government inventory report.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled down $3.17 to $56.16 a barrel Wednesday. The last time prices traded at this level was Jan. 29, 2007.

Wednesday is also the second day in a row during which oil traded below $60 a barrel, bringing the two-day loss to nearly $7.

The price of oil has steadily been declining for months, falling about 60% from July's all-time high above $147 a barrel as fears about global economic weakness continue to undermine demand for gasoline and other petroleum products.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
118. Bonedog 9:19 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
119. IKE 9:21 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
2nd cold front that moves through the SE USA the first of next week is forecast to make it all the way to Puerto Rico over into the SW Caribbean....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
120. IKE 9:22 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Bonedog:


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT


That is a cool video.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
121. Bonedog 9:24 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
thanks IKE came from a link off of spaceweather.com

besides terrestrial weather I also watch outer space.
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122. RobDaHood 9:28 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
118. Bonedog

Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
123. RobDaHood 9:29 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
124. Bonedog 9:33 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
no problem Rob
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
125. IKE 9:41 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting RobDaHood:
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)


Thanks....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
126. pitviper 9:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Long time lurker but today I have a question. What happened to StormW. Have not seen any posts from him in a few days.
127. RobDaHood 9:47 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
124. Bonedog

I know, but wanted to let you know I really appreciate it when somebody here with similar interest hooks me up with something cool like that.

Am a big fan of science and science fiction, esp anything space or robotics. When someone ask me how I know so many things about so many topics, I tell them I learned half of it from reading (good) science fiction since I was a wee lad. Politics, economics, physics, it's all there. That interest in reading led to to the point that I read anything I get my hands on. Still wish I could get out there (space) one day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
128. RobDaHood 9:51 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
131. IKE 10:08 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting RobDaHood:
126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"


He doesn't post near as much in the winter time.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
132. IKE 10:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
A cold weekend for the SE USA. 18Z GFS at 78 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
133. pitviper 10:12 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Thank you for the information.
134. CybrTeddy 10:16 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251
135. Bonedog 10:20 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Know what you mean Rob. I was the same way. I feel the more knowledge you garner the better decsions you can make.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
136. JetManDo 10:25 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Bonedog:
on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.


Hi Bone, Yes it was somewhat funny that the price of oil went up the last two years and right after the election it started to drop! I wonder who was in the majority the last two years and did nothing to control it. Wonder if someone wanted the economy to get bad just before the election??
Member Since: January 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
137. Bonedog 10:27 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    


This image of the northern polar region of Saturn shows both the aurora and underlying atmosphere(hexagon storm), seen at two different wavelengths of infrared light as captured by NASA’s Cassini spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
138. Bonedog 10:29 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
139. 786 10:33 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
99. not really...we only have one electricity company and they can do just about anything they want as they are the only providers
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140. JetManDo 10:38 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Bonedog:
Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.


I do not think he would benefit from the price of oil, but there were many countries that did! In addition, they try to say, “We are your friend”!! Please give me a break!!
Member Since: January 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
141. Bonedog 10:41 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
143. RobDaHood 10:43 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
In reality though, I read in mid summer that fuel prices were expected to increase, then decrease significantly this fall as refinery capacity came on line. Weakening economy has also caused people to be more conservative in their spending (including fuel usage).
October is often a volitile month for the markets, with the remainder of the year governed by how the markets perceive consumer confidence. This being an election year also contributes to the uncertainty of the markets, which will continue until the markets figure out "what to make" of Obama's policies. The bank crisis has been coming for a long time. Add to this the media hyping any bad economic news, it's pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy.

Not so much a conspiracy, but a convergence of events upon a point in time.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
144. Drakoen 10:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
146. Bonedog 10:53 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
As Dennis Leary once said, "Lifs a [female dog] get a [explicitive] helmet"


In my eyes its all realitive. If your the one making the money your loving this time, if your loosing your shirt you looking for the tallest building. If your somewhere in the middle your just looking to survive until it rebounds.

Thats the only light and silver lining.. our economy will rebound. when? who knows but eventually it will.

Another reason all hell has broken loose is due to the over inflated preices on everything. eventually that bubble was bound to burst and everything will come back into equallibrum and settle, albeit at where prices should have been all along and not at the inflated prices.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
147. JetManDo 10:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Bonedog:
I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.



I know what you are talking about when you talk of the wife having a theory about things, as my wife thinks that the air conditioner technician is conspiring with the power co. to detune the A/C unit so the power bill is higher! I cannot win!!
Member Since: January 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
148. RobDaHood 10:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Conspiracy theories are loads of fun though...

Time to figure out what's for dinner. Will check in later if anythings going on.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 25933
150. IKE 11:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
Quoting Drakoen:
Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.


Yeah...I know. MichaelSTL told me so the other day. I like the 850mb because it's easier to see the troughs.

Thanks though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
151. Bonedog 11:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2008    
LOL Jet, do we have the same wife? Mine believes the oil guy adds dirt to the oil so that the filters and jets clog and we need to have a tech come out and repair everything which costs bundles. Especially at 2am on a sunday in 20 degree weather (don't ask)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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