Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday
The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.
Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.
In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.
Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Saturn's aurora ~~~ really beautiful.
No surface circulation at all.
There is a definite swirl at 17N/59W.
NHC has a little circle in that exact spot on the 12Z surface analysis. What does that symbolize?
Link
:)
Most recent trip To Disney World last summer. :( He's ready to go somewhere again. Just have to find the time, (and money). :)
;)
94.07
-1.14%
8,188.59
Closing in on below 8,000....
today's low as of now
8,167.72
DJIA was up and down at first but now it's steady on the red
Link
Link
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
dow is plunging now to that mark (8000)
PS anyone got shear maps with them?
292.95
-3.54%
7,989.71
8,129.81
-152.85
-1.85%
I think it could easily go lower then that.
I seem often to get caught out on the time-stamp on Quikscat images.
Here is a link
If you look way up in left top corner at about 19.5 x 60 there appears to be some circulation. Could someone confirm how recent this image is....
CRS
12Z GFDL...Link
Take time at top and then go backwards in time until you hit the time at the bottom.
Thanks
See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.
Haha
chilly and rainy here
Hey Bone!
Think this is one for you to keep an eye on. At this point I don't anticipate huge development, but at a glance, what energy there is could slide up the coast and give you some more of that cold and nasty you've been seeing the last few weeks.
Then again, we're talking about "front bumpage" (my new weather word) which is always hard to forecast.
what do any of you think?
I say TS at peak
Maybe this will work....
Possible threat to FLORIDA.
Strange, wonder why?
Any comments on that quite vigorous and persistent swirl at 17N/59.5W?
LOL - Possible threat....that I might need a blanket Sunday night?
NE that sucks. Have family that went through the layoffs and are now scrambeling to find new jobs. These were midlevel execs at Bear Sterns now working at Walmart and such. Also I am watching my retierment dry up faster then a swirl stuck in the SAL.
maybe you should WU mail the people you know to give attention to 95L
don't know if it'll work but worth a try
LOL. Just trying to draw some lurkers out.
Hey, HWRF brings a wicked TD almost to FL! ;)
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