Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

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The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

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Thank you for the information.
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132. IKE
A cold weekend for the SE USA. 18Z GFS at 78 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
131. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:
126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"


He doesn't post near as much in the winter time.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
DOW!! DOW!!! OH NO!!!!! AHHHHHHHHH
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..................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .........................................................................................
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126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
124. Bonedog

I know, but wanted to let you know I really appreciate it when somebody here with similar interest hooks me up with something cool like that.

Am a big fan of science and science fiction, esp anything space or robotics. When someone ask me how I know so many things about so many topics, I tell them I learned half of it from reading (good) science fiction since I was a wee lad. Politics, economics, physics, it's all there. That interest in reading led to to the point that I read anything I get my hands on. Still wish I could get out there (space) one day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
Long time lurker but today I have a question. What happened to StormW. Have not seen any posts from him in a few days.
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125. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)


Thanks....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
no problem Rob
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
118. Bonedog

Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
thanks IKE came from a link off of spaceweather.com

besides terrestrial weather I also watch outer space.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
120. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT


That is a cool video.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
119. IKE
2nd cold front that moves through the SE USA the first of next week is forecast to make it all the way to Puerto Rico over into the SW Caribbean....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
117. IKE
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices settled at a 21-month low Wednesday as investors worried about a global slowdown in crude demand ahead of the latest U.S. government inventory report.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled down $3.17 to $56.16 a barrel Wednesday. The last time prices traded at this level was Jan. 29, 2007.

Wednesday is also the second day in a row during which oil traded below $60 a barrel, bringing the two-day loss to nearly $7.

The price of oil has steadily been declining for months, falling about 60% from July's all-time high above $147 a barrel as fears about global economic weakness continue to undermine demand for gasoline and other petroleum products.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
BREAKING
NEWS
Dow ends with 400-point loss, pushing the 3-day drop to about 650, on concerns about retail and banking sectors

DOW
411.30
-4.73%
8,282.66

OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Just a note on something I heard on talk radio today - one of the financial guys that I listen to...I hadn't even thought about this...for those that are buyers of gift cards for holiday presents...this year may not be the year to do that for either restaurants or stores...considering how many businesses are folding right now, one never knows whether the store you purchased the gift card at will be around. Just a thought...I usually am the person who does the g/c thing...
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Today marks the 2nd lowest close since the recession began
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Quoting MichaelSTL:


At least oil prices are also doing the same:

Oil prices hit lowest points for almost two years

10 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices sank Wednesday to the lowest levels since the start of 2007, as traders worried about weaker demand for energy amid a gloomy economic outlook, analysts said.

In London, Brent North Sea crude slumped to 52.75 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since January last year and a massive 64 percent down on its record high of 147.50 reached in July, when fears of supply disruptions had sent prices rocketing.

New York's light sweet crude on Wednesday slid to 56.35 dollars a barrel -- a level not seen since March 2007.


oil prices are even lower then that

$55.81
▼0.35 0.62%
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112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
106. Vortex95 8:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

---
Palawan and maybe Vietnam may have the redeveloping 24W.

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Quoting IKE:


Jeez...that's terrible.

Congrats to WSOP winner Peter Eastgate. Picks up a cool 9 million for winning the World Series of Poker. Youngest winner ever...at 22.



DOW
420.78
-4.84%
8,273.18
...bombing out like a cat 4 cane.


At least oil prices are also doing the same:

Oil prices hit lowest points for almost two years

10 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices sank Wednesday to the lowest levels since the start of 2007, as traders worried about weaker demand for energy amid a gloomy economic outlook, analysts said.

In London, Brent North Sea crude slumped to 52.75 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since January last year and a massive 64 percent down on its record high of 147.50 reached in July, when fears of supply disruptions had sent prices rocketing.

New York's light sweet crude on Wednesday slid to 56.35 dollars a barrel -- a level not seen since March 2007.
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Wonder how long til we see them getting big endorsement contracts for soft drinks and tennis shoes?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
LOL look at this.. as the world went to crap more folks went to poker LOL

Main Event Entrants and First Place Prizes
Year Number of Entrants First Place Prize
2000 512 $ 1,500,000
2001 613 $ 1,500,000
2002 631 $ 2,000,000
2003 839 $ 2,500,000
2004 2576 $ 5,000,000
2005 5619 $ 7,500,000
2006 8773 $12,000,000
2007 6358 $ 8,250,000
2008 6844 $ 9,152,416
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Might be the way to go now adays. Sit in a casino having free drinks brought to you and at the end of the day possibly walk out with 9mil

thats a job I could get used to LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
107. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.


I was watching it on ESPN last night and fell asleep before it ended. My son has played in tournaments.

It is enjoyable to watch.

2nd place earned over 6 million.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
30 knots sustained winds for 10 mins is still dangerous it borders a moderate strength TS.
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hmmm Palomas still there but not for long the front is sure to push what remains of her out.
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104. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Weather Summary (1800z 12NOV)
============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAYSAK (T0819)
11.0ºN 115.0ºE - 25 knots 1004 hPa

reported as moving south slowly

Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "SIONY" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Pagasa Island.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Siony located at 11.0ºN 115.2ºE or 400 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression "SIONY" is expected to bring rains over Palawan area which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 760 km East of Northern Luzon (17.4°N 130.5°E). The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow or earlier.
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98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.
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101. lawntonlookers

Goodnight
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
Out for the day. I see others are still watching the remains of Paloma. It still looks like a fairly strong low pressure. Have a great evening everyone.
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I'd expect it to go under 600 but its get too late for that but hen again it could hit -700 or it could go up to -200 who knows what late thing can ralley the market sometimes.
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Does Cayman have anti-price gouging laws???
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98. IKE
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!


Jeez...that's terrible.

Congrats to WSOP winner Peter Eastgate. Picks up a cool 9 million for winning the World Series of Poker. Youngest winner ever...at 22.



DOW
420.78
-4.84%
8,273.18
...bombing out like a cat 4 cane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
Wow! Do we sound like whiners or what!
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Only time I saw under $1.00 gas was in Georgea in 1998. It was 89 cents and I was like... woah!!!
Where I live gas has been over a Dollar since the early 90s and for a time in a late 80s.

and bone dog a year more would show a dramatic dip under 60. Oil is still extremely expesnive compared to other times. However with inflation gas should go no lower than $1.50 if it does that deflation may be occuring which contrary to poupular belief is far worse then inflation.
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95. 786
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
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is upward mjo still supposed to happen?
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amazing aint it
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
84. Funny stuff...
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RE 88 & 89

For some reason I like Bonedog better tha IKE today! LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
The Dow(n) Jones induistrial ahhhh remember when it was at 13,000... good times, good times...
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OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
88. IKE

DOW
389.00
-4.47%
8,304.96
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Yea Rob times have changed alot. I was listening to a comedian talk about them today on XM. Some things were just plain funny.

example:

Today airbags My Time fat uncle Joe in the front seat.

Today RPG's My Time Astroids

Today active restraint systems My Time Mom/Dads arm

LOL and to think we survived back then LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
Anybody want to go for orange circle on the remains of Paloma at 5pm. Pressure at 4 day low in nw carribean 29.84. Still no upper level moisture associated with it. Might bring a little more rain as its follows front line ne across fl. latter in the week.
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76. Bonedog
Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot.

Yeah, Times have changed, Had a converation like this with young daughter...

Daughter:
"Dad, the jeans I want are only One hundred dollars!"

Father:
"Who ever told you that the words ONLY and HUNDRED DOLLARS have any business being in the same sentence!"

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
it appears a derechio is starting to develop in the gulf its in its infancy and hopefully sheer will kill it as with 95% of potential derechos.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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