Santa Ana winds ease over Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on November 17, 2008

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The Santa Ana winds have died down over Los Angeles, and winds should remain below 25 mph today through Thursday over the region. This should allow fire fighters to gain control of the three major blazes burning near the city. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph--were recorded at several mountain locations Friday and Saturday, thanks to the major difference in pressure between a strong high pressure system to the northeast of Los Angeles and lower pressure air over the ocean. By 4 pm PST Sunday, though, winds had fallen below 15 mph over the entire region (Figure 1), and a weak sea breeze had formed near the coast. Taking a look at this morning's wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, we can see that winds are below 5 mph over the region. All high wind warnings and fire weather warnings have been canceled for California, but continued hot and dry conditions will slow down efforts of fire fighters to control the fires. The smoke has caused pollution problems in the city, and the Air Quality Index (AQI) for particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) exceeded the EPA standard yesterday. Today's pollution forecast calls for PM2.5 levels in the unhealthy for sensitive groups level, in excess of the EPA standards.


Figure 1. Wundermap (with fire layer turned on) for Los Angeles, California, at 4 pm EST Sunday November 16, 2008. Two major fires, the Sylmar fire to the north, and the Freeway fire to the east, are shown. The black colors show the relative concentration of smoke. The colored circles show the temperature, and the lines going into the circles show the direction the wind is blowing from. The perpendicular lines at the the end of these lines show how strong the wind is blowing. Each longer line is an additional 10 mph, and each shorter perpendicular line is an additional 5 mph. Thus, for the circle at upper right with a 66° temperature, the wind was blowing 15 mph out of the NNE. (Note that we've changed the convention used on marine maps, where these so-called "wind barbs" denote the winds in knots, not mph).

High temperature records
The hot flow of air off the desert set numerous high temperature records across Southern California on Sunday. Records set or tied included 88° in downtown Los Angeles, 93° in Camalillo; 86° at LAX airport; 90° at Long Beach; 89° at Paso Robles; 87° at Santa Maria; 91° at Woodland Hills; 87° at UCLA; 93° at Oxnard; and 87° at Santa Barbara. On Saturday, 30 high temperature records were set or tied across the state of California, including a blistering 93° in downtown Los Angeles (old record, 90° in 1936). The hottest new record was 94° at the Santa Ana Fire Station.

The forecast
Hot and dry conditions will persist over Los Angeles today, then gradually cool Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, winds should reverse and blow cool, moist air from the oceans over the city, allowing fire fighters to gain full control of the fires. By Saturday, the GFS model is indicating a possible return to Santa Ana wind conditions for the weekend, but the ECMWF model disagrees. At this point, it appears we may get a weak Santa Ana wind event this weekend, but nowhere near as strong as the one that just ended.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Sunday, November 16, 2008 at 11:30 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands, joined by a larger plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
The Portlight.org charity is sponsoring a new nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of their ongoing efforts, specifically to provide Christmas presents (and maybe a big party) for kids and families in the Gulf Coast areas devastated by Hurricane Ike. They need 100 people across the country to commit to walking one mile this Saturday, November 22, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where they want to walk--the local park, the mall, anywhere. Please support this worthwhile effort!

Jeff Masters

Sayre fire (anvilhead)
Sayre fire
Sayre Fire (anvilhead)
Sayre Fire

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Down to 16°F here this morning. The lake in the backyard has frozen over. Winter is here...
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Quoting RTLSNK:
Winter has arrived, 25*F in Macon, Ga, leaf invasion has started, grass is beige, wolf spiders are trying to get into my garage.


I hate it when they do that - LOL
Don't know why, but big hairy spiders that charge at you creep me out worse than sharks, barracuda, or morays (well maybe not morays)!

Got down to about 45 here 41 in town. on the rise but breezy

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 99 Comments: 32964
Winter has arrived, 25*F in Macon, Ga, leaf invasion has started, grass is beige, wolf spiders are trying to get into my garage.
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499. beell
Quoting Bobbyweather:

2005 will be hard lol


True! Just curious if there was a correlation to be made. If the criteria for calling invests stays in step with a perception held by some that the criteria for naming storms has changed.

Yeah, maybe I should worry about something else lol!
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Quoting beell:
Thanks, Taz,
Always had an interest in the number of Invests and the number of storms year to year
36 Invests/16 Named Storms (and 1 TD)

Now, could you go back and do the last 10 years lol?

2005 will be hard lol
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In the morning here, the temp was -7C (19F).
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22 here in western NY with snow showers
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495. beell
Thanks, Taz,
Always had an interest in the number of Invests and the number of storms year to year
36 Invests/16 Named Storms (and 1 TD)

Now, could you go back and do the last 10 years lol?
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24 degrees F this moring
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area of interest 10n 47w. although there is unfavourable westerly wind shear, there is some cyclonic turning in tne mid levels
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Aquamarine is so in this year...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
491. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03 2008-2009
06:00 AM UTC November 19 2008
======================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (999 hPa) located at 9.4S 78.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.8S 81.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 10.0S 84.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=======================
Thunderstorm activity associated to the system has organized over last night. The system is quasi-stationary, but should track eastwards and intensify. Regularly within a rather favorable environment.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46307
490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
4:00 PM WDT November 19 2008
=============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category One (993 hPa) located at 11.2S 98.0E or 170 kms northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-southeast at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Anika is located to the northeast of the Cocos Islands and is expected to continue moving away from the islands on an east to southeast track. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are no longer expected at the Cocos Islands.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
80 NM in the northeastern quadrant
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant
60 NM in the southeastern quadrant
80 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.0S 100.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 13.0S 101.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.5S 104.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.5S 109.5E - (TROPICAL LOW)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
Cyclone WARNING is now cancelled for the Cocos Islands

Additional Information
=======================
The system developed rapidly over the last 24 hours. Most convection is located on the western side of the system due to moderate northeasterly shear. Based on a curved band or shear pattern a DT 3.0 has been assigned. The system is expected to develop over the next 24 hours and then begin to weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and experiences an increase in wind shear due to the approach of a mid-level trough.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46307
A fairly large Quake has hit the following:

Magnitude 6.2 - PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
I just completed updating my Blog if anyone would like to review....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
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Good Evenig. I am watching a Sfc low presure form north of Venezuela this night I am tracking the presure donw the area and in Caracas drop from 1009 to 1006 in thre hours the aparent low is moving north and can emerge in the caribbean. Also the southwestern caribbean is full of energy. We may have another tropical system soon.
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here is my last update on this this hurricane season here how we did and looking forword too doing it all overe next year and it looks like 90L to 99L all had there ch of being a name storm this year and yes the old rate 94L be came a name storm 2 times



round 1

90L be came ARTHUR

91L bust

92L be came BERTHA

93L bust

94L be came DOLLY

95L bust

96L be came CRISTOBAL

97L bust

98L bust

99L bust


round 2

90L bust

91L be came ED

92L be comes Fay

93L bust

94L be comes Gustav

95L be comes HANNA

96L bust

97L be comes IKE

98L bust

99L be comes JOSEPHINE


round 3


90L bust

91L bust

92L bust

93L be comes KYLE

94L bust ???

95L be comes LAURA

96L be comes Marco

97L be comes NANA

98L be comes OMAR

99L be comes TD 16


round 4

90L bust

91L bust

92L bust

93L be comes PALOMA

94L bust

95L bust
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485. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Bureau of Meteorology TCWC Perth, Australia (90E-125E)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Central Indian Ocean 90E-110E)
=============================================
A second low near 10S 80E (99S) is expected to move eastwards over the next few days. Model guidance suggests it could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours and may move east of 90E during Friday.

Potential for a second tropical cyclone [excluding TC Anika] between 90-110 E:

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
----------------------------------
Thursday : Low
Friday : Moderate
Saturday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46307
Night everyone, stay warm.
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478 - North - I was about post that Macon was 31.2*F as of 11 PM headed for 25 when I saw your post about 6* and -22 windchill? Do you live on that mountain?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

No.Not many people do. It is 26 here. Night everyone.
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481. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Central Indian Ocean 90E-110E)
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category One (995 hPa) located at 10.9S 97.4E or 155 kms north-northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-southeast at 20 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Anika is located to the north of the Cocos Islands and is expected to maintain an east to southeast movement over the next few days. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop over the Cocos Islands this afternoon as the tropical cyclone passes to the north of the Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46307
#25c. The Space Tether Experiment

A Little Physics and A Lot of String


Used to hear about an idea for a space station held in place by a cable from the ground. Among the problems I would think would be weather e.g. wind loads, shear, ice, etc..
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478 - North - I was about post that Macon was 31.2*F as of 11 PM headed for 25 when I saw your post about 6* and -22 windchill? Do you live on that mountain?
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Mount Mitchell,North Carolina

10:30p.m Temperature = 6
10:30p.m Wind Chill = -22

This mountain holds N.C lowest temp of -34 and is one of the highest peaks.Snow flurries have been reported on the summit even in the summer months of June, July, and August. The summit is often windy, with the record being 286 km/h or 178 MPH.[3]

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nite pot
me too
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10139
Was not me that did it, Rob. Was that guy Sheph. LOL
Bubble what? I cant even pronounce it....

It gave me a headache, so I am going to follow my own advice. 2 aspirin, a quart of spirit, and a prayer.
See you all tomorrow, if I make it thru the night.
Peace.
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Quoting theshepherd:
They bubble neuculated....


Yes, but it's okay, cause they are actually blogging in an alternative timeline...nite.
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They bubble neuculated....
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Wow pottery, ya left em all speachless...gotta go do some software upgrades so see yall later.
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Konk, its 52 outside, and you are waiting for it to become necessary to turn the heat on ??? Well, you are personally responsible for the dire straights that we oil producers find ourselves in. Have a heart LOL!
What ever happened to the spirit of "help your nieghbour " and all that.?
Come to think of it, surely the price went up today when those freaks grabbed that tanker ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24687
Quoting theshepherd:
Oh great !!!
Bubble neulculation !!!
That's the "theory that proves" how our parallel universe was formed according to some "leading quantum physicists"
on the History Channel. If you commit a crime here it's OK he says because you get away with it in the parallel one.... And we pay their salaries!!!!!
Ya think they could spend their time better working on a better elec motor and more efficient batteries.
Jesus H Christ, I need a drink...
Way too deep for this group tonight!
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Off too - early start in the am.
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hello surf
hi all just checkin in
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Oh great !!!
Bubble neulculation !!!
That's the "theory that proves" how our parallel universe was formed according to some "leading quantum physicists"
on the History Channel. If you commit a crime here it's OK he says because you get away with it in the parallel one.... And we pay their salaries!!!!!
Ya think they could spend their time better working on a better elec motor and more efficient batteries.
Jesus H Christ, I need a drink...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10139
Quoting surfmom:
Good night ALL
Night SF - me too - yuck work tomorrow - the old 7:30-5:30!
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Only time I want the heat on is in the morning when I'm trying to get ready for work - takes too long to warm up though - lol
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Quoting pottery:
Press, I told you all earlier, I'm contagious. Take 2 aspirin, and a quart of spirit. And say a prayer....
(which is where all this started from I believe)
I'm off too, busy day tomorrow -- thanks for the laughs -- I love it when I leave here --happy ,happy Good night ALL
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Keep Strong, Press.
Good night to you.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24687
RDH - find typically it doesn't get as cold as they predict but it sure feels colder than it is - thermometer showing 52 outside. Refuse to turn the heat on until really necessary!
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Take care press...will peek in tomorrow.
(okay, now that sounds wrong...)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 99 Comments: 32964
453, Mom. Hang in there. This too shall pass.

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24687
Hi Keeper, thought of you today on my run... there's an Osprey that likes to hang out on the tip top pole of a bridge I run across - it's like he guards the entrance to the key I run to -- I gave him your name "Keeper of the Gate" Don't see him all the time -- but when I do it's either a great run or a great surf
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alright fine people. .. I need my beauty rest....gotta spend two days on the road with stormjunkie....see ya'll on the road...
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Zoo: I did see the shuttle and it was wonderful! I imagine it is pretty nippy down there too - must make a trip to visit family soon!
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Press, I told you all earlier, I'm contagious. Take 2 aspirin, and a quart of spirit. And say a prayer....
(which is where all this started from I believe)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24687
Quoting surfmom:
Presslord, my eldest just finished a Dive job in SC -- he passed through Charleston -- He loved the place, the people, the architecture.....did say he say some he saw some broad with a cigar in her mouth and huge whatever's banging on doors trying to raise money for Portlight.org
And this started out so nice and sincere! LOL - he'll never live this down.
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Hi Conchy -- did you get to see the shuttle lift off on Friday?
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as of 935pm its 22 wind chill 14 Brrrr
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Pottery -- I am in the wrong place -- bring on the dengue, scorps & centipeds.... anything but all the clothes I have to wear
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pottery....remind me in August that I'm complaining about the cold.....
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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