The 2008 Flying Reindeer Forecast
Santa's reindeer will be hitting the skies tomorrow, and the official Weather Underground Flying Reindeer Forecast (FRF) calls for some tricky turbulence and tough sledding for Santa in some regions of the world. As Santa begins his adventure, temperatures will be a crisp -20 degrees at the North Pole Workshop. Foggy conditions will require Rudolph's red nose to light the way, since the light winds blowing simultaneously from the south and north at the Pole (think about that for a second, it's true!) will not be strong enough to disperse the fog. As Santa heads south through Siberia into China, he'll be riding a strong jet of polar air that could bring some tricky turbulence. Santa's sleigh will be heavily loaded at this point, and he'll have to negotiate the turbulent skies with great caution to avoid dumping any of his precious cargo. Fortunately, heavy snows cover much of China and eastern Asia, allowing smooth rooftop landings for the sleigh.
As Santa heads south to the Australian continent, the sledding gets much tougher. He'll have to dodge Tropical Cyclone Billy, along Australia's northwest coast. With hot summer temperatures prevailing across Australia, Santa's team will have to execute pinpoint rooftop landings to avoid showering sparks on the dry, fire-prone vegetation. As Santa heads west across Indonesia into southern Asia, he'll need to call upon the thunderstorm avoidance skills of his reindeer, Donner and Blitzen. These storm-savvy critters, named after the German words for thunder and lightning, are experts at sniffing out turbulence-free routes through seemingly impenetrable areas of thunderstorms.
Approaching Turkey, Santa will have to avoid the razor-sharp blue triangles of a cold front. Once through the front, though, he'll find ideal conditions over Turkey and Eastern Europe, where cold temperatures and snowy rooftops abound. However, the sledding quickly degrades over Western Europe, where only Scandinavia and the Alps can expect a white Christmas.
The Western Hemisphere portion of the Flying Reindeer Forecast calls for smooth flying over South America and the Caribbean. But the best conditions of Santa's entire journey await over the United States and Canada, where a series of major snow storms have left excellent rooftop snows. In the Northeast U.S., though, it'll be slow slogging for Santa, with heavy rains expected in an advance of a strong cold front expected to track through on Christmas Eve. The cold front will bring thunderstorms to the Southeast, and Donner and Blitzen will be called upon to safely guide Santa's sleigh through the front to the Southern U.S., where smooth sailing and clear skies will prevail. Excellent sledding awaits Santa in the Midwest and Northwest, where fresh snow from the latest in a series of significant winter storms will delight Santa's reindeer. However, significant rains over Southern California could make for some dangerous mudslide conditions. Santa may be forced to break into his stash to find boogie boards intended for California kids, to help him ride out the mudflows. Santa's final leg northwards across Alaska to the North Pole should be mostly uneventful, and we can expect that clear skies over the Pole upon Santa's return will make for a beautiful Christmas scene as Rudolph guides the sleigh to a perfect landing.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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crank up the computer for music and a link to track Santa at my Blog for the kids and big kids..lol......there are 47 songs that take about 3 hours of playing if anyone would like...
The Wife helped me alot to produce.
Merry Christmas everyone....
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-SIX
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
12:45 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================
At 12:00 am WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [949 hPa] located at 17.7S 118.3E or 295 kms north of Port Hedland and 370 kms north-northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track during today.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during today if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie
Remarks
Dvorak Intensity T5.5, Raw DT 6.5 (130 knots(1 min))
And I hope we ALL have a Happy New Year!
My sandbox is quite beautiful -- there might be waves, but I'm too tired from work.,,,BRB Nope--no waves 1ft southy is NOT rideable -- no waves for Christmas -- Just right temps for a T-shirt, sweet breeze and a hot Sun... everything is sparkling
From Australia to Siberia in one day. That suit must have some air conditioning on it.
Link
Mom...cancer...one days drive from most anywhere east of the continental divide...Christmas.
Might I be bold enough to suggest that someone should certainly be with her (assuming you/others are on the same continent)? Totally not meaning to offend here; you could call it advice. Who knows, you might regret not being there someday (trust me, from personal experience). OK, enough of that.
Merry Christmas, all.
I have truly enjoyed all the knowledgeable posts and had some good laughs on the 'fun' days.
Thanks to all!
Just repeating, for those that may have missed it--
Have a Very Happy and Joyful Christmas, and a most Wonderful New Year.
It has been a great experience for me, in this Community this year.
Thank you, to all the WUBA Members, all over, who make it Special.
Particular thanks to Dr. Jeff, who makes it all happen.
A Toast is in order...
Cheers !
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-SEVEN
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:50 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================
At 3:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [948 hPa] located at 17.6S 117.9E or 310 kms north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kms north-northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to Mardie.
The Cyclone WARNING from Pardoo to Port Hedland has been cancelled.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================
12 HRS: 17.3S 116.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 16.8S 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 15.6S 112.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.1S 110.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Remarks:
At 18UTC Billy was located well to the north of Port Hedland moving steadily west northwest. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours, with Dvorak estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours. Raw DT numbers reached 6.5 on the 0930Z and 1030Z images based on a W surround with CMG/DG Eadj but more recently a time averaged DT number of 5.5 is attained using the eye pattern.
Billy is likely to be at peak intensity over the next 6 hours then increasing shear will affect the system thereafter and once the system moves west of 115E - on 26 December - the oceanic heat content becomes less favourable. The system is then expected to weaken rapidly given its small size.
Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining well off the Pilbara coast.
While it is unlikely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, several ensemble members of two generally skilful NWP models indicate that a southwesterly or southerly motion is still possible, so cautionary community warnings are being maintained until the risk further diminshes.
...so, if you think any good could come of it, please feel free to post it elsewhere as well...
In late Februaruy of this year I was diagnosed with Stage 2 melanoma...it was a black spot about an inch long and a half inch wide on my lower left eyelid...
The first surgery (to remove the cancer) was in March, the week before my 49th birthday...the second (to begin rebuilding the eyelid) was later the same month...the final surgery (to finish the eyelid work) was in late August..two and a half weeks before Ike hit...
so...
I spent a good portion of this year dealing with facing fifty...fearing death...anger with God...questioning my faith....wondering if I'd spent too much of my life building my financial pile and not enough serving others...generally pondering some pretty deep issues...
suffice it to say: much of this year was spent in physical, spiritual, and emotional agony...
the reaction of this community after Ike (described in the guest blog Dr. Masters was kind enough to let me write) paid it all off for me...
my anger toward God was resolved....clarity of priorities became obvious...my faith was restored...and strengthened...
and I have this community to thank for it all....
Merry Christmas everybody
Little Bill is growing up ;D
yup winds should start to ease a little after tomorrow.. (cooler waters at least)
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-EIGHT
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:45 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================
At 6:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [948 hPa] located at 17.5S 117.5S or 335 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kilometres north of Karratha 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of the Pilbara coast and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to Mardie.
---
no change in intensity or pressure
Being part of the WU-community has been a wunderfull eyperience. Although I lurk most of the time I still feel part of you all.
Presslord - good to hear you solved some important questions. Often it needs a hard experience to face these issues. I do hope the cancer is in control and you can start the new year with fresh hope. Wish you all the best.
To track him this year on the official NORAD Tracks Santa website, go to www.noradsanta.orgLink
To track him in Google Earth, go to www.noradsanta.org/en/track3d.html
Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: -41 sec ago
73 °F / 23 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 10 mph / 17 km/h / 4.6 m/s from the East
Pressure: 30.27 in / 1025 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft / 457 m
Scattered Clouds 3500 ft / 1066 m
Mostly Cloudy 8000 ft / 2438 m
(Above Ground Level)
I got practically nothing done today, and I had PLANS!!!
Gene Phillip Winters
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-NINE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
9:50 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================
At 9:00 am WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [953 hPa] located at 17.5S 117.3E or 340 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kilometres north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system moving on a general westerly track well off the Pilbara coast. It is likely to continue on a westerly to northwesterly track and GALES are no longer expected on the Pilbara coast.
---
no more land warnings ^_^
Nite all
==================================
12 HRS: 17.4S 116.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 16.7S 114.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.0S 112.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.7S 110.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
REMARKS:
Billy was located by radar and satellite imagery well to the north of Karratha
moving steadilyto the west. The period intensification ceased overnight with the eye becoming partially obscured by IR imagery, although microwave shows a clear eye still
evident.
Dvorak DT/FT=5.0 based on eye pattern White surround 6.0 less 1.0 eye adjustment W/CMG. CI held at 5.5. estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours.
Billy is likely to continue a westerly then northwesterly track well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. A change to a more southerly track is not expected and the threat of a coastal impact has passed.
A slow to moderate weakening is expected particularly when the system moves over
lower sea surface temperatures west of 115E on 26 December. Although it is possible that the system may remain at cyclone intensity for some days over open waters.
Cheers and happy holidays to all.
Sheri
This community is like your neighborhood pub in cyber space!
and Santa is in Mexico!! xD
Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com
Merry Christmas DrM and all fellow WU members..
Christmas!
{{Dr.Master's and Family}}!
Rays,Wobbie and Boys
SWFL SURFERS: Well we just didn't get any.
Almost always had surf for the Holidays..... not so this year. 2006 - we had groundswell, 2007 we had a cold front -- this year...a flatspell. Gas is cheap -- so if you can run away -- go to where the sunrises.
IT IS A FANTASTIC DAY.
Merry Christmas to you :)
It is a fantastic day.. its not snowing, and it appears we are going back to our normal temperatures.. that also has its bad points.. two feet of snow melting in about three days with the help of rain.... can you say flooding :(
Ahhh the winter season and Holidays.
May everyone have a great day, filled with family, friends, and angels.
Hey Orca - hope you don't live down hill!
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