Well, it's been another crazy weather year in 2008 here on planet Earth. As we look back on the year, I want to thank all of you for participating in the unique community we've built here at Weather Underground to help document, understand, mourn, and celebrate the ways weather impacts our lives. Special thanks go to all of you who helped out those affected by this year's destructive hurricanes. As we look ahead towards 2009, I'm sure you're wondering what's on my Christmas wish list for the coming year. Hmmm, let's see--let's start with money to fund improved hurricane intensity forecasts, a new QuikSCAT satellite...and more data!
More data, more data,
Right now and not later.
Our storms are distressing,
Our problems are pressing.
We can brook no delay
For theorists to play.
Let us repair
To the principle sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.
For data are solid,
Though dull and though stolid;
Consider their aptness,
Their matter-of-factness.
Theory is confusion,
A snare and delusion,
A dastardly dare,
A culpable crime.
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.
No need to be weary
Of the mysteries of theory.
We only must look
At the data we took.
Immediately inspired,
Grasp the answers required.
What are so rare,
As reason and rhyme?
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.
More data, more data,
From pole to equator;
We'll gain our salvation
Through mass mensuration.
Thence flows our might,
Our sweetness, our light.
Our spirits full fair, our souls sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.
It shall come to pass, even in our days,
That ignorance shall vanish and doubt disappear.
Then shall men survey with tranquil gaze
The ordered elements shorn of all fear.
Thus to omniscience shall we climb,
Measuring everything, everywhere, all the time.
Poem credit: A. Fleisher. Originally published in 1957 in the Proc. Sixth Weather Radar Conf., American Meteorology Society, Boston, MA, P. 59. Slightly modified by Peter Black, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
Happy Holidays, everyone!
Jeff Masters
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Anyone want to trade a place where there are no tornadoes for a nice hobby acreage in tornado alley in Arkansas??? LOL.
P.S. The "modify comment" and "quote" buttons suck. They don't even work about 60% of the time, and just result in a reloading of the whole page.
Blessings and Light,
Texas Sassy
Wait. I thought they chased Proenza out because he really wanted a new QuickSCAT satellite and they said it wasn't necessary. Now a year later it is? Am I wrong?
Caused 27 Billion dollars USD damage
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast For Area Between 125E-142E
2:15 PM ACST December 27 2008
================================
A Tropical Low, [1003 hPa] located over the Cape York Peninsula is moving westwards. This low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria overnight and is expected to continue on a west or southwest track, to be over land in the Roper-McArthur District on Monday. Some deepening may occur as the system moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and a northwest monsoonal burst develops to the north. However, the low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.
Just a little joke, the space shuttle is incapable of reaching that altitude. We do need a new QuickSCAT.
Storm Force Winds Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy
3:50 PM WDT December 27 2008
===============================
At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, CAT 2 [982 hPa] located 15.1S 112.9E or 770 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west-northwest at 4 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0
Storm-Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center
Gale-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in western quadrant
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.2S 112.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.6S 111.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.5S 108.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.4S 106.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Beautiful Morning in SWFL - the fingers of dawn stretched across the dawn sky -- just love walking the dog in these early hours - listening to all the birds sing their wake-up songs -- the day still fresh with out too much imprint from humans.
The Barn & horses beckon me in just a few -- wishing it was just a tad bit cooler for the Polo Practice - will probably have to hose the horses back end legs & chest to help keep them cool.
Certainly would appreciate a good rainy day here -- it's been a long time -- Like Skyepony mentioned -- need some rain, a bit of cooler temp. for winter rye, and pasture grasses to re-seed and grow. I''m already bringing in huge Hay Bales to supplement.
Catch you all Later
yes, my videos are in HD format
There will be a high threat for severe weather later today as a mesoscale cyclone develops along the baroclinic zone near northern Texas. Surface winds indicate that the lower level convergence is strong; and the upper level jet stream and an adjacent equatorial ridge should help provide better upper level diffluence.
There is sufficient energy for a severe weather outbreak today. The low pressure system along the frontal zone and the strong surface winds associated with it helps plenty of warm air advection throughout much of the Midwest. The current Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values are adequate for supercellular thunderstorm development. CAPE values are 2000 J/Kg , and LI values are -5.0 over much of eastern Oklahoma, and southeastern Kansas, which is favorable for severe weather. There is also an outside chance of that tornadogenesis may occur within some of the supercells this afternoon. There is an ample quantity of wind shear to help the drive the rotation within the supercellular storms. The jet stream winds are primarily from the west-southwest blowing about 120 MPH, and the surface winds are mostly from the south and southeast at times, blowing about 15-20 MPH. Thus, both directional and speed are quite substantial, and will therefore help increase vorticity values within the supercellular storns. In addition to the high shearing winds, the overall energy is favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak. The lifting mechanisms are vigorous, and will likely grow more favorable during this afternoon as day time heating enhances vertical motion, and the energy available for lifting.
The primary threat will be in eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas
OVERALL THREATS
Severe thunderstorms
Isolated tornadoes
Hail
Wind damage (i.e downburst and derechos)
I am planning on making weather forecasts and analyses using my voice. I believe it will have a greater impact on my audience.
Do you guys think its a good Idea?
It's an excellent idea.
I agree and Happy Holidays to all!
... well it might be nice to have a wave or two to surf...... spouse pulled down the kayak and even though domestics are shouting my name.... the song of the Ocean is calling me louder -- if I can't get Captn' Jack Sparrow -- I'll go find Kind Neptune..... I'm running away... for a little while
I hated it november
Today's SPC severe reports
Ranging from Utility poles blown over (30 of them!) to roofs lifted from homes. 60 and 70 mph gusts measured in multiple states. Shingles, and branches, and fireworks stands...oh my.
Hope those folks are paying attention to warnings from a WX radio or the like.
Talk about a White Christmas! Teton Village, WY. Dec. 25, 2008
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
407 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-111-197-INC073-089-111-
127-280300-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-081228T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCHENRY IL-BOONE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-KANE IL-DEKALB IL-DUPAGE IL-
GRUNDY IL-KANKAKEE IL-KENDALL IL-WILL IL-LA SALLE IL-NEWTON IN-
JASPER IN-LAKE IN-PORTER IN-
407 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR
PORTER...LAKE...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...EASTERN LA
SALLE...WILL...KENDALL...NORTHERN KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...DUPAGE...
DEKALB...KANE...COOK...LAKE...EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES...
AT 405 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. IN ADDITION...THE EQUIVALENT OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW AND ICE MELT HAS BEEN RELEASED. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED MANY FLOODED ROADS...CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE DITCHES.
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH 600 PM.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE CHICAGO METRO AREA INCLUDING THE
CITY OF CHICAGO.
RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADS...VIADUCTS...
UNDERPASSES...CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
AREAS AND KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOOD WATERS.
DO NOT GO INTO A FLOODED BASEMENT. THERE MAY BE AN ELECTRIC SHOCK
HAZARD IF FLOOD WATER COVERS ELECTRICAL OUTLETS OR APPLIANCES.
Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab.Link
The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. We specialize in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for re
earch, education, and state emergency response.
Unusual Weather "Blankets" Louisiana!! Link
Dish Antenna on roof Dec 11th Link
And also interrupted reception of the GOES-12 satellite!
Latest Image of the Month.
Snow cover West and n'west of Lake Pontchartrain Dec-12th Link
After cleaning the mold off the dish spray it down good with silicone spray or even a couple good coats of car wax. Really helps as a release agent for ice. Works wonders on my snowblower in the slush and wet snow.
Instead of using computers as glorified crystal balls, government needs to use computer time to study the various cycles(particularly for North America the el Nino / la Nina Southern Oscillation) that affect climate. This cycle along with the the Atlantic Oscillation may affect hurricane development and severity.
Scientists have only recently learned that the sun's radiation output varies over short time periods in addition to the variation associated with the 11 year sunspot cycle. Over the long term earth's changing relationship with the sun through the Milankovitch cycles is responsible for major climate changes such as ice ages and periods when the earth was much warmer than today.
Astrophysicists who have examined past records of sunspot activity believe the sun may be entering a period of reduced activity as part of a long term (multi century) solar sunspot cycle. More research is needed in this area because the last quiet period was associated with significantly lower temperatures in the northern hemisphere.
More research is needed in the area of the biology of rainfall. Scientists have discovered that the bacteria that cause frost to form on plants may play a role in rainfall, possibly by causing water vapor to condense on dust particles.
Meteorologists need to abandon long disproved 19th Century beliefs. In the 19th Century scientists believed that atoms were the smallest particles of matter, "dark ray"[infrared radiation] from the ground heated the atmosphere (by air molecules absorbing the radiation and converting it to heat energy) and greenhouses stayed warm by trapping infrared radiation.
During the physics revolution Sir J.J. Thomson proved that atoms were actually composed of smaller charged particles when he discovered the electron in 1897. R.W. Wood proved that trapping IR didn't cause greenhouses to stay warm in 1909. Niels Bohr received a Nobel Prize for his research in 1913 indicated that absorbing specific wavelengths of light changed the energy state of a molecule's electrons rather than causing it to become hotter.
Meteorologists need to recognize that the 19th Century concept of a black body cannot apply to earth. The black body model is a simple linear model involving the case of a solid in a vacuum. The model cannot apply to a planet with a largely liquid surface surrounded by a gaseous envelope because such a system is extremely chaotic. In fact meteorologists played a primary role in establishing the math/science field of chaos theory which is the most important development in math science theory in the last 50 years.
Those who believe that earth is a simple radiation in radiation out system fail to understand that the sun is the sole source of energy for earth's biosphere.
futuremet did.
Can you please fix it futuremet?
Just click "hide" on his post and it will be fixed.
Wow...89 posts on here in 4 days.
Hi Ike - was noticing the same things about the posts - must be a new all time record.
fixed...sorry
Blog just completely dies in the off-season.
Thanks futuremet.
Nice! good morning everyone.
Obama.
Looking back over my columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.
By Christopher Booker
Last Updated: 10:59AM GMT 28 Dec 2008 AP
The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".
Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.
First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.
Ever shriller and more frantic has become the insistence of the warmists, cheered on by their army of media groupies such as the BBC, that the last 10 years have been the "hottest in history" and that the North Pole would soon be ice-free – as the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.
Even the more cautious scientific acolytes of the official orthodoxy now admit that, thanks to "natural factors" such as ocean currents, temperatures have failed to rise as predicted (although they plaintively assure us that this cooling effect is merely "masking the underlying warming trend", and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade).
Just amazing.
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