Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Looking back at Hurricane Gustav's record 211 mph wind gust
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on December 30, 2008 +3
As we look back at the weather events of 2008, perhaps the most impressive record set during the year occurred during Hurricane Gustav, which pounded Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane in August. Gustav set a new world record for highest wind gust ever measured in a hurricane. As Gustav passed over the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008, a wind gust of 211 mph (94.4 m/s) was recorded (it was originally pegged at 212 mph, but has been "downgraded" to 211 mph after an official review by the World Meteorological Organization). The powerful winds blew down the anemometer, and it is possible that higher gusts occurred after the instrument failed. Not only is this the highest wind speed ever measured in a hurricane, it is the second highest wind gust ever measured at a non-mountain location on Earth, and is the third highest wind gust ever measured on the surface of the planet. The highest wind gust in recorded history is the amazing 253 mph reading recorded on Barrow Island, Australia, during Tropical Cyclone Olivia in 1996. The second highest wind speed ever measured was 231 mph (370 km/hr) on the top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, on April 12, 1934, during passage of an extratropical storm. The fourth highest wind gust on record was the 207 mph gust measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972. The previous highest wind gust measured in a hurricane was 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the notorious 1938 "Long Island Express" hurricane.


Figure 1. Anemometer used to measure the record 211 mph gust in Hurricane Gustav. Gustav's powerful winds flattened the instrument against the roof of the observing station. Image credit: Jose M. Rubiera Torres, Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba.

Is this a believable record?
The instrument used for the measurement in Gustav was a Dines pressure tube anemometer mounted on the roof of the weather office. According to Jose M. Rubiera Torres of Cuba's Instituto de Meteorologia, "The graph is neat and the instrument was in perfect technical working condition. The wind peaked up to 340 km/h and then the anemometer mast fell over the concrete roof of the station's building, sharply interrupting the measurement. The graph [Figure 2], shows that wind gusts were increasing at a regular pace with time, until the instrument broke down when it got to the 340 km/h mark." Dines anemometers have a proven track record of reliability, and have been used in Cuba for over 60 years. A formal committee under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) certified the record in 2009.


Figure 2. Trace of the Dines anemometer used to measure the record 211 mph gust in Hurricane Gustav. Image credit: Jose M. Rubiera Torres, Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba.

How did such a strong gust occur?
At the time Hurricane Gustav moved over the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station, the storm was rated a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph, gusting to 185 mph. When the peak wind gust of 211 mph was measured at 22:35 GMT, the western eyewall of Gustav was over the anemometer site, as seen on Cuban radar (Figure 3). The town of Paso Real de San Diego is at an elevation of about 40 meters, and lies 25 km inland, about 12 km south of a rugged line of mountains up to 700 meters high. The counter-clockwise flow of air around Gustav's eyewall meant that the winds arriving at Paso Real de San Diego were forced to pass over these mountains first. The mountains probably focused and accelerated the winds through gaps between the peaks, and the air accelerated further as it rushed downhill under the force of gravity. Strong downbursts due to collapsing precipitation cores inside Gustav's eyewall probably contributed to the extreme gusts. When hurricanes make landfall, the intense thunderstorm cells that comprise the eyewall sometimes collapse suddenly, sending a downward cascade of intense winds to the surface. When this rush of wind hits the ground, it spreads out in all directions, forming a strong surface wind event known as a downburst. It has been theorized that some of the extreme damage noted in Florida during Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 may have been associated with downbursts from collapsing eyewall thunderstorm cells. This behavior may also be responsible for some of the extreme damage in Mississippi from Hurricane Katrina. Animations of infrared satellite imagery available from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog show that the eyewall of Gustav collapsed during passage over the high mountains to the north of Paso Real de San Diego, but this occurred after the world record wind gust was measured.


Figure 3. Radar image of Hurricane Gustav (top) at 22:25 GMT on August 30 2008, five minutes before the world record 211 mph hurricane wind gust was measured. The site of the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station where the record was set is marked with a red dot. A topographic map (bottom) shows the line of mountains up to 1200 meters high that lies just north of the town. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the eye of Gustav brought the strongest winds of Gustav across the mountain range then downhill to Paso Real de San Diego. Radar image credit: Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba. Topographic map image credit: Wikipedia.

Note: this post was updated in 2010 to reflect the official WMO review of Gustav's wind gust, plus the addition of the new World Record wind gust set in TC Olivia in 1996.

Jeff Masters
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1051. pottery 5:56 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Hello there.
A nice, lazy day going on here.
Scattered showers persist. The place is Damp and Muddy. The weeds are taking over. The car needs cleaning. The wife is Humming a Joyful Ditty.
I'm all right, Jack......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20718
1052. GBlet 6:03 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Seems strange that we have not had our usual storm yet. Usually happens right after the holidays. I could really use a snow day or 2.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1054. GBlet 6:09 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Does anyone remember what mask type that patrap talked about using for storm cleanup. We are remodeling and husband has crappy lungs, so I want him protected during this tear out.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1055. GBlet 6:13 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
HELLO, HELLO, HELLO, is there anybody in there?
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1057. SevereHurricane 6:18 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Well the water is drained, however everybody who flooded or nearly flooded in my neighborhood is furious with the Parish President.
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1058. SevereHurricane 6:22 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
I found this on foxnews.com

Here is a passage on the Yellowstone supervolcano from "A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson. He interviews a Yellowstone geologist, Paul Doss. I don't find it reassuring:

I asked him what caused Yellowstone to blow when it did.

"Don't know. Nobody knows. Volcanoes are strange things. We really don't understand them at all. Vesuvius, in Italy, was active for three hundred years until an eruption in 1944 and then it just stopped. It's been silent ever since. Some volcanologists think that it is recharging in a big way, which is a little worrying because two million people live on or around it. But nobody knows."

"And how much warning would you get if Yellowstone was going to go?"
He shrugged. "Nobody was around the last time it blew, so nobody knows what the warning signs are. Probably you would have swarms of earthquakes and some surface uplift and possibly some changes in the patterns of behavior of the geysers and steam vents, but nobody really knows."

"So it could just blow without warning?"

He nodded thoughtfully. The trouble, he explained, is that nearly all the things that would constitute warning signs already exist in some measure at Yellowstone. "Earthquakes are generally a precursor of volcanic eruptions, but the park already has lots of earthquakes-1,260 of them last year. Most of them are too small to be felt, but they are earthquakes nonetheless."


A change in the pattern of geyser eruptions might also be taken as a clue, he said, but these too vary unpredictably. Once the most famous geyser in the park was Excelsior Geyser. It used to erupt regularly and spectacularly to heights of three hundred feet, but in 1888 it just stopped. Then in 1985 it erupted again, though only to a height of eighty feet. Steamboat Geyser is the biggest geyser in the world when it blows, shooting water four hundred feet into the air, but the intervals between its eruptions have ranged from as little as four days to almost fifty years. "If it blew today and again next week, that wouldn't tell us anything at all about what it might do the following week or the week after or twenty years from now," Doss says. "The whole park is so volatile that it's essentially impossible to draw conclusions from almost anything that happens."

Evacuating Yellowstone would never be easy. The park gets some three million visitors a year, mostly in the three peak months of summer. The park's roads are comparatively few and they are kept intentionally narrow, partly to slow traffic, partly to preserve an air of picturesqueness, and partly because of topographical constraints. At the height of summer, it can easily take half a day to cross the park and hours to get anywhere within it. "Whenever people see animals, they just stop, wherever they are," Doss says. "We get bear jams. We get bison jams. We get wolf jams."

In the autumn of 2000, representatives from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service, along with some academics, met and formed something called the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory. Four such bodies were in existence already-in Hawaii, California, Alaska, and Washington-but oddly none in the largest volcanic zone in the world. The YVO is not actually a thing, but more an idea-an agreement to coordinate efforts at studying and analyzing the park's diverse geology. One of their first tasks, Doss told me, was to draw up an "earthquake and volcano hazards plan"-a plan of action in the event of a crisis.

"There isn't one already?" I said.

"No. Afraid not. But there will be soon."

"Isn't that just a little tardy?"

He smiled. "Well, let's just say that it's not any too soon."

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1059. KEHCharleston 6:38 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
RE:1058. SevereHurricane
Interesting
Glad you made it through the night with minimal damage. Did the potting plant dirt in bags work at all - or was it too clumpy??
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1060. SevereHurricane 6:44 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:1058. SevereHurricane
Interesting
Glad you made it through the night with minimal damage. Did the potting plant dirt in bags work at all - or was it too clumpy??


At first there was a little getting through but we cloged it with towels.But we had put everything important on the second story. One of my neighbors had as much as 3 inches in their house.
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1061. presslord 6:54 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
"A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson

one of the best books ever, anywhere, by anybody...
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1062. zoomiami 6:55 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
I have a little sticky next to my computer - to remember the sand bags for next hurricane season. Ones from 07 got dumped in the garden - and forgot them until Fay. Shows they could be useful now.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065
1063. presslord 7:02 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
my, my....Doesn't this sound like a fun time?!

Last great greenhouse climate change to be studied
January 4, 2009, 12:42 pm NZPA

World authorities on the history of climate change are converging on Wellington for a conference on the greenhouse climate of the Paleogene period, 65 to 35 million years ago.

The Paleogene was the last time that the Earth experienced greenhouse climate conditions and associated global warming on a scale comparable to projected future global warming.

The conference will include a one day "Greenhouse Earth Symposium" on January 14 in which leading international research scientists will showcase the role that research into the ancient greenhouse world of the Paleogene plays in advancing understanding of modern climate change.

Presentations will be targeted toward a non-specialist audience with an interest in the science behind climate change and, specifically, greenhouse gas-induced global warming.

A common theme to several presentations is the discovery that during times of extreme global warming sea temperatures in polar and temperate regions, such as New Zealand , soared to levels far higher than is predicted by climate models.

The conference, "Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene", has drawn together 130 scientists and students from over 20 countries, and runs from January 12 to January 15.
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1064. presslord 7:05 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Wonder if YouKnowWho is gonna flame me for posting about yet another "...minor European politician..."?!?!?!

Khaleej Times Online >> News >> NATION Blair to Report on Climate Change Deals at Abu Dhabi SummitT. Ramavarman

4 January 2009
ABU DHABI - Former British prime minister Tony Blair will report on the state of the deals on climate change at the World Future Energy Summit 2009 to be held here from January 19 to 21 at Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Centre (ADNEC).

Tony Blair will be delivering the closing speech at the Summit which brings together over 100 experts, 300 exhibiting companies and 12 national country pavilions from around the world, the organisers told Khaleej Times here.

The former British prime minister is now leading the %u2018Breaking the Climate Deadlock Initiative%u2019, through which he is working with world leaders to develop an international climate policy framework.

Backed by the Climate Group, a non-profit international business body dedicated to a global deal on climate change, Blair is leading a team of international experts to work on various international projects to tackle the intractable problem of securing a global deal on climate change.
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1065. SevereHurricane 7:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Wonder if YouKnowWho is gonna flame me for posting about yet another "...minor European politicain..."?!?!?!

ROFL!!!!!
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1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:22 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
greetings from the center of the universe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659
1067. ILwatcher 7:44 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Glad to see you weathered your storm last night, severe.
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1068. Cotillion 7:44 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting GBlet:
HELLO, HELLO, HELLO, is there anybody in there?


"Just not if you can hear me...
is there anyone home?
Come on, come on now....
I hear you're feeling down...
I can ease your pain, get you on your feet again..
Relax, I need some information first..
Just the basic facts, can you show me where it hurts?..."

Link

13-3 to us at HT, Vort ;)
Next TD wins it, methinks.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1069. SevereHurricane 7:50 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Thanks to the horrible leadership we have here in Jefferson parish we flooded.
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1070. KEHCharleston 7:52 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
1068. Cotillion

Looking good!
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1071. Cotillion 7:57 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1072. KEHCharleston 8:00 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
RE:1064. presslord

Must be a whole lotta money in GW market
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1073. SevereHurricane 8:01 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting Cotillion:
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.


haha go ravens
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1074. KEHCharleston 8:04 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting Cotillion:
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1075. Cotillion 8:13 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game


Yes, as our offence has been no great shakes today. 5-1 turnovers, and Mia still have a shot. Paints the picture, really.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1076. weatherbro 8:14 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Next week(mid-January) the synoptic scale will shift. Which means much below average temps over the east(deep mean trough) while a mean ridge finally anchors itself firmly over the west.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155
1077. AstroHurricane001 8:23 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Wow, over 1000 comments in the off-season?!? The freezing rain has started!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
1078. AstroHurricane001 8:27 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting GBlet:
Seems strange that we have not had our usual storm yet. Usually happens right after the holidays. I could really use a snow day or 2.

Hmm? Where I live at least, the holidays end when school usually begins on Monday, so tehcnicly the holidays aren't over. Or is it different in the US?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
1079. AstroHurricane001 8:29 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
By the way, the International Year of Astronomy kicks off this January. Depending on where you are it might begin on different dates.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
1080. IKE 8:36 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
1081. SevereHurricane 8:44 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.


Now lets see my Eagles beat the Vikings.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1082. Cotillion 8:48 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    


Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.


Now it is. Got a little hairy with Pennington marching down the field. That was a huge TD.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1083. IKE 8:49 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
1084. KEHCharleston 8:52 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.

Praises Be!!!
Works for Me

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1085. Cotillion 8:54 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting IKE:
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....


Well, I don't know. We probably would've moved the ball better on NE, and Pennington was great until today. Cassel might've been the same.. last year our 5-11 Ravens nearly beat the Pats (And they had Brady, and our entire secondary was gone.)

Just hope we come out of this relatively unscathed. It's amazing what we've done... 12-5 with a rookie HC, a rookie QB AND no bye since Week 2.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1086. SevereHurricane 8:56 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting IKE:
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....


defidently,I was all patriots last year to the end, I was mad about what happened this year, they got the carrot.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1087. IKE 9:05 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Miami had an easier schedule based on their lousy record in 2007. The Ravens may have beaten NE, but it wouldn't have been as one-sided.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
1088. Orcasystems 9:21 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting weatherbro:
Next week(mid-January) the synoptic scale will shift. Which means much below average temps over the east(deep mean trough) while a mean ridge finally anchors itself firmly over the west.


I would be happy to see snow from Macon all the way to the FL panhandle.. they deserve it.. I mean.. they need it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
1089. zoomiami 9:26 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Orca - are you weather hating again? tsk, tsk

I for one would be glad to have a little cooler weather - its make for a nice change of pace.

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065
1090. Cotillion 9:31 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting IKE:
Miami had an easier schedule based on their lousy record in 2007. The Ravens may have beaten NE, but it wouldn't have been as one-sided.


Yeah, it would be closer.

Titans, next - be a lot more even. Provided we don't have any players out, I think we'll sneak it. Chargers-Steelers will be interesting.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1091. Orcasystems 9:33 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - are you weather hating again? tsk, tsk

I for one would be glad to have a little cooler weather - its make for a nice change of pace.



I want to be able to see my Koi again.. last time I saw them was before we went to Mexico... I know they have to be in that iceberg somewhere.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
1092. fireflymom 9:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Ok what will that deep ridge translate to in Houston area?
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1093. Drakoen 9:54 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through portions of central and northern Louisiana. Surface moisture flux convergence and high mixing ratio within the theta-e ridge over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi values 336K within the warm sector of a surface warm front moving up the mid-Atlantic states. Positive surface frontogenesis marked by an increasing thermal gradient. Generally conditional adiabatic lapse rates 6.5C/km and steep low level lapse rates near 7C/km...Lifted index values near -4 and CAPE between 1,000-1,500jkg. Currently a great chance of hail in the in the cell north of Monroe in extreme northern Louisiana and the cell to the northwest of Baton Rouge.
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1094. beell 10:02 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Now if we just had some shear and moisture.
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1095. HadesGodWyvern 10:12 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Fiji Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
06:00 AM FST January 5 2008
============================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (Not Numbered) [1002HPA] NEAR 16S 161E SLOW MOVING.

POSITION POOR.

2100 UTC Tropical Disturbance Summary, if any, will be issued later today on this disturbance (if system gets a tropical cyclone number)

---
this disturbance is west of Vanuatu and northwest of New Caledonia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691
1096. HadesGodWyvern 10:13 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "AURING" conitnues to accelerate as it move northward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Auring located at 12.8°N 126.7ºE or 210 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
------------
1. Eastern Samar

---
Philippines is sort of lucky that 99W (Auring) changed course.


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691
1097. Drakoen 10:14 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
Quoting beell:
Now if we just had some shear and moisture.


You're right. Moderate to High BRN shear values though we do have some directional shear between the low levels and upper levels. Lack of any significant speed shear. We do have some inflow base within the surface frontogenesis region.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
1098. beell 10:22 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
MLCape would probably be a better indicator of updraft potential in the cool season. Closer to 500 j/kg. Mix the lowest 100mb up well and add to updraft. It will usually be lower than SBCape.
If you look at all the parameters I would say it would be near impossible to get anything substantial or close to any persistence, but there is a tor warning up in SW MS so what do I know lol?


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12893
1099. HadesGodWyvern 10:27 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
India Meteorological Department
Earthquake Report

1/4/2009 20:22:54 UTC (1:52 am IST, Jan 5)
Lat: 6.4N
Long: 94.3E
Depth: 15
Magnitude: 5.4
Region: NICOBAR ISLANDS





Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691
1100. Patrap 10:28 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

Link


TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 403 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 359 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 356 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 334 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 325 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 324 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 322 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 246 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
1101. Drakoen 10:37 PM GMT on January 04, 2009    
There's also a lack of a low level jet. Not really pulling that GOM moisture. Southeast will get a better chance for rain on Tuesday. GFS shows a 64knt low level jet developing and a 150knt upper level jet with directional shear. The thermodynamics should be there for deep moisture to spread across the southeast especially around the Tennessee River Valley. Amount could be near 6inches according to the HPC: Link
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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