Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Weather and mortality

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2009

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes get the attention-grabbing headlines when a natural disaster kills people in the U.S. Yet heat waves, cold winter weather, severe thunderstorm winds, and flooding all killed more people in the U.S. between 1970 and 2004, according to a December 2008 article published by Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina. Tornadoes and lightning were tied for fifth place, and Hurricanes and earthquakes tied for eighth place. However, had this study extended one more year into 2005, the roughly 1800 hurricane deaths from Hurricane Katrina would have vaulted hurricane deaths into third place, behind heat wave deaths and cold weather deaths. The study also showed that people living in rural areas were most likely to die from a natural disaster than those living in cities.

Figure 1. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards between 1970 and 2004 showed that weather associated with extremes of hot and cold weather, along with severe thunderstorm winds (the "Severe Weather" category), killed the most people. Image credit: Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States, International Journal of Health Geographics. Authors: Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina.

The authors used Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States (SHELDUS)(available at http://www.sheldus.org). This database provides hazard loss information (economic losses and casualties) from 1960-2005 for eighteen different hazard types, and is primarily based on data from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center publication, "Storm Data". The numbers have high uncertainty, and the authors conclude, "There is considerable debate about which natural hazard is the most "deadly". According to our results, the answer is heat. But this finding could be changed depending on the data source, or how hazards within a data source are grouped."

Figure 2. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards for the 10- and 30-year period ending in 2007, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Image credit: NOAA.

To illustrate, a 2008 study by Thacker et al. called, "Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979-2004", concluded that cold deaths were twice as common as heat deaths in the U.S. However, they noted that the 1995 Chicago heat wave, which killed between 600 and 700 people by some estimates, was not properly represented in the data base used in their study. This data base attributed only 50 deaths in the entire state of Illinois to heat in 1995. The authors conclude that their data base "under-reports the actual number of deaths due to severe heat".

Another example: NOAA plots up annual natural hazard deaths from the same source ("Storm Data") as the first study I montioned. Their statistics for the ten-year period ending in 2007 show a much different picture (Figure 2). Heat deaths are a much more dominant source of mortality than cold and winter storm deaths, by a factor 3.5. The take-home message from all this is that heat- and cold-related extreme weather are probably the deadliest weather hazards in the U.S., but we really don't know the proportion of people killed by each. One can easily cherry pick the study of one's choice to show a desired result.

How global warming might affect heat and cold-related deaths
If the globe continues to warm up this century, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), heat-related deaths will increase and cold-related deaths will decrease (duh!). Unfortunately, that's about the most intelligent thing one can say about the matter. The 2007 IPCC report (section 8.4.1.3, Heat- and cold-related mortality), does not attempt to estimate the numbers, saying, "Additional research is needed to understand how the balance of heat-related and cold-related mortality could change under different socio-economic scenarios and climate projections."

This high uncertainty in future heat- and cold-related deaths does not stop advocates on either side of the global warming issue from cherry picking results from selected studies to support a particular point of view. For example, opinion columnist George Will stated in a recent Newsweek column: "In Europe, cold kills more than seven times as many as heat does. Worldwide, moderate warming will, on balance, save more lives than it will cost--by a 9-to-1 ratio in China and India. So, if substantially cutting carbon dioxide reverses warming, that will mean a large net loss of life globally." Will bases his arguments on Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg's controversial 2007 book, "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming." However, as pointed out by Danish biologist Kåre Fog, who has assembled a large web site dedicated to pointing out the errors in Lomborg's books, the huge number of excess deaths attributed to cold by Will and Lomborg are in large part because the death rate naturally rises in the winter: "Old and seriously sick people have less vitality in the dark season. It is too bold to say that the excess deaths during the dark part of the year are `deaths due to excess cold?. There is no evidence that a warmer climate will alter the seasonal variation. These people would soon die in any case, even if winters became warmer. Indeed, cold and warm climates, like Finland and Greece, have approximately the same seasonal variation in mortality." The IPCC underscores this problem, stating: "projections of cold-related deaths, and the potential for decreasing their numbers due to warmer winters, can be overestimated unless they take into account the effects of influenza and season".

Heat wave deaths are subject to a degree of uncertainty as well. It is somewhat of a subjective call if an elderly person who dies during a heat wave died primarily as a result of the heat, or of a pre-existing heart or respiratory condition. Complicating the diagnosis is the fact that air pollution is at its worst during heat waves, and can also be blamed as the cause of death in some cases. Different studies will use different criteria for classify deaths due to heat, pollution, or pre-existing medical conditions during a heat wave, leading to widely varying estimates of mortality. For example, the European heat wave of 2003 is blamed for 35,000, 52,000, or 70,000 deaths, depending upon the source. You're more likely to hear the higher 70,000 figure quoted by advocates of doing something about global warming, and the 35,000 figure quoted by those opposed.

The three 2008 studies for the U.S. show the ratio of cold deaths to heat deaths ranges from 2:1 to 1:3, which is very different from the 7:1 and 9:1 figures quoted by Will and Lomborg for Europe, India, and China. I don't trust any of these numbers, since heat and cold mortality statistics are highly uncertain and easy to cherry pick to show a desired result. It is rather unproductive to argue about how many people die due to heat and cold in the current climate or in a future climate. Excess heat deaths due to climate change should not get as much attention as the potential for death due to reduction in crop yields due to increased heat and drought, regional collapses of the oceanic food chain from the steady acidification of the oceans, and the wars these conditions might trigger.

For more information
For those interested, Kåre Fog also presents a list of the errors in Al Gore's book and movie, An Inconvenient Truth, and has a Comparison of error counts between Al Gore and Bjørn Lomborg. Lomborg has assembled a Short reply to Skeptical Questions to respond to some of Fog's criticisms, but does not answer Fog's criticism on cold deaths vs. heat deaths. Suffice to say, one should be wary of trusting climate change information from either source, or from opinion columnists, or from politicians. Blogs can also be a questionable source of climate change information, though I think wunderground Climate Change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood is one of the most knowledgeable and unbiased climate change experts in the world. Though imperfect, the best source of climate change information is the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The level of scientific collaboration and peer review that went into that document is one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of science, and the IPCC was fully deserving of the Nobel Prize awarded to it last year. Blogs and books like Lomborg's and Gore's have not gone through peer-review by scientific experts on climate change, and will have far more errors, biases, and distortions of the truth than the IPCC reports.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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451. IKE 1:43 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Ever closer. And the seasons doesn't look promising, similar to 2008 in my opinion. Maybe an eastern GOM and east coast season. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

452. conchygirl 1:45 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Morning: Hard to believe a brisk 37 here this morning. Should warm up nicely and I keep saying our last cold front but we shall see! Hardly any rain at all! Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

453. IKE 1:49 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting conchygirl: Morning: Hard to believe a brisk 37 here this morning. Should warm up nicely and I keep saying our last cold front but we shall see! Hardly any rain at all! conchygirl...looks like mild weather for the eastern USA returns by midweek. Maybe another cool down starts in about 10 days....end of next week. Til then it's dry and a warming trend in the SE USA. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

454. biff4ugo 1:50 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Yea, Winter's Last Hurrah in Florida... I hope. Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1177

455. IKE 1:53 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Here's some good news with the economy...consumer spending rises in January Maybe that will help the market. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

457. Tazmanian 2:27 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting kladdsimon: Does the owner of this blog mind if i posted something about my website, stormgeeks.com kladdsimon are you looking forword too be kick off dr m blog for spaming your site you have been hit with ! so many time that you no oh would have done some in about by now and not too be rude but you dont need to keep posting it this is the main blog if you want too post your site put it in your own blog not here spaming it on the main blog you can get ban for doing that and you dont want too that do you??? so kepp your site on you own blog Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

458. stillwaiting 2:50 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting P451: In Central NJ I've measured many areas of 11 inches (lowest was 10) and numerous areas of 15 inches (highest was 16) and everything inbetween. So I'd conclude 13 inches have fallen. With the ULL cranking up I wouldn't be surprised to finish around 15-17 inches in total. Very nice storm. It's great out there. ALOT of those measurments are drifts,in NYC I bet they end up with 6-10 inches,with up to 16" North and east of the city,which is different than the usual North and west of the city for the "heavy" STUFF Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

459. stillwaiting 2:51 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
eastern LI has 12" already!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

460. presslord 2:57 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Post 445....Who's that ugly guy in the picture?!?!?! Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

461. Orcasystems 3:38 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting presslord: Post 445....Who's that ugly guy in the picture?!?!?! It looks like the Southern Abdominal SnowSnake. It sure doesn't look happy.. what ever it is. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

462. Orcasystems 3:40 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Complete Blog Refresh Mirror Site Current Home weather station data. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

463. Orcasystems 3:49 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
First it snows on RTLSNK.. then it melts. Statement as of 11:20 PM EST on March 01, 2009 ... Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon... the Flood Warning continues for the Ocmulgee River near Macon * until Wednesday afternoon * at 11 PM Sunday the stage was 21.1 feet... and slowly rising * minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast to continue * flood stage is 18.0 feet * the river will continue rising to near 21.3 feet by Monday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday morning. * At 21.0 feet... minor flooding continues. Much of the Macon Greenway Ocmulgee heritage trail will flood north of the fifth street bridge. Agricultural flooding increase north and south of Macon. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

464. Ossqss 3:58 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Complete Blog Refresh Mirror Site Current Home weather station data. Looking to get a new weather station, any suggestions Mr. Orca? What are you using? Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

465. Orcasystems 4:07 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Ossqss: Looking to get a new weather station, any suggestions Mr. Orca? What are you using? Link Oregon Scientific WMR968 Complete Wireless Weather Station With Touch Screen Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

466. surfmom 4:07 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Talk about Global Warming! We are about to see and go through a Global Meltdown by our standards of living. Bet, gardens will become a real thing again. they already are! Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

468. Patrap 4:11 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
HURRICANES AND RELATED DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1990-2007 Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

469. Ossqss 4:12 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Link Oregon Scientific WMR968 Complete Wireless Weather Station With Touch Screen Thanks, same brand as my 12 year old unit that is dying a slow death. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

470. Patrap 4:12 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Winter Weather Preparedness Link A major winter storm can be lethal. Preparing for cold weather conditions and responding to them effectively can reduce the dangers caused by winter storms. Blizzards are severe winter storms that pack a combination of blowing snow and wind resulting in very low visibilities. While heavy snowfalls and severe cold often accompany blizzards, they are not required. Sometimes strong winds pick up snow that has already fallen, creating a blizzard. From 1986 to 2004, the over a thousand deaths have been attributed to winter weather in the United States. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

471. Patrap 4:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

472. Ossqss 4:16 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Patrap: Winter Weather Preparedness Link A major winter storm can be lethal. Preparing for cold weather conditions and responding to them effectively can reduce the dangers caused by winter storms. Blizzards are severe winter storms that pack a combination of blowing snow and wind resulting in very low visibilities. While heavy snowfalls and severe cold often accompany blizzards, they are not required. Sometimes strong winds pick up snow that has already fallen, creating a blizzard. From 1986 to 2004, the over a thousand deaths have been attributed to winter weather in the United States. Do the stats include traffic fatalities? Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

473. Patrap 4:17 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Do the stats include traffic fatalities? I added that below Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

474. Ossqss 4:17 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Ossqss: Do the stats include traffic fatalities? your quicker than my questions. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

475. Patrap 4:19 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
LOL...naw,it was on the same page. Excellent question though,thanx Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

476. stillwaiting 4:33 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
p451:Its hard to get accurate snowfall w/such windy conditions,I'm sure you know what your talking about,I can remember these type of storms growing up in SECT,should be a good solid blanket of 10" accross the 95 corridor!!!..enjoy the snow P451!!!!!,with any luck maybe I'll get a little something when I'm up in NYC next week!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

477. Ossqss 4:38 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
So much for my weather station. TampaSpin was right. My 01k is diving. Index Value: 6,848.84 Trade Time: 11:36am ET Change: 214.09 (3.03%) Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

478. Ossqss 4:39 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Its no longer TARP, its TAPS Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

479. Ossqss 4:43 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Parts of Virginia Nice ! Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

480. stillwaiting 4:45 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
ossqss:on the website that orca has linked,there is a bios weather station that looks like the type you'd be looking for,its retail is $99.99 + shipping,hope that helps!!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

481. Ossqss 4:52 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting: ossqss:on the website that orca has linked,there is a bios weather station that looks like the type you'd be looking for,its retail is $99.99 + shipping,hope that helps!!!! Thanks, I found some at SAMS for right at $100+ bucks with the goodies and USB connectivity. I like the oregon Scientific version. Gotta check the reviews and see how they have done for others. Then one last sweep through Ebay. FYI also, if you need any high end cables, do the Ebay way. Ebay -- monster HDMI cable $17 bucks to my door vs Best Buy $150 + tax. Same cable. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

482. hahaguy 4:55 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting IKE: Maybe an eastern GOM and east coast season. you better be wrong lol Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

483. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:03 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Link Oregon Scientific WMR968 Complete Wireless Weather Station With Touch Screen Link heres one that iam getting looks durable and good features Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

484. Ossqss 5:06 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Link heres one that iam getting looks durable and good features Wow, nice. Looks like an auto dump on the rain guage also. That battery life is impressive. You would think they would be somewhat solar or wind powered. That might be too logical. Thansk Ed Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

485. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:11 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
i have a tower already install on the roof of the 15 story building and iam going to mount it on the tower should have it up and running by 20th of march first day of spring Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

486. stillwaiting 5:13 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Ossqss: Thanks, I found some at SAMS for right at $100+ bucks with the goodies and USB connectivity. I like the oregon Scientific version. Gotta check the reviews and see how they have done for others. Then one last sweep through Ebay. FYI also, if you need any high end cables, do the Ebay way. Ebay -- monster HDMI cable $17 bucks to my door vs Best Buy $150 + tax. Same cable. I'm actually looking to buy a dell mini 9 laptop on ebay,as we speak!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

487. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:15 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
it will be a total of 250 in can funds no free shipping to canada comes ups for about 40 bucks shipping so 250 is not bad i have been looking around and that one by far looks the most durable of any Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

488. Ossqss 5:17 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting: I'm actually looking to buy a dell mini 9 laptop on ebay,as we speak!!! Ask about the battery on that unit. Ensure they will back it up. Those batteries can get expensive to replace. They will rebuild some at Batteries Plus if needed or you can do it your self if you have the right soldering equipment. I made several NIMH batteries for the kids RC stuff. What a difference. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

489. Patrap 5:17 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
NOLA Portlight Relief Walk Sat,March 21 Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

490. Ossqss 5:21 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
They found the lost boat in the GOM with one person clinging to it, breaking news item. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

491. stillwaiting 5:21 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: it will be a total of 250 in can funds no free shipping to canada comes ups for about 40 bucks shipping so 250 is not bad i have been looking around and that one by far looks the most durable of any WOW!!!,pretty cool for that price,I'll be getting one before TC season starts,probably in a month or so...surfmom could get live beach conditions,might even hook up A webcam!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

492. hahaguy 5:23 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting Ossqss: They found the lost boat in the GOM with one person clinging to it, breaking news item. dam Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

493. stillwaiting 5:25 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
thanks for the laptop advise,I'm checking our local Tampa area noon news and there making no mention of the boaters,where did you here it??? Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

494. stillwaiting 5:26 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
ok,channel 10 has it Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

495. Ossqss 5:27 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Boat item link Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

496. stillwaiting 5:27 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
my local channel 7 has confirmed that same info Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:30 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting: WOW!!!,pretty cool for that price,I'll be getting one before TC season starts,probably in a month or so...surfmom could get live beach conditions,might even hook up A webcam!!! maybe a webcam later for me i got to get a laptop with wireless connection so i can link it to my apartment computer from the roof to the first floor to set one up its a lot of cash just to have a cam up there but i have a friend that has a old laptop i need only for the cam software and link to view Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

498. Ossqss 5:37 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: maybe a webcam later for me i got to get a laptop with wireless connection so i can link it to my apartment computer from the roof to the first floor to set one up its a lot of cash just to have a cam up there but i have a friend that has a old laptop i need only for the cam software and link to view Web cams are cheap if you dont need any fancy features. Just got two -- Free Talk / Skype cert and they work great. 2 for $28 bucks at Wallyworld. Shipped one to the relateds up north and it works find with minimal digital lag. The service is free through Skype for streaming video. Just a heads up, you can pay well over a $100 for one, but what ever you do, get one with a built in microphone. The head set thing limits usage to one person at a time, the combo unit, gets everyone in the picture with audio. good luck. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

499. jerseygrl 5:41 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
My DS measured 8" here in Freehold, NJ, but it was still snowing. I'd say about 9-10" total. Not sure what the "official" amount is. All I know is, it's TOO DAMNED MUCH!!! Dreaming of spring... Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

500. stillwaiting 5:41 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
1 person alive found clinging to a overturned boat 30 miles west of johns pass,st pete florida,confirmed by the coastguard Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

501. presslord 5:45 PM GMT on March 02, 2009
post 500.....WOW!!!!!! I would have bet against them finding anyoine alive.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

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