Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Space Weather storms

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:40 PM GMT on March 31, 2009

Twenty years ago this month, on March 13, 1989, I was aboard NOAA's P-3 weather research aircraft, bumping through a turbulent portion of a fierce winter storm in a remote ocean area between Greenland and Norway. We were searching for clues on how to make better weather forecasts for the regions of Norway and the northern British Isles battered by these great storms. Our 2-month project, based in Bødø, Norway, was called the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Research Experiment (CEAREX) . Today's flight took us through the heart of an extratropical storm developing at the edge of the sea ice that covered the ocean waters east of Greenland.

As I looked over at the white-capped, forbidding waters of the Greenland Sea, I reflected today's flight was not particularly dangerous by Hurricane Hunter standards, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds made the ride a bit rough at times. However, we were a long way from civilization. Should an emergency require us to ditch the aircraft in the ocean or the nearby remote island of Jan Mayen, we'd be tough to find unless we were able to radio back our position before going down. Far from any land areas, our communication life-line to the outside world was HF radio (ham radio), which relied on Earth's ionosphere to bounce signals off of. Three hours into the flight this life-line abruptly stopped working.

Figure 1. Sea ice swirls in ocean eddies off the coast of Labrador, Canada, in this photo I took during a 1989 CEAREX flight.

"Jeff, can you come up to the cockpit?" Aircraft Commander Dan Eilers' voice crackled over the intercom. I took a break from monitoring our weather instruments, took off my headset, and stepped forward into the cockpit of the P-3.

"What's up, Dan?" I asked.

"Well, HF radio reception crapped out about twenty minutes ago, and I want to climb to 25,000 feet and see if we can raise Reykjavik Air Traffic Control to report our position. We're flying at low altitude in hazardous conditions over 500 miles from the nearest airport, and it's not good that we're out of communication with the outside world. If we were to go down, search and rescue would have no idea where to look for us."

I agreed to work out an alteration to the flight plan with our scientists, so that we could continue to collect good data on the storm while we climbed higher. The scientists weren't too happy with the plan, since they were paying $20,000 for this flight, and wanted to stay low at 1,500 feet to better investigate the storm's structure. Regardless, we climbed as high as we could and orbited the storm, issuing repeated calls to the outside world over our HF radio. No one answered.

"I've never seen such a major interruption to HF radio!" Commander Eilers said, worriedly. "We can go back down to 1,500 feet and resume the mission, but I want to periodically climb to 25,000 feet and continue trying to establish communications. If we can't raise Air Traffic Control, we should consider aborting the mission".

I agreed to work with the scientists to accommodate this strategy. They argued hotly against a possible cancellation of this mission, which was collecting some unique data on a significant winter storm. So, for the next four hours, we periodically climbed to 25,000 feet, issuing futile calls over our HF radio. Finally, after an uncomfortable eight hours, it was time to go home to our base in Norway. As twilight sank into Arctic darkness, a spectacular auroral display--shimmering curtains of brilliant green light--lit up sky. It began to dawn on us that the loss of our HF radio reception was probably due to an unusual kind of severe weather--a "Space Weather" storm. An extremely intense geomagnetic storm was hitting the polar regions, triggering our brilliant auroral show and interrupting HF radio communications.

The geomagnetic "Superstorm" of March 13, 1989
As it turned out, the geomagnetic storm of March 13, 1989 was one of the most intense such "Space Weather" events in recorded history. The storm developed as a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun four days previously. The CME event blasted a portion of the Sun's plasma atmosphere into space. When the protons and electrons from the Sun arrived at the Earth, the planet's magnetic field guided the highly energetic particles into the upper atmosphere near the magnetic poles. As a result, the lower levels of the polar ionosphere become very ionized, with severe absorption of HF radio, resulting in my uncomfortable flight over the Greenland Sea with no communications. The geomagnetic storm didn't stop there--the storm's charged particles triggered a strong magnetic impulse that caused a voltage depression in five transmission lines in the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. Within 90 seconds, automatic voltage compensation equipment failed, resulting in a generation loss of 9,450 MW. With a load of about 21,350 MW, the system was unable to withstand the generation loss and collapsed. The entire province of Quebec--six million people--was blacked out for approximately nine hours. The geomagnetic storm also triggered the failure of a large step-up transformer at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey, as well as 200 other failures on the North American power system. Auroras were observed as far south as Florida, Texas, and Cuba during this geomagnetic "superstorm".

Figure 2. Red and green colors predominate in this view of the Aurora Australis (Southern Hemisphere aurora) photographed from the Space Shuttle in May 1991 at the peak of the geomagnetic maximum that also brought us the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm". The payload bay and tail of the Shuttle can be seen on the left hand side of the picture. Auroras are caused when high-energy electrons pour down from the Earth's magnetosphere and collide with atoms. Red aurora occurs from 200 km to as high as 500 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 6300 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. Green aurora occurs from about 100 km to 250 km altitude and is caused by the emission of 5577 Angstrom wavelength light from oxygen atoms. The light is emitted when the atoms return to their original unexcited state. Image credit: NASA.

Solar Maximum is approaching
The sun waxes and wanes in brightness in a well-documented 11-year cycle, when sun spots and their associated Coronal Mass Ejections occur. We just passed through solar minimum--the sun is quiet, with no sun spots. We are headed towards a solar maximum, forecast to occur in 2012. Geomagnetic storms are at their peak during solar maximum, and we'll have to be on the lookout for severe "Space Weather" starting in 2010. I'll talk more about severe "Space Weather" storms in my next post, when I'll discuss the greatest Space Weather storm in recorded history--the famed "Carrington Event" of 1859--and what damages it might wreak were it to happen today. An extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 2008 says that a repeat of the Carrington Event could result in the most costly natural disaster of all time.

Resources
MetaTech Corporation's animation of the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic "superstorm".
spaceweather.com
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

Jeff Masters

Categories: Atmospheric Phenomena

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151. stillwaiting 3:07 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting cchsweatherman: Throughout the day at the campus, I had been monitoring the weather situation across Florida. The main reason was due to the fact that all the forecast soundings from this morning indicated favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development. Was really surprised by the several tornado warnings that were issued across the state and into Georgia as I had not anticipated the atmosphere to destabilize as rapidly as it did. Based upon the early reports I received, it seemed to me that the tornadoes that did form produced minimal damage, which is good news. What we all saw today occuring this afternoon across Florida is the transition that is starting to take affect in weather patterns. With the seabreeze activity, it indicates to me that we are exiting the grasp of the dry, continental airmass that had dominated the state for the past several months, and entering into the push towards our rainy season. It will likely still take several more weeks to get into rainy season, but if the impressive seabreeze thunderstorm action this afternoon was any indication, it seems that the worst of this terrible drought across the state may be over and relief is on the horizon. The stationary front looked to be the main cause of the instabilty over most of the central and southern penninsula.IMO,not sea breeze storms,its a bit early still for those!!!maybe the middle of may.... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

153. RMM34667 3:17 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
I wish that stuff would slide down a little more into west central florida. With the new water restritions they just announced you can only turn on your sprinklers between midnight and 4 am. but our pump to pull the water out of the lake is about thirty years old and we can't leave it on unattended. Ya know it wouldn't be so bad if the HOAs would allow less lawn and more "florida friendly" planting. Dispite the current drougt our HOA is still sending out violation letters telling homeowners to resod. CRAZY.. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

154. Tejano72 3:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Baha: Agreed. 120. Ossgss: There is a terrific book, which puts atstrophysics, including very recent discoveries - of which there have been many (so anything more than about 2 years old is about as dated as a Commodore 64 - astrophysically speaking). The title is "Death from the Skies". Its a catchy title, but reading it, for about $20, is pretty much the equivalent of taking an undergraduate course in astrophysics on the topic of "bad things that could happen" and the science and references are excellent. Australia and Hawaii have cutting edge astrophysics labs, much like FSU has there Hurricane CSI lab [home of Zie Zuper Ensemble - which sounds suspiciously like something a Bond villain would want to steal and secretly run from his hollowed out volcano], simply because that's where there is a great view away from city lights. They've got some noteworthy blogs and graduate research.

155. TampaSpin 3:46 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
154. Tejano72 11:35 PM EDT on March 31, 2009 Long time no see......how you been Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

156. TampaSpin 3:49 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

157. Drakoen 3:51 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting: The stationary front looked to be the main cause of the instabilty over most of the central and southern penninsula.IMO,not sea breeze storms,its a bit early still for those!!!maybe the middle of may.... The thunderstorms today were the result of mesoscale convergence. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

158. TampaSpin 3:55 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
GRAPHIC 50 River Flooding Map Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

159. TampaSpin 3:58 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: The thunderstorms today were the result of mesoscale convergence. I thought it was because of very high clouds...LOL...just kidding... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

161. TampaSpin 4:26 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Well we did get 1.52" of rain by midnight. So the rain hole was filled! And more is falling, yay, and double yay! More rain coming it appears. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

162. HadesGodWyvern 10:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services Tropical Disturbance Summary TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-F 18:00 PM FST April 1 2009 ================================= At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPa) located at 17.0S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving north-northeast. Position POOR based on latest multispectral infrared with animation and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C. TD 14F is weak at this stage with the low level circulation center exposed, deep convection is detached to the east and drier air located to the south. 14F is embedded in a monsoonal trough while an active convergence zone lies to the north. A strong southeast surge is developing to the south. System lies under moderate amount of shear. Global models are keen to developing a series of lows along the monsoonal trough over the next few days (14F being one of these lows). These lows are likely to move fairly rapidly to the southeast in response to a good northwest steering flow. Strong to gale force winds are expected to develop south of these lows as a strong high pressure system near New Zealand extends a developing ridge of pressure into the tropics. At this stage, there is a low chance for any of these low to reach tropical cyclone status. POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

165. BahaHurican 11:02 AM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting Vortex95: 163. As lol S Fla is never in the mix. It must feel left out :P. Not really, I'm sure. More like relieved :o) Have a great day, all! We're starting out overcast here, so just about anything can happen. . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

167. weathermanwannabe 12:21 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Good Morning All....Yup....All folks along the Northern Gulf coastal areas/states need to stay tuned to local news/noaa radio over the next 24 hours.....The biggest problem (outside of the tornado/wind events) will be localized flooding along rivers/streams and flood watches/warnings are also up everywhere...However, the rain is always welcome for the crops and vegetation.... Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6692

169. TropicTraveler 12:34 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting MNTornado: I don't put an stock in the hypercane theories, but the super volcano is not a theory. It is a documented fact though they haven't had any eruptions in a long while. I know that there are folks keeping a close eye on Yellowstone now that they know that it is a super volcano (also a very recent discovery). Last night on "How the Earth was Made" covered the deep well of magma, or "hot spot" under yellowstone. Apparently it erupts about every 600,000 years. It's now 640,000 years since the last eruption. Earthquakes are increasing, doming is occuring, and a ship that sank under Yellowstone Lake many years ago has now risen so that the wreckage is sitting above water. So that magma reservoir is apparently building. All the more reason for us to enjoy today with all the gifts it brings to us. Who knows? Still, much better odds of getting hit by a truck than wiped out by an asteroid. By the way, Good morning everyone. As always, this blog rocks. Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 896

170. TropicTraveler 12:39 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
AussieStorm - Is that Surfmom I see on that wave? Fabulous pictures! Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 896

171. charlottefl 12:57 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting... Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

172. weathermanwannabe 1:08 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting charlottefl: Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting... It will certainly shift back down into it's "permanent" slot off the US East Coast by June/July in time for H-Season so we can try to figure out what impact this will have on the US and Caribbean....If we end up with Enso neautral conditions during the peak of H-Season, historical climatoly has suggested that the US East Coast, as opposed to the Gulf Coast, would be at a greater risk of a potential strike where the BH settles down for the Summer will play the typically huge role.. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6692

173. Ossqss 1:27 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Looks like the worm stayed underground. No big issues so far. Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

174. TampaSpin 2:03 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting charlottefl: Just wondered if anyone else has seen where the Bermuda High has been hovering the last month. Very interesting... Not really that unusual, in that location...Most would not consider this to be the Bermuda High. Don't confuse this with the Azores High which really is the Bermuda High Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

175. HurricaneSwirl 2:06 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
163. Few! We are just outside the red moderate box and just on the edge of the 45% box. Most of the last systems have gone to south of us, except the HUGE one on saturday that flushed us out with feet of water. So I'm not too worried. We need rain. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

176. stillwaiting 2:12 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
I have a feeling that the flooding situatuion is going to spreading from the FL panhandle area east targeting the big bend area today with flooding...... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

177. TampaSpin 2:20 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
The Low that develops and comes out of Texas really cranks up as it moves NE as it becomes a 984mb Low.... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

178. TampaSpin 2:23 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
A 2nd one to follow it appears.... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

179. surfmom 2:31 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
swfl gulf surfers - well it won't look like Aussiestorm's pics........... oh wait a minute.............. --YES IT WILL LOOK LIKE AUSSIE STORM'S PICTURES.......... April Fool's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We have the start of the next bump this morning ( no April's fool joke) surf in the shin/knee high range and building. Wind today to crank up from the South and continue to blow through Friday. We should have a ridable wave by late this afternoon and into tomorrow. Friday looks to be our best bet of swell. Kiter's heads up good wind the next few days. Gulf Temp 73 Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

180. surfmom 2:33 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Stillwaiting - waves up yet??? or still a washing machine???? I had a terrific surf session Monday -- still sore! Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

181. surfmom 2:35 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting TropicTraveler: AussieStorm - Is that Surfmom I see on that wave? Fabulous pictures! In my dreams...... although if I didn't land it right.... it would be a nightmare & final curtains LOL those waves are the kind I watch from the beach -- but that alone would be an incredible life experience.... I have to booty those pictures -- I keep going back and gazing at them for long stretches of time..... my wave pic (#137) is so puny -- it's kinda funny -- well I still LOVE my Lady of the Gulf! Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

182. surfmom 2:37 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Tampa - inquiring minds want to know -- any chance for better chances of rain?????????????? Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

183. TampaSpin 2:45 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting surfmom: Tampa - inquiring minds want to know -- any chance for better chances of rain?????????????? Not for us! That big High that i posted on 174 is blocking anything trying to come South. Until it moves South Florida will just get some hit and miss Thunder Storms because of the Tropical Flow and the Heating over Land for the Day. Hate to say it but if the Temperatures was hotter in Florida we would get the instability of rising Heat over land and some needed rain. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

184. TampaSpin 2:46 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Surfmom we will have a chance of some rain but, it dries up alot before getting here. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

185. Ossqss 3:02 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Hummmm, if the pattern persists, we should hear from Redoubt later today. Magnitude Location Time 5.2 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 34 minutes ago Map 5.5 Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia 8 hours ago Map 6.3 Near the north coast of New Guinea, Papua New Guinea 11 hours ago Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

186. nrtiwlnvragn 3:08 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Redoubt on monday Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8925

187. theshepherd 3:17 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting TropicTraveler: Last night on "How the Earth was Made" covered the deep well of magma, or "hot spot" under yellowstone. Apparently it erupts about every 600,000 years. It's now 640,000 years since the last eruption. Earthquakes are increasing, doming is occuring, and a ship that sank under Yellowstone Lake many years ago has now risen so that the wreckage is sitting above water. So that magma reservoir is apparently building. All the more reason for us to enjoy today with all the gifts it brings to us. Who knows? Still, much better odds of getting hit by a truck than wiped out by an asteroid. By the way, Good morning everyone. As always, this blog rocks. I saw that one also. I'm not a doomsayer nor a doomsayer slayer, but there are conflicting ideas about Yellowstone. 1. The submerged wreck was over two feet out of the water,yet the GPS on the ground area that had risen the most only showed a 6 or 8 inch rise. 2. Considering the three past eruptions at Yellowstone, each one was significantly smaller than the previous one. 3. The lava pool that created the last eruption has migrated well west beneath much more stable ground. 4. Old Faithfull isn't Old Faithfull anymore. Just food for thought.(And knock on wood) LOL Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8202

188. Seastep 3:22 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Check out the redoubt cam showing fire at the base right now. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

189. Seastep 3:23 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Link for a larger view: Link Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

190. theshepherd 3:26 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting Seastep: Check out the redoubt cam showing fire at the base right now. Err. Those are harbor lights. Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8202

191. surfmom 3:26 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Surfmom we will have a chance of some rain but, it dries up alot before getting here. that what I figured ... I was hoping if I keep asking the same question I'd get the answer I want to hear..... (like my kids) REDOUBT ---- ???? Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

192. surfmom 3:26 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting theshepherd: Err. Those are harbor lights. HARBOR LIGHT or fire ---???? Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

193. Seastep 3:28 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
you sure shep? If so... LMAO. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

194. Ossqss 3:37 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Fire at the base would indicate its time to run away. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

195. Ossqss 3:50 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
One of the items that goes unnoticed is the depth of an earthquake. Here are some examples of the differences from just today. Depth in KM is bold. MAP 6.3 2009/04/01 03:55:02 -3.650 143.939 10.0 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G MAP 4.7 2009/04/01 05:25:28 -22.567 -65.975 240.7 JUJUY, ARGENTINA MAP 2.9 2009/04/01 14:52:10 53.049 -168.072 53.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA MAP 2.5 2009/04/01 13:32:22 34.825 -116.406 4.9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

196. theshepherd 3:52 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Quoting Seastep: you sure shep? If so... LMAO. ;>) and LOL Though the seismograms do show a small constant harmonic tremor, no volcanic tremors or harmonics off the graph are present to support such a lava flow. A few deep tectonic tremors pop up occaisonally, but that has been the status quo for weeks. Plus I've seen those same lights for weeks since the alert started. Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8202

197. katlbeach 4:26 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Getting absolutely dumped on in North Florida today - yay rain - bring it on - chase away those spring/summer brush fires! Member Since: September 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

198. Ossqss 4:27 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
SIGHTINGS: If you live in North America, this is a good week to see a large spaceship pass by in the night sky. That would be the International Space Station: Zip code link for timing and position if you are lucky enough to be in the zone. Link Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

199. ftpiercecane 4:46 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Lets see what happens this afternoon over here. It was nice to get a little lightning show yesterday evening. Summer rains are almost here. I know we need it. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

200. tampabos 4:46 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
Northern Florida is experiencing heavy rains today. These rains are most needed in Central Florida. The Tampa Bay area is under heavy water restrictions.

201. MissNadia 4:47 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
193 and 196 Guys,, When I sailed by that area years ago while in the Coast Guard, there was a lot of oil drilling activity right there at the foot of Redoubt. My guess is that the lights are on oil platforms or something along those lines. Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674

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