La Niña conditions end; 10th warmest March on record for the globe
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and deep water temperatures have warmed significantly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the first two weeks of April, and La Niña conditions are no longer present. While NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not yet declared an end to this La Niña episode and dropped their La Niña advisory, it is very likely that the La Niña event that began in December 2008 is now over. The big question is whether an El Niño event will rapidly form in its place, in time for hurricane season. This did happen after the 1976 La Niña, which ended in April, with a weak El Niño beginning in September. However, it can take a few months for the atmosphere to adjust to the formation of a new El Niño, and there is no guarantee that a weak El Niño for the coming hurricane season would act to dramatically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Four out of 21 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season; three are predicting a La Niña, and fourteen are predicting neutral conditions.
Figure 1. The difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for the Niña 3.4 region of the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W). La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the Niña 3.4 region cools below -0.5°C. La Niña conditions began in December 2008 and ended in late March 2009. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Tenth warmest March on record for the globe
Global temperatures remained about where they've been the past two years, with the planet recording its 10th warmest March on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - March was the eighth warmest such period on record.
An average March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., March temperatures were the 51st warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month had near-average precipitation, ranking as the 42nd wettest March. Three states (Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey) experienced their driest year-to-date period ever. In neighboring states, Pennsylvania recorded its second driest year-to-date period and Massachusetts and West Virgnia experienced their fourth and fifth driest, respectively. The below-normal precipitation averages led to the driest ever start to the year for the Northeast region. Record amounts of snow fell in North Dakota during March. Fargo received 28.1 inches, which was nearly 2 more inches than the previous March record set in 1997. Fargo also recorded 4.62 inches of precipitation which set a new monthly record. Runoff from the record precipitation led to the highest flood levels ever observed on the Red River in North Dakota. The river crested in Fargo at a record level of 12.4 m (40.8 feet), shattering the previous record of 12.2 m (40.1 feet) set in 1897.
Through March, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity for the year, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. There were just 9 tornado deaths through March, compared to 70 deaths through March of 2008, and the 3-year average of 44 deaths.
On April 14, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 21% figure observed January through March.
Bahamas 2009 Weather Conference
This week, many of the world's hurricane experts are gathered at the Bahamas Hurricane Conference. Check out their web site for short videos by some of the presenters. The 3-minute talk by NHC Director Bill Read and former NHC Director Max Mayfield on the inadequacy of our familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale is interesting. They make the point that no one scale will ever be able to capture the threats a hurricane poses, since these depend greatly on exactly what track the storm takes, and our forecasts will never be able to precisely pinpoint the track. Thus, introducing a new scale to quantify storm surge risk is not a complete solution to the inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Coastal residents need to heed the detailed wind and storm surge forecasts for their area, regardless of what Category storm is approaching.
Jeff Masters
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http://www.jonesbahamas.com/news/45/ARTICLE/19610/2009-04-17.html
With the opening of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season less than two months away, weather officials from around the world are mapping new strategies and plans to ensure that there is greater accuracy in their predictions.
At the official opening of the 13th annual Bahamas weather conference on Thursday, hundreds of meteorologists gathered at the Sheraton Nassau Beach Resort to reflect on past hurricane seasons %u2013 especially those that had a devastating effect on The Bahamas like Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008 %u2013 and to see how best they could fine tune their prediction strategies.
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Some local news coverage of the conference.
EDIT
There is some MASSIVELY bad info about 'canes in this article. I just wrote the paper about it. .. . lol
Voluntary Versus Mandatory
Evacuations
Last Updated: January 29, 2008 ast Updated: January 29, 2008 Related resource areas: Family Caregiving
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Voluntary Versus Mandatory Evacuation
The Federal Emergency Management Agency defines evacuations as the organized, phased and supervised movement of people from dangerous or potentially dangerous areas. Some evacuations occur without the direction of government officials. This happens when residents either perceive of or are aware of an actual emergency and evacuate an area on their own. Voluntary and Mandatory/Directed Evacuations involve government direction.
That's a very good point. The thing i was trying to say was that forcing people out of their homes does saves lives but it virtually impossible to evacuate everybody.
very nice spring day
It dosent matter below the MAximin Surge heights.
If one is at 5 ft absl,or 16ft above sea level.
If the Surge is 24-30 ft,..you both lose.
Saw that myself as the North shore was under water.
The North Shore Of Lake Pontchartrain Flooded faster and Higher than NOLA easily. But it also flowed out with a day or 3.
Hurricane Katrina video from Slidell, LA as a 15 foot storm surge battered the area. TornadoVideos.net storm chasers were trapped on a second floor balcony in Slidell before catching a ride on a fishing boat, and hitch-hiking back to Oklahoma City.
Pt Arthur, Tx before during and after Rita
If you live in a flood-prone area, it's best to evacuate during the voluntary phase so you will have enough time to move. Flood waters can come upon you suddenly and trap you, making it difficult or impossible to leave at a later time.
If you feel you will need assistance in moving the individual you care for, it's best to plan early and move early. If you wait too late to evacuate, you may not be able to find friends or neighbors to help you.
If you choose not to evacuate during the voluntary phase, it is imperative that you monitor the emergency situation closely.
http://www.fema.gov/plan/prepare/evacuation.shtm.
It's not unconstitutional. It would be a misdemeanor for violation. In much the same way you can be arrested for violating a seat belt law. It is not common to be placed under arrest. Citation is most common. But state and local authorities are well within their power to arrest if they want to. That much has been upheld in the Supreme Court.
You could be arrested and carried away to safe shelter for violation of evac orders. It would not work everywhere. It would place an extreme burden on a very busy group of folks-the police.
It would have worked on Bolivar with the support of the National Guard.
Just so I'm straight, it is a violation of privacy to have a law against abortion (that is the reasoning behind Roe v. Wade), but it's not a violation to pull folks out of their homes? I give up.
And, disagree. Show me the case. I'd be interested to see that.
Amendment 4 - Search and Seizure. Ratified 12/15/1791.
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
Frankly, if u'r . . . unwise enough to insist on staying in a floodprone area when a hurricane is approaching, who am I to argue w/ a fool? OTOH, all kinds of other people have to deal with the consequences of your actions, sometimes including rescue personnel who have to listen to you beg them to come rescue you when they can't do anything but listen to u squeal, and recovery personnel who have the dubious pleasure of discovering your bloated dead body days after the storm is over. Talk about nightmare city.
Every heard the one "friends don't let friends drive drunk?" How is that different from physically removing someone from a barrier island about to get hit by a cat 3 storm with a cat 4/5 surge?
Tell that to the IRS. ;)
And standing-o applause for their service.
Atwater v. City of Lago Vista, TX
Seat belt laws are in place to protect us from ourselves.
The Court examined the historical evidence of practice in England during the Middle Ages and in the 17th and 18th centuries and in America from the time of the ratification of the Bill of Rights to modern times. Though the Court did find some evidence favoring Atwater's position, it determined that much of the historical precedent contradicted her argument. In the end, the Court's common law analysis supported the proposition that a police officer could arrest any person for a misdemeanor committed in his or her presence.
Just like those NFL players. Stupid to go out in a small boat like that in that weather. But it's a freedom we enjoy. Both the positive and negative.
I hear ya, but who decides? That is the problem.
And, think you open up all kinds of lawsuits if, say, the storm that was supposed to hit misses. Now you didn't have any reasonable cause.
Plus, it requires a warrant, even if reasonable.
If it misses they still did what they had to do to try to save lives.
They pled and pled... but didn't remove him.
I hear ya, but really all they can do is plead and sound the alarm.
Like "certain death."
I don't want to go there. Plus, then you have situations where some houses can handle it, some can't. Do you discriminate based on that?
Sorry, no way, no how I want govt to have authority to take me and my family out of my house. No matter what the circumstances. One circumstance turns into another, and another, and another.
It seems. . . wasteful.
I agree whole heartedly. What that video also shows is the complete choas and how unprepared everyone was. I don't know how Pt Arthur's powers that be faired after Ike. I do know that their levee held and they didnt go under like with Rita. But I do know that the parts of our area that did come through Rita relatively unscathed were destroyed by Ike. And not everybody evacuated from those areas. Memories are very short. I saw an interview with Bill Reid last night. when asked his biggest fear for the upcoming season he replied, "Denial."He gave Tampa Bay and New Jersey as examples of places that havent had one in a while and he was afraid theyd be unprepared for one to hit.
David Johnston's voice crackled over the radio link from Coldwater Observation Post, north of Mount St. Helens, on the clear Sunday morning of May 18, 1980. Seconds later, the government volcanologist was engulfed in the volcano's gigantic lateral blast. Other people died that day, but for me David's death hit the closest to home as he was a co-worker of mine at the U.S. Geological Survey offices in the San Francisco Bay area. He had many friends and a bright future, and when "Vancouver," the temporary USGS base in Vancouver, Washington, became a permanent institution, it took his name to honor him.
Johnston's death, I remember, was a shock to his colleagues. Not just because he had been so alive and so young . . . the mountain had seemed to be cooperating that spring.
Mount St. Helens on May 17, 1980, one day before the devastating eruption. The view is from Johnston's Ridge, six miles (10 kilometers) northwest of the volcano.
-- USGS Photo by Harry Glicken, May 17, 1980
I agree 100%. People should know the consequences of a Tropical Storm and a Cat 5 Hurricane. Gov't shouldnt have the right to force people to evacuate who don't want to.
I share many of your beliefs on this issue. My only point-it could be done. Within the powers of the Constitution. It comes down to this question: How much do we trust our science for each storm and unique topography?
Katrina and Ike qualify as storms where this could be considered based on the well known risks of weak levees and extreme surge.
Thanks for the rebuttals!
I'm with you in that it is such a shame. I had the worst pit in my stomach when I heard the estimates of those that stayed in Galveston and that idiot mayor making it out to be no big deal as it was closing in.
Just don't believe that govt should be protecting people from themselves. I disagree with seatbelt laws. Educate, educate, educate. That's all you can do. That's just my opinion on the matter.
Most folks don't wear seatbelts because of a law, it's because of all the education and being taught now from a very early age.
We never wore seatbelts when I was young. And it wasn't any law that made me start. Kids anymore, are generally not an issue because it is just instinct/habit now. They do it from the time they're born.
Again, just my opinion on the matter and I will leave the subject too.
It is depressing that there are so many that are complacent.
Link
There is this: Laura Recovery Center
31 missing. The shame is a large percentage of elderly folks on the list.
Gosh, we could have done better.
Some examples of bad choices hereLink
News KBMT
Bryan Rupp
Story Created: Apr 15, 2009 at 4:06 PM CDT
Story Updated: Apr 16, 2009 at 12:03 PM CDT
Former President George H.W. Bush and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal have been looking at the damage from the 2008 hurricane season. Touring by helicopter, the two surveyed the clean up and recovery efforts around Cameron.
Former Presidents Bush and Clinton are working together to raise funds to help the area hit hard by Hurricane Ike last year.
So far, the Bush-Clinton recovery fund has raised #2.7 million dollars to help rebuild the area.
AMEN !
"Actual, Meaningful, Explanation, Noted"
And you all thought it was going to be that other acronym that one poster does :)
L8R its Hockey night in Bradenton -- 0-0
Well said.
Nope, no warrant. If you violate an enforced evac order you can be arrested and charged with a misdemeanor. Fairly easy to determine guilt by the arresting officer. Long as they see you lol. IMO, they could not break down your door just to "check". So hunker down.
End result is you would be removed from harms way and the court would support such action if it came to that. Don't think we have much to worry about-it will never happen.
CRAP!!!
must go build fallout shelter!!! EEEK!
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