An early season Atlantic named storm looking less likely
The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update over the weekend if the models indicate a renewed tropical threat; otherwise, have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS
Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region
I see that the models are doing their thing again.
The GFS,CMC,UKMet and Nogaps all calling for a low to spin up near the Western tip of Cuba about 5 to 7 days out.
Today we finally got some meaningful rain in the Caymans, .62 of an inch at my home !!. The low being forecasted by the models would bring more welcome rain for us.
Good to see you too. Been lurking mostly for a while, especially with all the peripheral chit chat about the identities of bloggers that come and go LOL.
I have been looking at the TCHP values for the Caribbean and they are WAY below 08 and 07
Failing a quick recovery in SST and TCHP in the Caribbean I would expect little or no action until July this year.
Gossip sells..LOL
Hope the ol' Island has recovered well since Paloma.
We got Cindy here in JULY 05,but no one remembers Cindy from July 05,till the next morning when 260,000 awoke to to WTF happened...?
No one even could spell "Levee", then..
Hurricane Cindy 05 Local Landfall Radar Loop
I remember Cindy,
Can you imagine if Cindy would have been over water for a few more hours?
;)
Cayman Brac still has some rebuilding to do but Little Cayman is pretty much back to normal.
This season looks to be average to below average to me based upon data so far. Anomalously strong NE trades in the NW Caribbean has kept the SST from rising and this in turn means many more weeks before the temps migrate down to support stronger systems
Hi there
See post 318
13 May 2009
Project Director: Nan Walker
GOES night time composite imagery and animation sequences are viewable in three areas
* Gulf of Mexico
* Central Gulf of Mexico
* And, a large area encompassing the coastal region of Central America, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Atlantic
The thermal composites are built using the "warmest pixel" approach from a sequence of night time imagery (obtained every 30 minutes) spanning about 10 hours. The pixel size is ~ 4km in size. The GOES-8 and 12 SSTs were computed with GVAR channel 2. The SST algorithms have been developed in the ESL with RMS errors < 0.5 C. (see Walker et. al. 2003) The Sea Surface Height (SSH) data were provided by Dr. Bob Leben, University of Colarado. The project is funded by the Minerals Management Service.
Note : The most recent 8 days of GOES composite imagery is not published.
Model Cycle: 2009051518Z
Woah, that looks like an INTENSE line of powerful thunderstorms stretching from the Texas-Mexico border to central Michigan! Any possibility it will affect us here in the GTA in S. Ontario later tonight or tomorrow?!
Drat-phooey, all of us here in Florida wanted rain.
(grumbles and mumbles, kicks sodacan and wanders away)
Current Conditions
Big Trout Lake, CA (Airport)
Updated: 8 min 37 sec ago
Light Snow
27 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 18 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 25 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.16 in (Falling)
Visibility: 1.5 miles
Elevation: 735 ft
GFS 18Z
NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page
The GFS says that it will expand while spinning, and die out within 48 hours.
That is one possibility or outome.
Local Time: 11:37 PM GMT (GMT 00) Your time: 6:37 PM CDT (GMT -05) Lat/Lon: 89.0 S 90.1 (Google Map)
Current Conditions
Nico - 87 F 28.79 in Ice Crystals Mist
University Wi Id 8924 Nico, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 7 min 45 sec ago
Wind: 5 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in (Rising)
Elevation: 9629 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
Updated: 12:00 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Friday Night
Overcast. Low: -85 F . Wind light. Windchill: -95 F .
Saturday
Overcast. High: -75 F . Wind NW 11 mph . Windchill: -112 F .
Saturday Night
Overcast. Low: -78 F . Wind ENE 29 mph . Windchill: -121 F .
Sunday
Chance of Snow. Overcast. High: -65 F . Wind WSW 8 mph . Chance of precipitation 20% (trace amounts). Windchill: -104 F .
Sunday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: -74 F . Wind East 26 mph . Chance of precipitation 20% (trace amounts). Windchill: -106 F .
Was in Artic in 84,Tromso Norway.
brrrrrrr..
ACCN10 CWTO 152024
Convective weather forecast for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region
At 4:24 PM EDT Friday 15 May 2009.
This forecast is issued at 4 AM and 4.30 PM daily between May 1
And September 30.
Note: this is not a severe weather watch warning or special weather
Statement.
Discussion of thunderstorm potential.
Tonight..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms with heavy
Downpours and gusty winds are possible over northwestern Ontario
Near the Minnesota border in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms
With heavy downpours and gusty winds are expected over southwestern
Ontario by morning. Some of these storms may approach severe limits.
Saturday..A few non-severe thunderstorms are likely along a sharp
frontal system as it races through southern and northeastern
Ontario. Some of these may approach severe limits with very strong
Winds..Heavy downpours and frequent lightning.
A severe thunderstorm is defined as having one or more of the
following
- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres diameter or greater.
- rainfall rate greater than 50 millimetres in 1 hour or
Less or 75 millimetres in 3 hours or less.
- tornadoes
END/OSPC
WOCN11 CWTO 151610
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region.
12:10 PM EDT Friday 15 May 2009.
Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Jack frost may make a visit on Victoria day morning..
Latest computer model guidance has been consistently suggesting a
strong Arctic high pressure area will build down over the lower Great
Lakes Sunday into Monday. Brisk northwesterly winds in advance of
the high pressure system will pump in unseasonably chilly Arctic air
Sunday..With temperatures during the daytime struggling to reach
double digits in most areas. These values will be some ten degrees
lower than average maximum temperatures in the upper teens for this
time of year.
If the skies clear and winds drop off Sunday evening as is currently
Expected..The mercury will once again plunge to near the freezing
mark in many areas by Monday morning. This will set the stage for
the possibility of another spring frost across much of southern and
eastern Ontario.
The may long weekend is typically the time that many gardeners will
plant tender vegetation for the coming summer growing season.
Gardeners should be aware of the latest forecasts and be prepared for
the possibility of frost Sunday night into Monday morning.
Listen for further statements. Additional information
may also be found by consulting the latest public forecast.
The next public forecast will be issued by 3.30 PM.
END/OSPC
You know, I wish the pioneers which came over from England and settled in North America were more original with their names.
Keep seeing towns like 'London', 'York', and the county (& duchy) of 'Cornwall'.. thinking "Oh, what's going on..?"
Then realise it's on the other side of the world.
*slapface*
Yes, mess up all the postal addresses if changed now.
Still, you can just imagine what it's going to be like if any further planets were colonised.
'Newer Hampshire', or maybe a bit of 'York 3.0'.
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