First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked
A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.
Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.
The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.
I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Absorbed by the larger low which has a fair chance of becoming 91L.
yep, but she's still nekkid so we can't see her!
Cotillion, was is TD16 that parked itself over Honduras last year and drove us all nutz?
450. gbTracker
Fay was another one...went island hopping, never wanted to get both feet wet, lots of potential that just never happened. Then got to the keys and was trapped with nowhere to go. I remember the models looking like a mushroom. came onshore SW FL. then north then corkscrewed her way over to melborne up the East coast slowly and across to the panhandle...long, slow, and wet!
Yup, that was the bunny. Had Omar at the time too.
Link
90l has made me more then ready for the approaching season
waitin on 91
rhut rho
That was my favorite post last year...Ants are contraflowing into my house...LOL
I saved that one...will have to dig it up
Conditions at 41008 as of
(2:50 pm EDT)
1850 GMT on 05/19/2009:
- Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
- Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
- Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
- Wave Height (WVHT): 11.8 ft
- Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
- Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
- Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Hey Storm !
Full-screen
Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 2:50:00 PM
Winds: NE (40°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.11 in and falling
Up to 50 knots a few hours ago.
How are the Gulf SST's doing ? I am showing 1006 in Bradenton, this thing must be broken.
Seems like someone just read my mind! LOL
After going to the link you provided and taking a real good look, I don't see any surface low over the Keys. But I did see a rather vigorous surface low from ex-Invest 90L. Also seems like its underneath that convective burst over the Bahamas as well. Don't know, but they may have deactivated a bit soon.
Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
Not that I'm complaining - but it certainly has been raining.
Dark clouds on their way to SWFL...Ft myers. Pressure dropping...figures that it would not rain for 6 months and then it rains during the nba playoffs when I am off work and my direct tv will be fuzzy....nice.
It isn't and he really shouldn't be doing that.
Oh well.
Try to send some of that to West Palm. Haven't seen a drop all day.
Duck if you see Cantori!
I was hoping we had seen the last of that. Too much last season.
Thanks Storm, I could not find anything from today. I thought they were updated more frequently :)
LOL
Where is Patrap with one of his Cantore pictures?
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