First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked
A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.
Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.
The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.
I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If that holds true, it increases the risk of strikes on the East Coast north of FL.
Although, he was wrong about the 2005 season...
I have. The GFS has been consistent on it so far. I'm not sure it will actually verify but it is something for South Florida to keep an eye on.
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information
GOM IR Loop
240hrs is 10 days.
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx
Hey KEEPER, I found a couple of them lurking around, but I'm not sure I can handle both of them:
Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.
Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
Well, we are based out of Clearwater. :) Probably out on a training flight, or getting vectors around the weather. I'll be flying Thursday night and Friday. ;)
That may be. But the story does say:
Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.
So I guess his guess is an educated guess. I was just point out the theory as the rain pounded outside!
Long time no see! Guess we won't be converging on Crab Island this Memorial Weekend. Looks like we are going to be rained in. : (
whats a pre-91l???? You mean like a pre-pre-pre-91l that has 1 cloud in the atlantic?
Good evening Beachfoxx and hello Tampa!
Beachfoxx I'm going to Crab Island Saturday and Sunday so this thing is going to (needs to) stay South and head to LA or TX!
2005 was a rough season and in March we had record rainfall amounts.....
Hmmmm, I wish I could remember the quote.
It will probably wake me up in middle of the night! LOL
Thats for sure......I don't see a 91L coming.....Heck 90L should not have been an invest in my opinion!
ROFL!
what remains
Does it develop it into an organized system?
?, are you saying whats happening or what's happen. LOL. I'm confused
LOL Drak.
He's like a JFV/STORMTOP Hybrid.
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0030z 20MAY)
============================================
An area of convection (99W) located at 10.3N 116.7E or 360 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows an area of flaring convection near a developing low level circulation center. THe low level circulation center currently is weak and elongated and convective banding is only beginning to develop. Upper level analysis reveals low to moderate vertical wind shear over the developing low level circulation center.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Since the low level circulation center is weak and elongated with little convective banding, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Oh they're definitely here!
L8R
That's certainly been the theme today! Evidently the early invest got everyone excited! I'm just waiting and watching here in NW FL, pretty sure it's just going to be a rain event just not sure on the timing of it and just whose Memorial Day weekend it's going to soak.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
854 PM CDT Tuesday may 19 2009
Long term...
he Gulf disturbance mentioned above pertains to upper level low
that is developing near Florida which was the base of the previous
trough that has been cut off. At this time...still looks like the low will
continue to be cold core and not tropical in nature. GFS and
NAM/dgex just Haven/T had any run to run consistency on the
location...path...strength...etc. Of this feature. The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand has maintained its solution for at least the last 4 runs.
This model shifts the surface and upper ridge currently impacting the
County Warning Area weather to the east. A weakness in the ridge on the western side
develops later this week from progressively moving trough well to the
north. This will allow the low to change its westerly track to more
northerly towards the central Gulf Coast. The European model (ecmwf) consistently has
problems with excessive output of rainfall...so not so in to going
verbatim on the precipitation. But biggest concern for the later part of
the week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall. Will have to
continue to monitor but the potential exists for the issuance of a
Flash Flood Watch. In terms of yearly rainfall total...the area is
somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 inches below normal. Its
possible that localize event totals could reach the lower end of
this value. Still on the lower side of confidence...but a better
idea as to how the event will unfold will come with time.
Model Cycle: 2009052000
North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones
Link
Yeah, but it's a long shot.
I think it means colder cloud tops.
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