First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Appreciate the observation; I meant any "tropical" development..It is turning out to be pretty strong low nonetheless, and there are strong winds associated with it, but, I am north of it in Tallahassee and while a circulation is evident, it's a very cool/dry wind and not a lick of any discernable rain..This cold front was a pretty strong one for this time of the year and has left a very dry/cool airmass over the Northern Gulf areas which are feeding right into it...


Yes i agree, It felt like fall in New Orleans this morning and yesterday
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
Quoting fishinfool33825:


Pressure in center of state (Highlands) currently 29.82 inch steady


thanks!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
things on the radars should start exploding starting in SEFL moving east.....especially w/cooler air aloft,low pressure in the area and the sun breaking thru warming the humid unstable air at the surface,IMO


Partly sunny now in Jupiter, noticed it got rather sticky in a hurry. Thinking that bumped up the T-Storm strengths a tad.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
...This whole mess is going to leave behind some energy in the S Bahamas in a few days...So it may be there...


SJ... Um...
No thanks!
We are glad to share
or export any energy left behind.

CRS
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Can someone post the pressure readings for western Florida please. I am currently at work and the websites we can visit are very limited.
TIA


Pressure in center of state (Highlands) currently 29.82 inch steady
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StormW, as always a good read!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3081
Quoting canesrule1:
neither I'll say 50/50 both.


both face big obstacles but I am going to have to lean with the ULL entering the GOM... If it had a LLC I would def say the GOM... the thing is 90L is an open trof again... argh... why can't it be easy
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Quoting weatherman874:


It has made itself a fairly moist surrounding, and the strong north winds along the gulf are starting to switch around which would stop the dry air from entering the system


Appreciate the observation; I meant any "tropical" development..It is turning out to be pretty strong low nonetheless, and there are strong winds associated with it, but, I am north of it in Tallahassee and while a circulation is evident, it's a very cool/dry wind and not a lick of any discernable rain..This cold front was a pretty strong one for this time of the year and has left a very dry/cool airmass over the Northern Gulf areas which are feeding right into it...
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Any system at any level, located from the panhandle down, should be pulled S according to latest steering. Here's the lower level, click here for the other levels.

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267. MTJax
The FL radar image works good one viewing the system overall



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STORM W what kind of conditions do you tink we will have here on the NC coast
Thanks for the update
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FL pressure map
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting tennisgirl08:


so which one has the most potential for development?
neither I'll say 50/50 both.
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Well well well, still 13 days to go before "Hurricane Season" and here we are talking about this. Glad to be back, hopefully we won't really have much to talk about this season!!!
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


90L is firing some good convection and Yes the swirl that is pulling moisture into the GOM will prob soon be 91L


so which one has the most potential for development?
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Very true Viking... Good to see your familiar mug back on here!


Yeah been off in the hunting and then fishing forums for a while. It was the Destin Marine forecast that brought me back here when it stated a low over South Florida would move into the GOM by Thursday bring windy weather with a chance of storms! I really hope this doesn't mess up my Memorial Day Weekend plans of chilling out at Crab Island in the boat! Glad to see you and a lot of other familiar faces still around!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3081
Quoting nchurricane:

Look at the three cluster of showers around 90L
true
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258. 7544
look at the 3 blobs to the east of sf thats where all the rain will be comoing from so yes imo sf will get very wet stay tuned
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
does anyone see the swirl just off the west coast of Florida? Is this going to be 91L? This seems to be moving West and taking the moisture with it. Moving faster than I expected. But seems to lack convection.

As for 90L, is that the current blob over the bahamas? seems to have more convection.


90L is firing some good convection and Yes the swirl that is pulling moisture into the GOM will prob soon be 91L
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I'll stick with my earlier comment that the dry/cooler air out of the Gulf is going to prevent any significant development...It's now starting to wrap around from the Gulf towards the east side of the low....I think it may choke it off and it will never turn into a surface low at this rate...


It has made itself a fairly moist surrounding, and the strong north winds along the gulf are starting to switch around which would stop the dry air from entering the system
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
Quoting canesrule1:

Look at the three cluster of showers around 90L
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


The pressure is higher there then it was a few hours ago.
Link
true, how about miami the pressure is pretty low here.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Very true Viking... Good to see your familiar mug back on here!


Nor'easter in the gulf. LOL...
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does anyone see the swirl just off the west coast of Florida? Is this going to be 91L? This seems to be moving West and taking the moisture with it. Moving faster than I expected. But seems to lack convection.

As for 90L, is that the current blob over the bahamas? seems to have more convection.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Only problem with that is typical nor'easters don't go West into the GOM!


Very true Viking... Good to see your familiar mug back on here!
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latest WV image
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Quoting canesrule1:
Port Charlotte,FL is showing 29.86 and falling rapidly


The pressure is higher there then it was a few hours ago.
Link
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
I'll stick with my earlier comment that the dry/cooler air out of the Gulf is going to prevent any significant development...It's now starting to wrap around from the Gulf towards the east side of the low....I think it may choke it off and it will never turn into a surface low at this rate...
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Right now in Miami it is 29.79 and falling.
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couple of interesting things i would like to point out *HERE*
i notice some of the outter bands are reaching my area here in NC. A big chunk of clounds appear to be converging with 90L. Pre-91L looks to be heading west
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Interesting research on how Ocean currents effect climate-
Greenhouse To Ice House: Important Role Of The Indonesian Gateway Suggested
One of the mysteries of the Earth's history is the fundamental climate change in the Mid Pliocene, about 3.5-2.5 million years ago. By that time warm climate conditions ended and the ice caps in the ... > full storyLink
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Port Charlotte,FL is showing 29.86 and falling rapidly
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BTW thanks CanesRule for the info
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep typical nor'easter


Only problem with that is typical nor'easters don't go West into the GOM!
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240. JRRP
Quoting tennisgirl08:
does anyone know what the SST's are in the gulf?


Link
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I will be very surprised if this massive area doesn't produce at least one more invest somewhere...This whole mess is going to leave behind some energy in the S Bahamas in a few days...So it may be there...
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Being that Tampa is probably the closest city well it just goes to show that it's not even close to working its way to the surface
that is true, i will continue to post some cities.
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Quoting canesrule1:
Tampa has a pressure of 29.92 and rising, you want any other cities?


Being that Tampa is probably the closest city well it just goes to show that it's not even close to working its way to the surface
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Quoting stillwaiting:
things on the radars should start exploding starting in SEFL moving east.....especially w/cooler air aloft,low pressure in the area and the sun breaking thru warming the humid unstable air at the surface,IMO
that is true, i posted the radar image and thunderstorms are beginning to pop.
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things on the radars should start exploding starting in SEFL moving east.....especially w/cooler air aloft,low pressure in the area and the sun breaking thru warming the humid unstable air at the surface,IMO
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Can someone post the pressure readings for western Florida please. I am currently at work and the websites we can visit are very limited.
TIA
Tampa has a pressure of 29.92 and rising, Naples has it at 29.85 and steady.
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Can someone post the pressure readings for western Florida please. I am currently at work and the websites we can visit are very limited.
TIA
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Quoting quakeman55:


Go Gators!

But back to 90L...
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!:-)
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Current South Florida radar courtesy of WSVN 7
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Quoting canesrule1:
yea, my name is canesrule1 because i am a big Miami hurricanes college football team fan.


Go Gators!

But back to 90L...
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228. JRRP
Quoting canesrule1:
I think the names should be 90L and 90L(B), it looks like its in 2

LOL....
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Quoting quakeman55:


Funny how you say that when you yourself have the word "Cane" in your own handle...

But I'm guessing that 80% of these handles you speak of came after you created yours.
yea, my name is canesrule1 because i am a big Miami hurricanes college football team fan.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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