First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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not sure I'm following you there Cane, 90L, what's left of it, looks to continue NE does it not? Could you post the NHC segment you're referring to?
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Very likely with no surface lows. Right now this is just a big, active ULL.
right now that is exactly what is happening.
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Quoting tea3781:
According to the latest run of the GFS model..it looks like it may dispitate in the gulf...


Very likely with no surface lows. Right now this is just a big, active ULL.
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
what i mean is all the thunderstorm activity offshore looks like its rotating to the north and then northwest with the counterclockwise rotation if south florida is going to get rain its going to come from the southwest and from the seabreeze collision over us
ok now i get you
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Also, don't be miss-lead by the look of the cloud decks on radar and the nice "rainbow" colors on the satt loops...A lot of it is reflection from the cloud deck...I'm in Tallhassee, and while the loops look impressive, not a drop of rain is falling; just overcast and no dark clouds........
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Quoting Ossqss:
From the looks of the loop, the dry air is going right up the keys to Dade. The convection seems to be east of S FL moving N and then west over the N 1/2 of FL. Could this thing dry up?

Link


it could but the seabreeze will still provides thunderstorms for south florida but not the soaking rain we had last night
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.
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From the looks of the loop, the dry air is going right up the keys to Dade. The convection seems to be east of S FL moving N and then west over the N 1/2 of FL. Could this thing dry up?

Link
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Quoting canesrule1:
that is what i am saying but nobody agrees.
i do but how can the circulation center come though south florida if it is moving west maybe you mean all the wet weather but see my previous response that will explain
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Quoting canesrule1:
what do you mean? The NHC stated that the system is moving westward thus meaning straight to south Florida, and that is what the models are stating, right?
what i mean is all the thunderstorm activity offshore looks like its rotating to the north and then northwest with the counterclockwise rotation if south florida is going to get rain its going to come from the southwest and from the seabreeze collision over us
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Quoting weatherman874:
pre 91l seems to be moving west? any thoughts
that is what i am saying but nobody agrees.
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Quoting canesrule1:
what do you mean? The NHC stated that the system is moving westward thus meaning straight to south Florida, and that is what the models are stating, right?

Umm.... it's west of Tampa ... it's not moving toward south FL if it's moving west, though the heavy rain may be.
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pre 91l seems to be moving west? any thoughts
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
when and where is the question and is that going to materialize it seems to me from lake o points north unless thunderstorms develop to our southwest which can still happen with the heating of the day
what do you mean? The NHC stated that the system is moving westward thus meaning straight to south Florida, and that is what the models are stating, right?
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Station 41012
NDBC
Location: 30.041N 80.533W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 9:50:00 AM
Winds: NNW (330degrees) at 7.8 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (59degrees)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and rising
Air Temperature: 68.7 F
Dew Point: 66.9 F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
looked like a hurricane?
the entire west and SW sides are devoid of much convection and is there even a surface reflection yet? Looks like a midlevel cyclone to me, hardly a hurricane. Or is there something I'm missing?
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Where is all the rain at???? South Florida misses out again!!!!
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UNCLASSIFIED
Back
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2009051906
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Jax Radar with Storm Tracks
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According to the latest run of the GFS model..it looks like it may dispitate in the gulf...
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NEXRAD Radar
Tampa, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
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thanks
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does anyone know what the SST's are in the gulf?
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Quoting canesrule1:
Get ready for a drenching south Florida!!
when and where is the question and is that going to materialize it seems to me from lake o points north unless thunderstorms develop to our southwest which can still happen with the heating of the day
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dry air doesn't seem to affect a subtropical system.
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152. kingy
canesrule - this system will bring a massive amount of moisture into the GOM, given the epic dimensions of this early season blob I wonder whether we will be surprised what happens when it does end up in the gulf. The SST's are not really hot enough yet i guess
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PATRAP
can you put up the link for that GOM Radar please
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Animations,Atlantic Basin
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Get ready for a drenching south Florida!!
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based on radar and satelite i belive the majority of the rain will fall to the north and northeast side of the circulation which means central and northeast florida south florida will probably get afternoon seabreeze thunderstorm the only difference is that they will be very good soakers and will favor the east coast metro areas
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I think (30% chance) we will have a subtropical depression or Subtropical Storm Ana by Friday. Florida is getting drenched, and the northern gulf coast states will get drenched this weekend. Just an annoying nuisance to our long holiday weekend.

The system is so large..those IR loops are quite a sight to see.
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Look at all the dry air!!!!!
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami

There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
A Lot and i mean a lot of dry air in the gulf!!!
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NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI
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Lots of dry air plunging southward into the mix.

Link
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So when is all this rain coming to Miami?
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I think we might have a Subtropical Depression coming in the next day or so (most likely from pre-91L).
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Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop

Holy **** when i first looked at it i thought it was a hurricane!!!
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A slow westerly drift has started with the system.


Its gorgeous here in NOLA on the Northerly flow side.

71.6 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 24%
Dew Point: 33 F
Wind: 3.1 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 5.4 mph
Pressure: 30.21 in (Steady)
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137. kingy
patrap - interesting to see the flow of the clouds in this system, especially over the east Fl coast/GOM
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GOM IR Loop

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Quoting Patrap:
SREF Ensemble
its coming to miami!!!
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SREF Ensemble
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I don't know how anyone would NOT welcome this system with open arms after the dry season and accompanying wildfire season we've had. Thank the Lord for the MUCH MUCH MUCH needed rain!
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http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200990_sat.jpg

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I have over 2 in. in my rain gauge since 2:00am here in Titusville, FL. We need a ton more...Hope all are enjoying the early taste of the season.
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Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
is the low off of tampa moving at all we need it to move a couple of hundred miles west so the east side of it moves over South Florida
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What about that blob east of Jamaica
That is just a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, there will be no tropical development with that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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