First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked
A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.
Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.
The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.
I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think the GFS has hit it on the head. I think our low will hang out in the GOM for a while trying to moisten up before heading north over TX and LA.
GOES-12 WV Channel-3 With Dry Air Shaded,Atlantic
Ya, i am just right there on the ocean between Satellite Beach and Palm Bay markers. Getting messy out there.
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI
Melbourne, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI
Is your name Julie?
storms.
glad to see your on the job still Jeff!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009
stay safe
last post for the night see ya all in the am
Be wary of the flooding to come.
yes...?
Julie Hodgin?
no, doppleganger maybe? but my name IS julie
Actually, how about 50 knots off the GA coast?
Ga. Coast has that round.
Too funny, Pat! LOL
Goodnight!
I'm gonna eat his children.
Thank you. You see, I have a program that arhives the marine data from Oceanweather.com but when I was analysing the GOM, that 50 knot station was on the border of the image and so the station's name did show up. Could not determine whether that was a true observastions or error and forgot to check NDBC.
------------------------------------------
WS, no[e, I already slept so I'm here looking at some observastions across the areas affected.
Or at least bite their ears off!
GOM 60 Hour Surface Current Forecast Model,Loop Current
Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.
Looks like that Low is really trying to moisten up its environment.. just about has the dry air in the GOM pinched off...
UNCLASSIFIED
Back
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2009052000
500mb Heights Relative Vorticity Temp [C]
National Weather Service New Orleans la
854 PM CDT Tuesday may 19 2009
Long term...
he Gulf disturbance mentioned above pertains to upper level low
that is developing near Florida which was the base of the previous
trough that has been cut off. At this time...still looks like the low will
continue to be cold core and not tropical in nature. GFS and
NAM/dgex just Haven/T had any run to run consistency on the
location...path...strength...etc. Of this feature. The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand has maintained its solution for at least the last 4 runs.
This model shifts the surface and upper ridge currently impacting the
County Warning Area weather to the east. A weakness in the ridge on the western side
develops later this week from progressively moving trough well to the
north. This will allow the low to change its westerly track to more
northerly towards the central Gulf Coast. The European model (ecmwf) consistently has
problems with excessive output of rainfall...so not so in to going
verbatim on the precipitation. But biggest concern for the later part of
the week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall. Will have to
continue to monitor but the potential exists for the issuance of a
Flash Flood Watch. In terms of yearly rainfall total...the area is
somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 inches below normal. Its
possible that localize event totals could reach the lower end of
this value. Still on the lower side of confidence...but a better
idea as to how the event will unfold will come with time.
Meffer
nontropical wise...it formed near the straits earlier this evening near 24N and 81W...and its located offshore Naples..but its not tropical.
Now there are many lows along its warmfront .. 1 went onshore about 1 hr ago near the Cape.. another is near Abaco Island.
Quoting Weather456:
Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.
gotvha so its 1;30am?
Its May, time here is 12:45am
There is a LLC. Link
Melbourne, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI
The System is Holding its own over the Fla Land Mass as it slowly slides west thru time.
Lotsa energy is going to Swing into the Eastern and Central GOM.
Should be interesting to see how it coalesces tomorrow in those Waters
Yea, a broad one
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