Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.
A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.
On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.
La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.
Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Latest WV Image. Spookie ,eh?
LOL, I think that's because nobody wants this low to ruin their Memorial Day weekend! Personally I think by sitting and spinning over the same area for so long it's going to pull up some cooler water that could cause it to weaken overnight. The water in the GOM only recently warmed up to 80 in some areas and that is at the surface. Deeper water hasn't had a chance to warm yet.
Algiers Point
12Z CMC
So when you changing yours? Rita retired 2005.
Very impressive!! I thought all that dry air would have made it less pretty. LOL
Visible Image
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
We have not had any rain in South Dade today, but looking at radar we may get some tonight.
Texas needs the rain far more than we do...
Key West, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Here's "wishcasting" for a beautiful weekend on Florida's Emerald Coast!
LOL
TTYL
Thanks sjm
Over..?
I'll second that, here's to "wishcasting" a beautiful boating weekend on the Emerald Coast!
Nose Joway (No way, Jose.)
Any blue in that map this time of year is nothing but cloud temps contaminating SST values.
It is a pretty picture, but SSTs less than 24 C in the open GoM does not exist in May, even with a few days of clouds and rain.
Maybe if a major TC stirred up a lot of water ya might see a few 23 or 22s...or a river outflow from Florida in about a day.
Well if we have some major hurricane named atmoaggie, I am just retiring. Period. In my 30s.
Thanks for the clarification, thats what I was fishing for ! I really liked the Blue better than the Brown :)
Got a link?
it reminds me of the firefox icon....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
I wouldn't be so sure about that. The buoy 12 miles South of Orange Beach, AL is reading 73.9F or 23C. There was a lot of rain in the Alabama and NW Florida area this spring keeping water temps down with river and stream runoff and lots of cloudy days. I found several buoys reporting 24C and 25C. This low combined with the cold front has helped some water temps drop as much as 5 or 6 degrees in the past week.
I didn't wish that beast on anyone.
That's much Catchier too..
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
549 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT DRUM...
NORTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.
* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 24 MILES EAST OF FORT DRUM...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITE CITY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY AT 600 PM EDT
RURAL NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY AT 620 PM EDT
RURAL SOUTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY AT 630 PM EDT
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.
Vero Beach Radar Shows TVS
ABPZ20 KNHC 201748
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Does this qualify as a "wishcast"?
even then it'd be a stretch I'd think.... I was thinking that sub 22C temps had to be wrong myself. I suspect we'll see a pullback of 2C or so. should recover quickly if winds are light after it exits
Dont mind him.
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