Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.
A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.
On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.
La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.
Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ROFLMAO!I should change my nic!
Seems like a good place for a trip to Square Lake for me.
Good Night All!
LOL, thought you might get a kick out of that! Have a good sleep - reminds me, need to add you to lagniappe! What say you, Ana or not?
And you?
(Oh the indignity)
No fair! It's a yes or a no lol!
I want to know if something interesting is going to happen when the tropical wave at 68W collides with the stationary low (with LLC) at 75W?
Ok, goodnight....Ladies
Good night, darlin'! ;)
Yup, was just lookin' at 'em - awesome. That Lake Blanche must've been the sweet spot! Good pics, too. Thanks for sharing.
So...Goodnight, CatDL.
Thanks!
Yup, that workin' sure gets in the way of havin' fun! Glad you're getting a couple of days off to enjoy and relax! :)
Has your entire baseball team asleep yet?
I was in your neck of the woods last week for a few days, an hour away I guess. Spent a few days in Destin - all perfect until Sunday when that cool front came crashin' through there. 'Twas nice to see the pretty water again and relax if even for only a few days. Past that, same ol' grind, just watching this economy continue to tank is all.
I'm out. Have a good sleep, all!
"I may eat crow. But rlly think it will be treated as a non-tropical low thru-out its existence. Impacts remain same either way."
Ha, I never thought anyone at TWC would use the ol' crow terminology. Who from this blog has been talking to them?? Someone sneak them our crow recipe?? lol
welcome back.
All but two are asleep! Yeah!
Maybe they read Dr.Masters blog too much lol :)
its at 1.3N???
21/0230 UTC 1.3N 134.4E T1.0/1.0 90W -- West Pacific
Latest GFS looks to have the usual feedback problems, especially toward the end of the run
There will continue to be weak pressures from the eastern GOM thru the Bahamas all week.....weak areas of low pressure will form..but waters are in the mid-upper 70s in the bahamas and off eastern florida north of WPB... We have 2-3 weeks before anything in the carribean or the GOM will form tropically.
Scott, would like you to stick your neck out and give your take of the season. One of the local mets here in SETX said this year would be well below average and nothing for us to worry about...
Off to bed, Goodnight ev1
Sorry MLC i was a little slow i just updated my Blog if anyone would like to view....but, NO ANA that i see just alot of rain to continue with inland flooding a big concern.
TampaSpins Link
Link
Still calling for neutral.
However, it will ultimately be the timing of the El Nino that will make or break the season.
The only years since 1950 that haven't seen major hurricanes are 1968, 1972, 1986, and 1994. Even during 1982 and 1983, when we had the strongest El Nino observed, we saw a major hurricane in both years. Same with 1997.
If you go to my Tropical Prediction Analysis Tab on my Wed you will see my Forecast for each system and my yearly forecast and why..i also posted a 2009 Tropical Blog Outlook on April 30th and the reasoning Why!
TampaSpin Link
WTF?
Even if the season does turn out to be below average, that means NOTHING. It only takes ONE.
We are jinxed for sure now! LOL
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