Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2009

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The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.

A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.

On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.

La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.

Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.

Jeff Masters

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any part of the GOM can support STD development right now!!!
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174. IKE
GFS has the low coming in right at the mouth of the Mississippi river in 102 hrs...paging stormtop!
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why must you all pick on people

because some things never change
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT
NATIONAL DRAMA SERVICE JFV FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THIS IS A SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT AND NOT A WATCH OR WARNING

DRAMA TODAY AT TIMES OVER WHOS WHO IN DRAMA LAND WILL BE FOLLOW BY OUTBURSTS OF ACCUSATIONS AND INSINUATIONS TOWARDS OTHERS
DURING THIS TIME OF DRAMA ONE SHOULD CLICK MINUS SIGN IN TOP RIGHT CORNER TO REMOVE THE DRAMA AND ALLOW THE FLOW OF NORMAL INFORMATION

&&



OMG! Freakin Hilarious! That should get "best post of the year" LMFAO!
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Quoting Patrap:

#121

Pat... I love that long dry air "eel" with a bat head you are sending down this way from LA. Ask folks there not to burl up too many crawfish in BIG HUGE pots... cause that might introduce too much moisture into the Orange Eel... which we do not need!

I just heard a plane landing from the "wrong way" and looked at my anemometer.... sho nuff... my light breeze is now WSW... jus call me real time Quickscat...
CRS
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GOM WV Loop ,Wide View
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WeatherStudent please check your mail :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Wind shear appears to be lower in the area where the suspect low is in the GOM....is it forecast to stay low?
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busted.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
surface low now apparently forming SW of Ft myers area...its starting to build bands near its center.....its slowly begining to transition to a warm core,IMO...
based on long range radar there are indications BUT i would wait longer to see, it still has a long ways to go
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StomierJunkier!


LOL
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Quoting IKE:


Yup...it's official.

Welcome back JFV...

OOPS! LOL....


I knew it! lol
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Quoting StormJunkie:


JFV is not a "bad" person, just different and tends to get a little over excited when bad weather approaches...

The real StormTop has not been around for a while, but he was notorious for predicting everything to turn in to a Cat 8 and hit New Orleans...





Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you for that, StomierJunkier!


He admits to being JFV... he walked into that 1.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
surface low now apparently forming SW of Ft myers area...its starting to build bands near its center.....its slowly begining to transition to a warm core,IMO...
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There is Plenty of Sustainable SST in the GOM..the Valid Stamp isnt for Show..

LOL

Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


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158. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:



So he admits that he is him!!! There you guys go!


Yup...it's official.

Welcome back JFV...

OOPS! LOL....
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Quoting 69Viking:


Seems nobody is paying attention to the water temperature. I just don't see anything happening with the water temperatures running 75-78 ahead of where this low is headed.


Still agree with you 100%....I just noted below that the slightly warmer temps near the coc are probably going to allow temporary flare up of showers down there but it is still headed into the graveyard (no warm fuel) as is keeps on moving into the Gulf......
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Quoting cajungeo5:
hurricanehanna.......who do you work for?
my company had a crawfish boil at our alabama office so was wondering if that included you


Hey Cajun - it was one of our Workers Comp companies here in Louisiana.
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155. IKE
12Z GFS is running...brings in copious moisture along the north-central gulf coast in the next 3+ days.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you for that, StomierJunkier!



So he admits that he is him!!! There you guys go!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
GOM 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast

Loop Current


Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


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Quoting StormJunkie:


JFV is not a "bad" person, just different and tends to get a little over excited when bad weather approaches...

The real StormTop has not been around for a while, but he was notorious for predicting everything to turn in to a Cat 8 and hit New Orleans...


Ahhhh...I see. Thanks for answering. I can put my curiosity to rest now!! Back to lurking...:)
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150. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT
NATIONAL DRAMA SERVICE JFV FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THIS IS A SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT AND NOT A WATCH OR WARNING

DRAMA TODAY AT TIMES OVER WHOS WHO IN DRAMA LAND WILL BE FOLLOW BY OUTBURSTS OF ACCUSATIONS AND INSINUATIONS TOWARDS OTHERS
DURING THIS TIME OF DRAMA ONE SHOULD CLICK MINUS SIGN IN TOP RIGHT CORNER TO REMOVE THE DRAMA AND ALLOW THE FLOW OF NORMAL INFORMATION

&&



LOL :)
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Quoting reedzone:


Again thats IF convection forms, dry air is there, but doesn't seem to be as strong as bloggers said it was. Shear is marginal to favorable for development, so it's a wait and see.


Seems nobody is paying attention to the water temperature. I just don't see anything happening with the water temperatures running 75-78 ahead of where this low is headed.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT
NATIONAL DRAMA SERVICE JFV FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THIS IS A SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT AND NOT A WATCH OR WARNING

DRAMA TODAY AT TIMES OVER WHOS WHO IN DRAMA LAND WILL BE FOLLOW BY OUTBURSTS OF ACCUSATIONS AND INSINUATIONS TOWARDS OTHERS
DURING THIS TIME OF DRAMA ONE SHOULD CLICK MINUS SIGN IN TOP RIGHT CORNER TO REMOVE THE DRAMA AND ALLOW THE FLOW OF NORMAL INFORMATION

&&

i love it this is awesome
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

GOM IR Loop
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Gotta give the system a "B" right now for trying...Trying to build some convection around the COC in the "southern" part of the SE gulf where the temps are probably a little warmer right now than a few hundred miles to the north/ne.......
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south florida is going to get rocked this afternoon with severe thunderstorms with the daytime heating and the seabreeze convergence in a few hours and with all the moisture in place get ready for a good soaking :)
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NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page


12ZNAM


06Z Multi-Model


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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT
NATIONAL DRAMA SERVICE JFV FL
1145 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THIS IS A SPECIAL DRAMA STATEMENT AND NOT A WATCH OR WARNING

DRAMA TODAY AT TIMES OVER WHOS WHO IN DRAMA LAND WILL BE FOLLOW BY OUTBURSTS OF ACCUSATIONS AND INSINUATIONS TOWARDS OTHERS
DURING THIS TIME OF DRAMA ONE SHOULD CLICK MINUS SIGN IN TOP RIGHT CORNER TO REMOVE THE DRAMA AND ALLOW THE FLOW OF NORMAL INFORMATION

&&

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What A Mess This Is, LOL.

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based on the key west radar it looks like this system is really getting organized i think by friday we may have subtropical storm ana but i give it a 40% chance of that
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Quoting scottsvb:


Its still another 36hrs away..it could be a invest tomorrow..and maybe if it acquires more thunderstorms near its COC..then maybe in 2 days they will send a plane in to check it out.


Again thats IF convection forms, dry air is there, but doesn't seem to be as strong as bloggers said it was. Shear is marginal to favorable for development, so it's a wait and see.
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Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


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yes 456 there seems to be some action with this system. it appears to me that shear is on the slack a bit and recent qs is showing a little refletion at the surface. there is also a little convergence and i suspect there is a possibility of a sub tropical storm forming
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GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using SWAN)
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Mornin, any action in the EPac yet?
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Quoting reedzone:
Dry air is not as strong as people said it was, shear is marginal to low, it can develop some Subtropical characteristics in time.. seems like my circulation was just a small little vortex, thanks for the quickscat. Will be watching that area now to see if convection can form.


Its still another 36hrs away..it could be a invest tomorrow..and maybe if it acquires more thunderstorms near its COC..then maybe in 2 days they will send a plane in to check it out.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting txcoastworrywart:
Hi guys! I am on the Freeport, Tx coast and pay NO attention to the weather until May/June of every year due to it being hurricane season (duh!), so I have been lurking for the past 2 weeks trying to get everyone's "feel" for the season....just a quick question....what is all the hype about Stormtop and JFV? Who is that and why are they such bad people?? Sorry, curiousity is killing me! Thanks for answering!


JFV is not a "bad" person, just different and tends to get a little over excited when bad weather approaches...

The real StormTop has not been around for a while, but he was notorious for predicting everything to turn in to a Cat 8 and hit New Orleans...
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This system sure had some action with it.
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Dry air is not as strong as people said it was, shear is marginal to low, it can develop some Subtropical characteristics in time.. seems like my circulation was just a small little vortex, thanks for the quickscat. Will be watching that area now to see if convection can form.
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i will cat
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GOES-12 Tropical Atlantic
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Quoting Patrap:
-- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009052012








Nicely filling in that dry slot over the southern peninsula, TY for the image. Should be an interesting afternoon with better coverage today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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