Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.
Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.
Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").
Jeff Masters
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy
Mark
www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Reader Comments
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here are the 1st 2 too keep a eye on
here the other one and maybe some in trying to get going be hide it
GOM WV Loop with 1 Bad frame
AOI #1
AOI #2
Otherwise...nothing really tropically to speak of... slight chance something off the bahamas in a few days..but that also will be also be extra tropical or just a low over coolish waters as the waters are in the mid 70s....Temps need to be near 80+ to help build thunderstorms.
I am expecting to get the waders out soon if the system draws all that convection over FL. No complaining, we are just starting to get some water back in the aquifer :)
Thanks
The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
The waters in the gulf simply can't support a cat 2, along with being surrounded by dry air (yes, there is a shield of moisture... and also very little convection). Also, please keep in mind this is MAY. Not August.
or higher? 90s?
did i say 90s???? nop did any here see me say 90??
i said sea temp in the gulf are in the 80s or higher but no higher then like 85
Hello Press. We lost ten here in PC Beach last year to rip currents. These people come to the beach once a year and are determined to get in the water regardless of conditions. They are really stepping up education and enforcement of the flag system but it's unlikely to do much good unfortunately.
At the risk of sounding cruel, is it really a loss? At least the adults who should know better? All candidates for Darwin awards in my book...
Galveston has beach water temps of 82-84 F, but once you get further offshore (20+ miles), the water temps are in the mid to upper 70s.
A few years back, I took off my hook and reeled one in at Longboat Pass, Sarasota. The lady did not even say thankyou. The police, Coasty's and life guard did however. They had not see that method prior. Spider wire line works well on 150 pounders :)
you said 80s or higher..what is higher than the 80s? anyways..I was joking thinking you just made a typo.
Regardless of knowing better, most people have a mentality of "that can't happen to me". All the time, you see people, who admit they know better, driving into water flooding a street, only to be amazed when their car is picked up and moved in 3 inches of water.
As proof of this mentality... look at people who stayed on the Bolivar Peninsula during Ike. They were told "if you stay, you will die". Lo and behold... many of them died. They were too prideful to admit that maybe, just maybe, mother nature is more powerful than their preparations. These warnings for rip currents are out there for a reason. Best to follow them.
The likelihood of competing climate factors leads to several physical scenarios for the hurricane season. Some scenarios are more likely than others, and these are reflected in our stated probabilities of expected activity. Based on these scenarios, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges:
9-14 Named Storms,
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median
Should be a round to watch.
LOL!
Statement as of 3:42 AM CDT on May 21, 2009
... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday
evening...
A coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening.
An area of low pressure will result in increasing east northeast and
easterly winds through Friday. These winds will pile water along
east facing shores from near Bay St. Louis to Port Fourchon and
increase tides further above normal over the next few days.
Tide levels were already running to slightly more than one foot
above normal near Waveland Mississippi and Lake Borgne. The
onshore winds will continue to cause water levels to rise to one
to one and a half feet above normal around the time of high tide
this morning and early afternoon... and up to two feet above
normal around the time of high tide Friday.
Minor flooding of low lying roadways may occur in Hancock County
Mississippi... and minor flooding of low lying areas may occur
outside of hurricane protection levees from near Lake Catherine
and Lake Borgne... to Grand Isle and Port Fourchon.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
Check your buoys Taz, you'll be hard pressed to find any water temperatures at 80 or above in the GOM between LA and Florida. This low has been spinning up the deeper cooler waters. The buoy closest to Destin went from 80 this past weekend to now reading 75.
You see how the storm as it continues moving to the west is about to stop the dry air from getting under it completely?
How To Escape a Rip Current
Here's How:
1. If caught in a rip current, don't panic. You may not realize you are in a rip current until you are suddenly further away from shore than you realized. Remain calm and conserve energy, you will need it to swim to safety.
2. Don't swim toward the shore. That is like swimming upstream in a river and you may become tired long before you reach the beach. Instead, swim parallel to the shore to escape the rip current. Once you feel you are out of the current, turn towards shore. Use landmarks to help you determine if you are still in the current.
3. If you cannot swim out of the rip current, calmly float or tread water until you are out of the current. Exhaustion is your biggest enemy, don't fight a rip current. When you are out, swim toward shore.
4. If you can't make it all the way to shore, stop swimming, face the beach, wave your hands and shout to attract attention.
Schools, homes hit as storm closes in
Article from: The Daily Telegraph
May 21, 2009
HEAVY rain has forced the closure of 200 schools and left 2000 homes without power on the NSW north coast as residents begin to experience the wild weather that has wreaked havoc in Queensland.
Gallery: Wild weather heads southLink
Rain that has swamped Queensland's southeast has headed south and the Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the NSW northern rivers, northern tablelands and mid-north coast.
The BoM website says the low off the Queensland coast is expected to bring very heavy rain, high winds and rough seas to northeast NSW today.
There are flood warnings in place for the Tweed, Wilsons, Bellinger, Orara and Brunswick Rivers.
In the 27 hours to 10am, 170mm of rain fell over the Tweed River area, with further heavy rain expected to cause minor flooding at nearby Murwillumbah.
In the 12 hours to 8am, 45mm fell in the Bellinger Valley area, with a further 120mm expected to cause minor flooding in Thora in the next 24 hours.
A NSW State Emergency Service (SES) spokeswoman said about 240 public and Catholic schools had been closed.
"The schools are not running educational programs but if students are requiring supervision they are open for that,'' she said.
"Obviously (this is) so that people aren't travelling, as we're certainly not encouraging unnecessary travel at this point given the weather situation.''
At the peak of the bad weather overnight, about 16,000 Country Energy customers on the NSW far north coast without power, but supplies were progressively restored today.
The Tweed area was worst affected, when a lightning strike knocked out powerlines to the north and south of the population centre, leaving 12,000 homes and businesses cut off.
05/21/2009 0800 am
Flagler Beach, Flagler County.
Heavy rain m14.98 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.
The amateur radio emergency service-react has received
14.96 inches of rain with this event.
05/21/2009 0800 am
Palm Coast, Flagler County.
Heavy rain m17.80 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.
The city of Palm Coast has received 17.80 inches of rain
with this event.
05/21/2009 0800 am
Bunnell, Flagler County.
Heavy rain m20.30 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Flagler County EOC has received 20.30 inches of rain with
this event.
05/20/2009 0625 PM
2 miles NW of Bunnell, Flagler County.
Heavy rain m23.75 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.
The emergency management reported a storm total of 23.75
at the County Fairgrounds from may 17th to 5 PM today.
05/20/2009 0330 PM
Bunnell, Flagler County.
Heavy rain m18.40 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Emergency management reported 4.4 inches of rain in
Bunnell since 8am this morning. This brings the storm
total rainfall to 18.4 inches.
05/20/2009 0205 PM
Bunnell, Flagler County.
Flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Emergency management reported flooding on multiple
secondary streets including some on the main roads across
Flagler County.
Your Correct....water temps went down 3-5dg(matters on depth of water) from the coldfront a few days ago. Water temps in the northern GOM are around 74-78dg...but in the warm loops eddy south of 26N its near 81dg..but anything north of there is marginal @ best!
NDBC page,Buoy Fest 09
Does anyone have a link for NOAA's real time environmental observations? I think it is called nowCOAST? I seemed to have lost my link. Thanks in advance!
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 65W...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE WEST OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA. A SECOND
SUCH CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 85W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BETWEEN
LAKE MARACAIBO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO.
MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. THE ONLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W CLOSE TO ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...
PROBABLY HAVING TO DO WITH THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING A BASE
NEAR 7N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 65W...
A NEW MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS FORMED AND IS MOVING TO A SPOT ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. A PERSISTENT AND NOW BROAD DEEP LAYER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED TO
32N48W ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 29N54W AT THE SURFACE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 37N
BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. THE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO WAS DROPPED
FROM THE ANALYSIS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 33N
BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO
26N26W TO 27N33W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A SOLID LINE OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
$$
MT
I seem to be not seeing *any* convection on the entire western half.
Also, note on the animations that the storms popping up very near the COC, on the north side, die off very quickly. There is no persistence around most of the COC. Only on the eastern side, and not much more than 90 degrees of coverage on that side.
Who are you and what are you doing on a blog that is designed to save lives? Your post goes way beyond cruel, in my opinion it places you at the top of your own Darwin awards list. It also gets you another coveted award, you are the very first person on my "Ignore List". Don't bother to try and reply to me, I no longer will see your comments. I will gladly take my 24 ban now and feel wonderful doing it. See you all tomorrow guys.
I guess this the TPC meant by an abnormally wet rainy season in FL.
here ya go CAT
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