Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.
Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.
Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").
Jeff Masters
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy
Mark
www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Reader Comments
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How much rain do you think SE Louisiana will see from this system by Tuesday?
HA HA I just spit out my coke when I read that
GOES-12 Atlantic IR Image Loop,wide angle
It's just part of the line of showers and thunderstorms stretching between Jamaica and Florida. They're being caused by diffluence aloft caused by the ULL in the gulf. They are not a threat to develop because they are being generated by baroclinic processes not tropical ones.
ok thanks of the answer levi
Model Cycle: 2009052112
North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones
12Z UKMET
12Z NOGAPS
12Z CMC
Montego Bay, Jamaica wunderground page.
fact is 90% of these that do go thru it land hard...just sayin.
Hiss,Snicker,coff
Gulf of Mexico - AVN Color Infrared Loop
nope. Its a baroclinic process (created by a trough of low pressure), and not ocean heat driven (which would be tropical). Also, shear over it is 40+ knots.
So, it simply will not develop.
Western Atlantic - AVN Color Infrared Loop
i expect to see a subtropical storm soon
I guarantee you that wont happen.
Convection wise, this storm isn't to impressive. It has been creating some pretty strong t-storms over Florida though.
Link
Floater - Visible Loop
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT
* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUCKERS CORNER...OR 19 MILES EAST
OF PUNTA GORDA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BABCOCK RANCH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
That floater is left over from the old 90L.
..go figure.
There was a 90L..?
LOL !
NexSat Visible Loop
Wouldn't be so quick to say that 23.
I continue to learn stuff from this blog everyday, even when I don't want to :)
Link
Whether its 1 major or 5 it just takes 1 numbers predicted are not of any importance.
LMAO! Good one Presslord!
Im Just a Blogger...
I'm no pro, but looks impressive to me.
Latest IR Loop
Well, I think yer pretty smart on things...:)
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