Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti
The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.
Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.
The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Saturday.
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Jeff Masters
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I think we could see a 45mph TS if things continue the way they are now.
on here,but i think your right cchs,
it surely has the look on sat,
and with the wind obs it seems like
Ana has formed. If not Ana a strong t.d.
Now i guess we just wait and see if it
will persist until officially named.
It's just a big storm that happens to have some vorticity because it's associated with a low.
closed surface low - check
persistent tstm activity near the COC - check
Not much doubt about it. The NHC will prob issue 5am advisories unless it craps out overnight.
Sorry Guys I had no idea this would even happen this close to land....
Taco :0)
Wait so you're classifying this based on how your rain is falling? Thats doesnt sound very accurate nor reasonable.
This is more convincing.
I know radar can be deceiving sometimes when trying to determine a weak coc...
If 90L had one more day over water then I'd say that there would be a chance at a moderate tropical storm. Although there just isnt enough time. Thats why a 45mph TS seems the strongest it will be able to get.
This is a tropical system since it has a closed surface circulation, warm core as illustrated by the Cyclone Phase Diagram below, and contains 30kt+ winds.
So what are your thoughts on that radar?
I'm just telling you what I know by what I am experiencing tonight 2 miles north of Destin, FL. It's not scientific, I'll agree, but I would rather trust my instincts - they've served me well since I moved here in 1994.
Everytime I hit refresh, that is the first thing that pops up haha. Awesome pic. My wife walked by and just starting laughing.
Well I am 15 miles east of Biloxi and I can tell you the rain we have had today has been that pulse rain. QUick short downpours with a short clearing for a few minutes followed by another wave. The clouds have been awesome. It goes pitch black for about five minutes then a few minutes later is sunny as if there hasnt been a cloud around all day. It is been back and forth since early this morning. Has a tropical feel outside to me.
Although I am not a big fan of those sat pics you have been posting. So many better ones out there.
**/**/**
INV/90L
MARK
28N/88W
nearly stationary or stationary
2 am EDT. 1 AM CDT.
Based upon the latest surface observations, cyclone phase analysis, and satelite imagery, its in this forecaster's opinion that Tropical Storm Ana has formed in the Northern Gulf.
And based on this forecasters opinion your right...I am going to stick my neck out and say it. Tropical Storm Ana has formed with 40-50 mph winds in the Northeastern Gulf....Although I believe it was Ana 2 or 3 hours ago.
EDT - Miami, FL
I think you might be right, would explain the buoy data. Find it hard to believe that it could get better stacked in the short time it has.
I believe that's at the midlevels at the moment with the surface center still to the south but trying to reform under the midlevel swirl.
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