Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on May 22, 2009

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The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.

The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.

The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting K8eCane:
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats the ch of it becomeing a TS beforr land fall???


Very slim


i've heard of plenty storms skip right over depression status and go straight to tropical storm once the plane got in there


Well I doubt that will be the case with 90L. 90L may even be over land by the time recon gets to it.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
NexSat View of 90L thru 23:15Z
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670. IKE
18Z GFDL takes it to 55 knots in 18 hours...

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Quoting DestinJeff:


"Get me the President on the horn, take us to HURCON 4"


I know looks like crap but just posting NHC graphics. Maybe because such a slooow mover it does develop a little.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats the ch of it becomeing a TS beforr land fall???


Very slim


i've heard of plenty storms skip right over depression status and go straight to tropical storm once the plane got in there
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Interesting.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Very slim.



so march for that happy ending
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
OK, I talked the folks out of leaving Dauphin Island and coming back to Mobile...."sigh of relief", Lots of rain huh?
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Thank you, saw the graphic after I posted.
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Quoting MsBlanch:
code orange? May I ask your area?



The code orange I refer to is the way the NHC classifies potential developing cyclones. The low in the Gulf of Mexico (90L) is now a code orange which is 30-50% chance of development.

I live in West Palm Beach, Florida by the way.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats the ch of it becomeing a TS beforr land fall???


Very slim.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
660. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Ike,The relative forward Movement has gone nill the last few hours..

Ya may get a Boatload of fetch overnight thru tomorrow


Agree...just took my 2 poodles out for relief. Wind is gusty. Light rain right now and 69.

I hear the wind blowing.
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whats the ch of it becomeing a TS beforr land fall???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
boatload of what?
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24 hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Ike,The relative forward Movement has gone nill the last few hours..

Ya may get a Boatload of fetch overnight thru tomorrow
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code orange? May I ask your area?

Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Well...looks like we got our first code orange of the season!
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Pensacola forecast:

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 69. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 80. Breezy, with a east wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Not going to be a fun day tomorrow for those in the way of the low.
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652. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoa!!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222345
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



wow!
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Pretty pictures updated :)



AOI #1

AOI #2
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650. beell
Another look at rainfall. Does not look like the end of the world yet.


Link
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Hiya PascMississippi,
NASA Home Page
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Almost DOA

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Hi Pat, where do you get those cool images from space?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoa!!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222345
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



You beat me. lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Well...looks like we got our first code orange of the season!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Are they still scheduling the HH for tomorrow?
What time? Because it looks like it will be inland by noon. Looks like it wont make it, but maybe it'll be close.

Now I'm not a blog regular or a comedian or anything on these blogs, but I'd like to say that this is my NO. 1 source of information for
any weather related event. This blog is extremely
valuable to probably many lurkers out there like me so keep up the good work.


I agree.. I used to post a little more than I do now but I am still around because I learn so much from the discussions, links, and more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoa!!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222345
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Shuttle return is delays till Sat morning - bad weather

thinking more of a cali landing instead of fl..
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Landing Targets KSC Saturday Morning
Fri, 22 May 2009 04:28:13 PM CDT


The Atlantis crew is now in its sleep period and is scheduled to wake up Saturday at 1:01 a.m. EDT. Friday’s landing opportunities at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) were waved off due to bad weather. Landing opportunities are now available at KSC and Edwards Air Force Base in California on Saturday and Sunday. The first KSC landing opportunity begins Saturday with a deorbit burn at 8:01 a.m. leading to a touchdown in Florida at 9:15 a.m.
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633.

Thanks for that image - godspeed Hubble

Shuttle return is delays till Sat morning - bad weather
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
Im betting it stays mostly right side Loaded,..always has been
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It's going to need better organization. Convection is only in 1 quadrant of the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
A look back Hubble as Atlantis Departed ..

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Slow movement does become problematic as the Upper Air environment gets better all the time.

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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 29.7N AND 88.7W
E. 23/1500Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
Are they still scheduling the HH for tomorrow?
What time? Because it looks like it will be inland by noon. Looks like it wont make it, but maybe it'll be close.

Now I'm not a blog regular or a comedian or anything on these blogs, but I'd like to say that this is my NO. 1 source of information for
any weather related event. This blog is extremely
valuable to probably many lurkers out there like me so keep up the good work. Oh yeah, and
the interesting little fights on here too. Need more of those ;)
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The center YELLOW point indicates the CoC

2km Storm Relative Imagery with BD enhancement curve

..re-loaded
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NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Ike,if ya away from the Table yet,The relative forward Movement has gone nill the last few hours..

Ya may get a Boatload of fetch overnight thru tomorrow
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Click view image for a larger image.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
Quoting Gulfsyed:
Now that the storm is gaining stregnth, does anyone think that the south west side of the storm can generate west or nw winds over 30 knots?

Not with how little time it has left. That area is in the middle of a dry slot.
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Sorry, what I thought was the COC at 100 miles south of Mobile Bay may be a seperate vortex. I think the actual CCO is much further south. Anyone?
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Now that the storm is gaining stregnth, does anyone think that the south west side of the storm can generate west or nw winds over 30 knots?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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