90L comes close to being the season's first named storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2009

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The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HCW:
Xtrap isn't a model ! 91L has no chance to even be an STD so I am not sure why this one got tagged.


Whats your reason?? Shear is low.. the only thing that could inhibit any development would be cooler water temps. Know your facts..
Shear is 5-10 knots over the storm and dry air is not in that area.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Seems as though the NHC isn't as conservative as they were last year. I remember many screaming that storms last year should be Invests and it would take days for them to issue one.

By the way, good mornin all


I think that is because both of these were close to HOME.
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90L gave the east coast great waves-yesterday 3-4' and glass until noon. But water temps are low, at Ponce it was 75, but only the first few inches felt that, as I paddled I could really feel the colder water below. So this location not quite ready for prime time yet. Of course, being 58 years old, what was once warm, is now cold!!
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new blog
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1444. HCW
Xtrap isn't a model ! 91L has no chance to even be an STD so I am not sure why this one got tagged.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't forget the hebert boxes?


Ohhh man :(

Hmm using google earth... I can put in the lat & Long... draw some lines.. save it.. and post it every time... hmmm

I wonder how long it would take to drive some people insane?
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1442. NEwxguy
Don't forget the hebert boxes?
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Quoting presslord:


I LOVE the "X-TRAP" model"...it's my favorite...'cause it's always 100% accurate...


Yup, for the few minutes that its posted :)
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Quoting weathersp:


(6) What about the XTRAP model??


I LOVE the "X-TRAP" model"...it's my favorite...'cause it's always 100% accurate...
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1439. IKE
Quoting weathersp:


(6) What about the XTRAP model??


LOL.....

(7)I wish it would keep going NW. NC needs the rain.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Tim, saw that this morning, there aren't any good losses,but that was ugly!!!!!


Playing that sport.....That loss could kill a season.....big mental breakdown and haunt you mentally a long time.
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1437. NEwxguy
Quoting Orcasystems:


You just do that because you don't want to wash the windows.


Can't get anything by you,can I!!!!
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For the lastest on 91L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



(6) What about the XTRAP model??
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Seems as though the NHC isn't as conservative as they were last year. I remember many screaming that storms last year should be Invests and it would take days for them to issue one.

By the way, good mornin all
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1433. NEwxguy
Tim, saw that this morning, there aren't any good losses,but that was ugly!!!!!
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2 invest and aint June 1 yet lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting NEwxguy:


Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.


Morining everyone.....its too early for the big one! Besides the big one occured last nite with that crushing loss by the RAYS! Holly Cow!

I seen the Low closing up last nite.
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I am back from my vacation. I guess I missed a ton of rain in Florida last week. I left and everything was brown and I come back and its all very very green. What's up in the tropics?
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Quoting NEwxguy:


Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.


You just do that because you don't want to wash the windows.
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1428. NEwxguy
Quoting vortfix:
Or..."the East coast is overdue for the Big One you know"!



Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.
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Quoting reedzone:
91L has a better chance to develop then 90L (Unnamed Tropical Storm) because wind shear with 91L is more favorable.. the only thing thats slowing it down is cooler water temps.. thats the only thing.


Its going to stay very favourable also:



Texas.. not so much
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91L has a better chance to develop then 90L (Unnamed Tropical Storm) because wind shear with 91L is more favorable.. the only thing thats slowing it down is cooler water temps.. thats the only thing.
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Blobs = Dresslord's cleavage
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Quoting IKE:
(6)Could the high build in and force it back west.

In all seriousness, it does look headed out-to-sea.

I'm more interested in the SE Texas and Mexico "blob".

Blob...from wordweb..."An indistinct shapeless form"


Blob = Presslord in a Dress
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1422. IKE
Quoting presslord:


...also...those on ships and boats ;)


LOL...yeah, I forgot that one.

LOL!
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1421. IKE
(6)Could the high build in and force it back west.

In all seriousness, it does look headed out-to-sea.

I'm more interested in the SE Texas and Mexico "blob".

Blob...from wordweb..."An indistinct shapeless form"
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Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



...also...those on ships and boats ;)
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Jeff is probably doing a fast rewrite of this mornings posting right about now :)
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Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm.

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



lmao
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1417. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Here fishee, fishee.


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....

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Quoting DestinJeff:
1st "fish" post in 5,4,3,2...


Lets say NY instead
A lot more responses that way.
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1415. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
1st "fish" post in 5,4,3,2...


Here fishee, fishee.
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AL, 91, 2009052612, , BEST, 0, 295N, 753W, 25, 1009, DB
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Good Morning Folks....Thinking it will be quiet in the tropics for next few weeks, as it should be, this early in the year (after all of the recent excitement in the Gulf)...That Bahamas area seems to have lost it's "spunk" this morning.......However, don't know if the models are looking at anything in terms of the area of convection about to leave Texas into the Gulf but shear levels are pretty high in that region right now.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm I wonder why I knew you were going to say that :)


...because great minds think alike...
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Was just going to comment, and ask about the low ~1000mb drifting east from Mexico and Texas.


Thats why I put it up.. I didn't see anyone mention it yet
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Was just going to comment, and ask about the low ~1000mb drifting east from Mexico and Texas.
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Quoting presslord:
As a matter of fact...it is never too early for rum...


Hmmm I wonder why I knew you were going to say that :)
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As a matter of fact...it is never too early for rum...
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Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting presslord:
I suspect that Masters dude will be along shortly to tell us what to think about the Bahama Blob...


Dude? Blob? kind of early for Rum isn't it?
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Hallo all!
I tend to hang out at Sully's blog,
but began here, peek in from time to time,
and am back for the season of storms.

~~~

{{ { Thinking of the people of Bangladesh this morning, after Cyclone Aila crashed ashore. } }}

~~~

1379. HadesGodWyvern

That will change soon!

~~~

Orcasystems...
Thank-you. I have bookmarked your site.


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I suspect that Masters dude will be along shortly to tell us what to think about the Bahama Blob...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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