Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2009 +2
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
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1. AstroHurricane001 5:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Hmm, GFS prediction of 90L precip for my location in S. Ontario dropped to 1.9 in (50 mm).
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2. AstroHurricane001 5:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Thanks Dr. M!
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3. nocaneindy 5:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Thanks for explaining why there was no t.d. call by nhc!
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4. CycloneBoz 5:38 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
I've been able to stablize my live webcam and remote weather station at XtremeHurricanes.com

The problem was with the GoToMyPC interface.

Everytime I disconnected, the encoder stopped running and the microphone cut out.

To solve the problem, I've set the inactivity disconnect for over 10 hours.

That should do it! :)
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5. CycloneBoz 5:38 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Thanks for the update, Doc! :)
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7. SomeRandomTexan 5:40 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
thanks doc u rock!
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8. CycloneBoz 5:44 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
from Dr. Master's blog:
While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

I actually may have a shot at that 10 meter deal when deploying the remote weather station and live webcam during a TC landfall. That's only about 30 feet...say as high as a 3-story parking structure!

That also means that the 108.3 windspeed I measured on the 3rd Floor parking structure at the Hotel Galvez when I experienced Hurricane Ike is to be believed. Nice! :)
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9. stillwaiting 5:45 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
thanks doc and have a great memorial day weekend!!!
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10. nocaneindy 5:48 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Heres a track model of 98b, (BoB depression) done by the I.M.D. QLM model. Its the 12 utc so im thinking the intensity might be different by now for when this gets close to the coast.



I.M.D. site: Link
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11. Cavin Rawlins 5:49 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Thanks for the update
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12. Cavin Rawlins 5:50 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
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13. nocaneindy 5:55 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Well N.H.C. just released last special T.W.O. for 90l.
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14. txalwaysprepared 5:58 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting CycloneBoz:


That also means that the 108.3 windspeed I measured on the 3rd Floor parking structure at the Hotel Galvez when I experienced Hurricane Ike is to be believed. Nice! :)


I believe the 108! There was a measurement taken @ Nassau Bay/Clear Lake at the Hilton @ 103. It's about 20 miles north of Galveston, so your 108 is totally believable!

Thanks 90L for sending a few showers my way. Just enoough for the yard to love!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
15. Tropicsweatherpr 5:59 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231732
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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17. EYEoftheCANE 6:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
well - things have calmed down here in Boca - for now at least.......
18. ddbweatherking 6:17 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
how long does it usually take for wunderground to update its tropical weather site. It's been like 2 days and i want to see if the depression over the BOB will become strong and what path it will take.
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19. Patrap 6:19 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting ddbweatherking:
how long does it usually take for wunderground to update its tropical weather site. It's been like 2 days and i want to see if the depression over the BOB will become strong and what path it will take.


CYCLONE WARNINGS


Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

R S M C Bulletin

Observed Track

Latest Satellite Imagery of Cyclone

Cyclone Track Prediction by QLM

Ocean State Forecast


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20. tallahasseecyclone 6:22 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
I can't believe that Tallahassee will have made it through this storm with like a half inch of rain..we just seem to stay right in between the bands.
21. nocaneindy 6:22 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting ddbweatherking:
how long does it usually take for wunderground to update its tropical weather site. It's been like 2 days and i want to see if the depression over the BOB will become strong and what path it will take.


Look at post 10, it has a link to the India Met Dep. Once there, click on cyclone page and then on cyclone warning or rsmc bulletin. Also Drak said something about models showing it blowing up in the last blog. Might be able to get link to those from him.
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22. Patrap 6:24 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
BOB 02/2009/02 Dated: 23. 05. 2009

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST



Sub: Depression over west central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.



The depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 23rd May 2009 near lat. 16.50 N and long. 88.00 E, about 470 km south-southeast of Paradip, 600 km south of Sagar Island and 650 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction and cross west Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 890 E (100 km east of Sagar Island) around 25th May 2009 evening.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm) is likely to commence over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Orissa from tomorrow, the 24th May 2009 afternoon.



Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph are likely to commence along and off West Bengal coast from tomorrow, the 24th May 2009 evening. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely to commence along and off north Orissa coasts from tomorrow, the 24th May evening.



Sea condition will be high along and off West Bengal coast and rough to very rough along and off Orissa coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.



Next bulletin will be issued at 0130 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 24th May 2009
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23. Levi32 6:24 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting ddbweatherking:
how long does it usually take for wunderground to update its tropical weather site. It's been like 2 days and i want to see if the depression over the BOB will become strong and what path it will take.


Wunderground won't usually put invests on the big map. Go to this site for current tracks and imagery.

It should be steered north by the monsoonal low over India, unfortunately right towards you in Bangladesh. It may be a formidable cyclone by the time it gets there according to the global models. It makes sense since conditions are favorable for development. We'll have to see how it organizes over the next 2 days.
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24. Levi32 6:25 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Canadian Model forecast for 98B:

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25. Levi32 6:27 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
European forecast at 72 hours:

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26. Cavin Rawlins 6:27 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Weather456, what can you tell me about the Sandals Resorts in the Carribean Sea? You should be familiar with those destinations since they're all around your neck-of-the-woods, correct, my friend?


They are very exclusive down here and cheap to foreigners. An exmaple here would be the St. Kitts Marriott Resort & The Royal Beach Casino. For more information you can visit here

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
27. nocaneindy 6:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:
Canadian Model forecast for 98B:



Man with those sst's and 2 days at least over them, lets hope a 980 pressure is the lowest we see. Also, if it makes that western jog right before landfall Bangladesh is in for it big-time! Imo.
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28. dewfree 6:37 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
you guys get excited over nothing more then a low pressure system that developed along and old boundry whitch is now simply a cut off low pressure system.extra tropical if you want to call it that . consider first all the cryteria before you make your final analisys. have a great day dew
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31. sporteguy03 6:41 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the update and have a great memorial day weekend in Michigan.
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32. futuremet 6:42 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
12Z GFS Forecast

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34. nocaneindy 6:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Was just reading the rules of the road for the blog and came across no monomania. Well i for one will admit that around 1am or so i came down with it very badly in my believe 90l was either ts or sts Ana. Will try better next time to resist that germ:)
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35. Levi32 6:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting WeatherStudent:
May one of y'all fine folks on here please provide with a doppler radar image in animated motion of Southeast Florida ASAP? Thanks in advance.


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37. BahaHurican 6:51 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
I love rain in the Bahamas. I just stepped outside about an hour ago. As I crossed the parking lot on the way to my car, it went from dry to tropical downpour - in about 30 seconds! So I drove out of the gate to get some lunch. The rainshower stopped between the gate and the main road, a distance of about 15 feet. So 15 feet behind my car, in the parking lot, it was raining cats and dogs; at my car, it was bone dry.

Freaky.
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38. Patrap 7:01 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
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39. pottery 7:02 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Good afternoon.
90L is still interesting. Looks to be wetting a lot of people before it goes away.
Severe weather all over the Globe, the past few days, with fire, flood and heatwaves.
Today at 11n 61w, Trinidad, it is 92F with 42% humidity.
Send some rain this way please. The ITCZ is nowhere to be seen........
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40. BahaHurican 7:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon.
90L is still interesting. Looks to be wetting a lot of people before it goes away.
Severe weather all over the Globe, the past few days, with fire, flood and heatwaves.
Today at 11n 61w, Trinidad, it is 92F with 42% humidity.
Send some rain this way please. The ITCZ is nowhere to be seen........
Last time I looked at ITCZ it was down near the EQUATOR . . .
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41. nocaneindy 7:07 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Anyone know how much this 90l has helped out Lake O this week?
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42. BahaHurican 7:08 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    


Looks like Suriname and Guyana will get whatever rain is going that way. . .
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43. StormSurgeon 7:10 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Hmm, GFS prediction of 90L precip for my location in S. Ontario dropped to 1.9 in (50 mm).


It started moving fast, suns already out here in Mobile.
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44. pottery 7:11 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Yeah, Baha. And it looks like it is going to stay there for a while too.
The Island is very dry. It has been a short dryseason, but intense. Last year was the same.
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45. StormSurgeon 7:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Memorial day is saved........ahhhhhh

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46. StormSurgeon 7:17 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Memorial day is saved........ahhhhhh



Crud!
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47. StormSurgeon 7:24 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Before I bail for the day, I'll say one thing...............FlickR sux!
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48. BahaHurican 7:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting pottery:
Yeah, Baha. And it looks like it is going to stay there for a while too.
The Island is very dry. It has been a short dryseason, but intense. Last year was the same.
Wonder if that low position for the ITCZ so late in the year means we may see some "different" tracks this year? If nothing else, it does seem to support the premise of fewer CV type storms.
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49. taco2me61 7:28 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Crud!


StormSurgeon just to let you know I just got back from the West end of Dauphin Island and will be downloading Pictures of the "Flooding" with no burm there could not drive down to the end of it.... I sure hope this is not things to come this season....

Taco :0)
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50. Drakoen 7:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wonder if that low position for the ITCZ so late in the year means we may see some "different" tracks this year? If nothing else, it does seem to support the premise of fewer CV type storms.


The ITCZ is very low for this time of year. Not expecting a much action in the Tropical Atlantic.
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51. BahaHurican 7:37 PM GMT on May 23, 2009    
Makes me wonder if there is some significant correlation between location of ITCZ in May and # of CV storms.

I'm watching to see how quickly these abnormal indicators iron themselves out. SSTs in the CAR are already rebounding towards summer norms. Maybe ITCZ will move north radically as we get closer to solstice.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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