Cyclone Aila kills at least 120 in India, Bangaldesh; 91L forms
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Aila brought sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph at landfall, and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to coast of eastern India and western Bangladesh. Approximately 150,000 were left homeless In India, and at least 45 people were killed, many of them in the Kolkata (Calcutta) area. Damage was heavy in the city, which is India's second largest, with a population of 7.8 million. In Bangladesh, at least 89 are dead and ten of thousands homeless. The death toll will likely go higher, as over 100 people are missing in Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.
Figure 1. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Aila began as a "monsoon depression"--a large cyclonic disturbance that formed within the advancing Southwest Monsoon. The monsoon depression filled the entire Bay of Bengal, then gradually intensified between May 23 and 25 to the threshold of Category 1 hurricane strength. Since Aila started as a monsoon depression, it was a huge storm, with an eye over 100 miles in diameter. The storm helped pull the welcome rains of the Southwest Monsoon into India and Bangladesh a week ahead of normal (Figure 2). For reasons we don't fully understand, tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are very predictable using computer models. Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech was predicting the formation of Aila ten days in advance.
Figure 2. Progress of the Southwest Monsoon over India this week was aided by Cyclone Aila. Image credit: India Meteorology Department.
Disturbance 91L forms near North Carolina
An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, has formed a few hundred miles southeast of North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur over the next 24 - 36 hours. The disturbance will track northwards towards North Carolina's Outer Banks over the next 24 - 36 hours, then get swept northeastwards out to sea. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm should bring winds of 20 - 25 mph and heavy rain to North Carolina's Cape Hatteras on Wednesday. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system on Wednesday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If you didn't notice, the picture was taken on Saturday!
Right now, I give 91L a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD or STD by Friday.
This was actually Tuesday
This one is today
still pretty sickly
It doesnt have until Friday. It'll be out to sea by then. If 91L cant develop some convection in the next 6 hours then it'll be stripped of its invest status.
.
Tropical Invest 91L
so far I'm liking this if the Atlantic 09 season is like this till New Years I'll take it =)
I agree I extremely doubt 91L is going to do anything (by that I mean is it even going to soak down the outerbanks like 90L did for Mississipi, Louisana, Alabama, and Florida?)
The Hurricane season has not even yet officially started and we usually do not see our first named storm until mid to late June.
Do not base on what has happened so far as an expectation for the rest of the year.
North Korea not bound by 1953 truce
What did u expect its still May and its not very favorable for developement right now
xtrap means nothing right now it is expected to curve out to sea
Link
Sickly...........
WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy
NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does
Also the fact that a cat1 cyclone can cause so many deaths shows you the people live in a flat area and have no advanced warning and/or places to shelter, i.e. its a 3rd world county.
ok then "MY BAD" just rememmber it starts in the NHC and it ends with the NHC.
I know what you said and yes, I can read.
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
AOI #1
AOI #2
Not true.
From the 2009 National Hurricane Operations Plan:
2.3. DOD Responsibilities. The DOD will:
Initiate, monitor, and update satellite invest areas on the tropical cyclone satellite websites provided by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey, California. TPC/NHC and CPHC will coordinate with JTWC on the initiation of desired invest areas and will provide JTWC numbers for invest areas as required.
Navy's responsibility is to provide the satellite data, NHC initiates the invest.
The majority of model forecasts are statistacal & don't look at the heat & the depth that runs in the water. Scroll over T-depth anomily here.
The lesser numbered dynamical models that take all the observations into consideration are screaming El NiNo comith.
This past week we also hit the +.5 threashold. 6 more weeks folling this trend & we are in an offical El Nino. Good chance July's monthly (I think the 9th) will declare we are in offical El Nino.
I didn't.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009
CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
Did you ever look at their website?
The system has been stable all day long with only a small and expected hiccup early on this morning.
Since then, we've had uninterrupted streaming of live video with amazing frame rates [29.97 max - 29.89 avg.]
It has been a pleasure putting this system together for you all.
When it fires back up, it will be in an area projected for a hurricane landfall.
CycloneOz---
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