Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting cchsweatherman:
By the way, in viewing this visible satellite loop, you can clearly see the mid-level spin that I have been observing all morning and now early afternoon. With this existing in the mid-levels, no tropical development can occur at this time. But it could work its way down to the surface in a couple days if it persists and interacts with the tropical wave.

i think this is under to much shear to develop into anything, and if it does develop into anything (probably in about 48-96 hours) it will be quickly destroyed.

Low level winds -1500 UTC

Quoting cchsweatherman:
By the way, in viewing this visible satellite loop, you can clearly see the mid-level spin that I have been observing all morning and now early afternoon. With this existing in the mid-levels, no tropical development can occur at this time. But it could work its way down to the surface in a couple days if it persists and interacts with the tropical wave.

CCHS your a nice guy and everything..but there been mid-upperlevel lows over Nicaragua and the Western Carribean for a few days now.. Most blow ups of convection produce a mid-level vortex which will then die out in 18hrs or so. There have been like 4-5 now so far in the past 3 days!Just like the 1 you saw the other night that you thought was @ the surface.

Quoting IKE:


LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE....

ROFLMAO I think the wisc guys are playing a joke on us... those lines near the lesser antilles are rather... suggestive. Almost NC-17.

Quoting Weather456:
Low level winds -1500 UTC

on the QuikSCAT you can clearly see with the AOI in the Caribbean that there is so LLC and right now winds at the surface are not exceeding 17mph.

Surface showing trough offshore SE USA

Quoting scottsvb:


CCHS your a nice guy and everything..but there been mid-upperlevel lows over Nicaragua and the Western Carribean for a few days now.. Most blow ups of convection produce a mid-level vortex which will then die out in 18hrs or so. There have been like 4-5 now so far in the past 3 days!Just like the 1 you saw the other night that you thought was @ the surface.

yesterday there was a mid level spin in the morning and then it went back to the upper levels. Now its at the mid levels and will probably get to the lower levels in about 72 hours or maybe less( doubt it that it will ever make it to the lower levels, though.)

Quoting Vortex95:
2009 is already well ahead of 2004. 2009 had an offseason TD, 2004, nada until July 31.

I would not say "well ahead" because 1 depression so far isn't significant compared to 2004. Ana could easily form August and we would not be any better off than 04.

the blob extending from South Carolina to Central Florida should be watched for the next 96 hours to see if anything develops.

Quoting Weather456:


I would not say "well ahead" because 1 depression so far isn't significant compared to 2004. Ana could easily form August and we would not be any better off than 04.

true

Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update

can i ask you a random question?

Quoting canesrule1:
can i ask you a random question?

shoot

what car do you drive?

Quoting Vortex95:
unfriendly you got mail.

what?

Quoting canesrule1:
what car do you drive?

I don't have a DL as yet. It's on the to-do list though.

Afternoon; working all morning and just got back from lunch.....Any thoughts on that little blob of convection that has developed just off the coast of GA/SC?.....Looks a little detached from the trof over the past few hours...

Quoting Weather456:


I don't have a DL as yet. It's on the to-do list though.

What are you planning to get?

Quoting Weather456:


I don't have a DL as yet. It's on the to-do list though.

If I has one it would be a ford mid-size sedan. That is the one my eyes for when I get my DL.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Afternoon; working all morning and just got back from lunch.....Any thoughts on that little blob of convection that has developed just off the coast of GA/SC?.....Looks a little detached from the trof over the past few hours...

yea, nothing important right now, just keep your eyes on it for the next 96 hours to see if there is any development.

not a mid level spin,its the combination of WNW moving low clouds and the the shear moving the clouds NE in the UL,presenting the apperance of a mid level circ,which IMO is not there...

Quoting Weather456:


If I has one it would be a ford mid-size sedan. That is the one my eyes for when I get my DL.

cool! I have a Mercedes.

Quoting stillwaiting:
not a mid level spin,its the combination of WNW moving low clouds and the the shear moving the clouds NE in the UL,presenting the apperance of a mid level circ,which IMO is not there...

that might be so, if you are right you can say good bye to this AOI

QuikSCAT from 11:00UTC this morning. You can see the gradual wind shift associated with the tropical wave which was along 72W in this image.

Quoting canesrule1:
yea, nothing important right now, just keep your eyes on it for the next 96 hours to see if there is any development.

Thanks...Just caught my eye as it was not there this am and it is sitting over the Gulf Stream in a pocket of low shear...Needs some persistence for about 24-48 hours as usual, and, not forecasted in any of the models to my knowledge......You never know; it could be gone by later this evening...

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks...Just caught my eye as it was not there this am and it is sitting over the Gulf Stream in a pocket of low shear...Needs some persistence for about 24-48 hours as usual, and, not forecasted in any of the models to my knowledge......You never know; it could be gone by later this evening...

hit or miss right now, i'm not forecasting any development for either of these AOI

i see a mid level spin in the area in the Caribbean but it is getting sheared so badly it will probably dissipate in the next 24 hours, imo.

the blog is dead!!!

Quoting scottsvb:
With a developing ridge with alot of dry air in the GOM this week and into the weekend..the mid-level and surface trough-low will enter a region of higher shear and dry air coming down from the GOM..this dry air and rising pressures in the carribean from also a ridge building in from the eastern Carribean will null this from really forming. There is still a small window if it gets north of Cuba near the bahamas by the weekend..but right now models arent showing this. I would though look around the bahamas next week or next weekend..maybe from this or something else.

I still would keep this in mind..(from last night) look around the bahamas ..maybe from a low cut off from a front..aka now GFS 168hrs..but you all know I hate looking more than 3 days.

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WB 349 CALAMITY PREDICTION CENTER JUPITER, FL
1:03 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH 349 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:03 PM EST WED JUN 10 2009 FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS - DR. MASTERS WUNDERBLOG.

AT 1:03 PM EST CAREFUL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BICKERING, BRIEF BUT HEAVY WISHCASTING AND FREQUENT DOWNCASTING. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AND POSSIBLY 24HR BANS FOR THE EFFECTED PARTIES. SHOULD YOUR NERVES BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE BICKERING, PLEASE GO OUTSIDE AND ENJOY YOURSELF AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE BICKERING PASSES.

nice spin near 15/83

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SEVERE BICKERING WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WB 349 CALAMITY PREDICTION CENTER JUPITER, FL
1:03 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH 349 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:03 PM EST WED JUN 10 2009 FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS - DR. MASTERS WUNDERBLOG.

AT 1:03 PM EST CAREFUL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BICKERING, BRIEF BUT HEAVY WISHCASTING AND FREQUENT DOWNCASTING. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AND POSSIBLY 24HR BANS FOR THE EFFECTED PARTIES. SHOULD YOUR NERVES BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE BICKERING, PLEASE GO OUTSIDE AND ENJOY YOURSELF AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE BICKERING PASSES.

LMAO!!!

Quoting stormpetrol:


nice spin near 15/83

Mid levels

is the blob off the ga coast nudging to the south at this hour ?

Afternoon all! The blob! The blob!

Funny one CaneWhisperer!

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SEVERE BICKERING WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WB 349 CALAMITY PREDICTION CENTER JUPITER, FL
1:03 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH 349 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:03 PM EST WED JUN 10 2009 FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS - DR. MASTERS WUNDERBLOG.

AT 1:03 PM EST CAREFUL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BICKERING, BRIEF BUT HEAVY WISHCASTING AND FREQUENT DOWNCASTING. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AND POSSIBLY 24HR BANS FOR THE EFFECTED PARTIES. SHOULD YOUR NERVES BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE BICKERING, PLEASE GO OUTSIDE AND ENJOY YOURSELF AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE BICKERING PASSES.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting 7544:
is the blob off the ga coast nudging to the south at this hour ?

i believe it is stationary.

Quoting canesrule1:
i believe it is stationary.

thanks cane

Quoting 7544:
is the blob off the ga coast nudging to the south at this hour ?

Not particularly but starting to lose it's earlier "elongation" as it slowly detaches from the trof...Just kind of sitting there right now figuring out whether "Do I Stay or Should I Go?" kind of mode...

Quoting P451:


So is that the kicker that was expected to enhance the disturbance?

Does anyone really believe it will other than force a little more blob watching?

I'm just not convinced given the environment we're watching. It seems too hostile to me.

For the moment yes it's hostile but it will be becoming increasingly favorable during the next 4-8 days.

From my blog:



Figure 1. Notice the consolidated area of convection in the eastern Pacific around 100W. That's symbolizing the MJO pulse moving over, and now we notice that convection is becoming a little more consolidated in the SW Caribbean, and we may get a more organized Panamanian Low that can drift north and interact with the tropical wave coming in from the east. This area won't be able to develop for 3-5 days but it should be watched to see if it wants to be a trouble-maker.

Quoting canesrule1:
Mid levels

Even in the mid levels, this rotation is more impressive and better defined than the previous "blob". I doubt it will amount to anymore but one never really knows for sure.

A little laughter is good for the soul.

Thanks :-)

blog is moving kinda slow today... I have been just lurking the past couple of days...

Quoting stormpetrol:

Even in the mid levels, this rotation is more impressive and better defined than the previous "blob". I doubt it will amount to anymore but one never really knows for sure.

that is true, I'm giving it a 50% of having a 30% chance of developing.