Sea level rise: what has happened so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 10, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Sea level has been rising globally since the late 1700s. This rise has accelerated in recent decades, thanks to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to a warmer climate, plus the fact that warmer oceans are less dense and expand, further increasing sea level. Though sea level rise appears to have slowed over the past five years, it will significantly accelerate if the climate warms the 2 - 3°C it is expected to this century. If these forecasts of a warmer world prove accurate, higher sea levels will be a formidable challenge for millions of people world-wide during the last half of this century. Sea level rise represents one of my personal top two climate change concerns (drought is the other). I'll present a series of blog posts over the coming months focusing on at-risk areas in the U.S., Caribbean, and world-wide. Today, I focus on the observed sea level rise since the Ice Age.

What's at stake
Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. About 44% of the Earth's 6.7 billion people live within 150 km (93 miles) of the coast, and 600 million people live at an elevation less than ten meters (33 feet). Eight of the ten largest cities in the world are sited on the ocean coast. In the U.S., the coastal population has doubled over the past 50 years. Fourteen of the twenty largest urban centers are located within 100 km of the coast, and are less than ten meters above sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007). The population of many vulnerable coastal regions are expected to double by 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Sea level rise since the Ice Age
Before the most recent Ice Age, sea level was about 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present. Then, during the Ice Age, sea level dropped 120 meters (395 ft) as water evaporated from the oceans precipitated out onto the great land-based ice sheets. The former ocean water remained frozen in those ice sheets during the Ice Age, but began being released 12,000 - 15,000 years ago as the Ice Age ended and the climate warmed. Sea level increased about 115 meters over a several thousand year period, rising 40 mm/year (1.6"/yr) during one 500-year pulse of melting 14,600 years ago. The rate of sea level rise slowed to 11 mm/year (0.43"/yr) during the period 7,000 - 14,000 years ago (Bard et al., 1996), then further slowed to 0.5 mm/yr 6,000 - 3,000 years ago. About 2,000 - 3,000 years ago, the sea level stopped rising, and remained fairly steady until the late 1700s (IPCC 2007). One exception to this occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present (Grinsted et al., 2008). This was probably the highest the sea has been since the beginning of the Ice Age, 110,000 years ago. There is a fair bit of uncertainty in all these estimates, since we don't have direct measurements of the sea level.


Figure 1. Global sea level from 200 A.D. to 2000, as reconstructed from proxy records of sea level by Moberg et al. 2005. The thick black line is reconstructed sea level using tide gauges (Jevrejeva, 2006). The lightest gray shading shows the 5 - 95% uncertainty in the estimates, and the medium gray shading denotes the one standard deviation error estimate. The highest global sea level of the past 110,000 years likely occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present. Image credit: Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Sea level rise over the past 300 years
Direct measurements of sea level using tide gauges began in Amsterdam in 1700. Additional tide gauges began recording data in Liverpool, England in 1768 and in Stockholm, Sweden in 1774. These gauges suggest that a steady acceleration of sea rise of 0.01 mm per year squared began in the late 1700s, resulting in a rise in sea level of 2.4" (6 cm, 0.6 mm/yr) during the 19th century and 7.5" (19 cm, 1.9 mm/yr) during the 20th century (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). There is considerable uncertainty in just how much sea level rise has occurred over the past few centuries, though. Measuring global average sea level rise is a very tricky business. For starters, one must account for the tides, which depend on the positions of the Earth and Moon on a cycle that repeats itself once every 18.6 years. Tide gauges are scattered, with varying lengths of record. The data must be corrected since land is sinking in some regions, due to pumping of ground water, oil and gas extraction, and natural compaction of sediments. Also, the land is rising in other regions, such as Northern Europe, where it is rebounding from the lost weight of the melted glaciers that covered the region during the last Ice Age. Ocean currents, precipitation, and evaporation can cause a 20 inch (50 cm) difference in sea level in different portions of the ocean. As a result of all this uncertainty, the 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave a range of 4 - 10" (10 - 25 cm) for the observed sea level rise of the 20th century. The 2007 IPCC report narrowed this range a bit, to 5 - 9" (12 - 22 cm), or 1.2 - 2.2 mm/year. Rates of sea level rise are much higher in many regions. In the U.S., the highest rates of sea-level rise are along the Mississippi Delta region--over 10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years (USGS, 2006). This large relative rise is due, in large part, to the fact that the land is sinking.


Figure 2. Absolute sea level rise between 1955 and 2003 as computed from tide gauges and satellite imagery data. The data has been corrected for the rising or sinking of land due to crustal motions or subsidence of the land, so the relative sea level rise along the coast will be different than this. The total rise (in inches) for the 48-year period is given in the top scale, and the rate in mm/year is given in the bottom scale. The regional sea level variations shown here resulted not only from the input of additional water from melting of glaciers and ice caps, but also from changes in ocean temperature and density, as well as changes in precipitation, ocean currents, and river discharge. Image credit: IPCC, 2007

Sea level rise over the past 15 years
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, sea level accelerated from the 1.2 - 2.2 mm/yr observed during the 20th century to 3.1 mm/year during the period 1993 - 2003. These estimates come from high resolution measurements from satellite radar altimeters, which began in 1992. Tide gauges showed a similar level of sea level rise during that ten-year period. The IPCC attributed more than half of this rise (1.6 mm/yr) to the fact that the ocean expanded in size due to increased temperatures. Another 1.2 mm/yr rise came from melting of Greenland, West Antarctica, and other land-based ice, and about 10% of the rise was unaccounted for. However, during the period 2003 - 2008, sea level rise slowed to 2.5 mm/year, according to measurements of Earth's gravity from the GRACE satellites (Cazenave et al., 2008). This reduction in sea level rise probably occurred because ocean sea surface temperatures have not warmed since 2003 (Figure 3). The authors concluded that sea level rise due to ocean warming decreased more than a factor of five from 2003 - 2008, compared to 1993 - 2003, contributing only 0.3 mm/yr vs. the 1.6 mm/yr previously.


Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

For more information
The best source of information I found while compiling my sea level pages was the Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region report by the U.S. Climate Science Program. It has a huge number of references to all the latest science being done on sea level rise.

References
Bard, E., et al., 1996, "Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge", Nature 382, pp241-244, doi:10.1038/382241a0.

Cazenave et al., 2008, "Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from satellite altimetry and Argo", Global and Planetary Change, 2008; DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.004

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Moberg, A., et al., 2005, "Highly variable northern hemisphere temperature reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data", Nature 433, pp613-617, doi:10.1038/nature03265.

United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2006, National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-179.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and the only region worth watching is the Western Caribbean, which could see formation of a tropical disturbance with heavy thunderstorm activity this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 432 - 382

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index


Credit: NASA



NASA LRO Story



Last summer, over one million people submitted their names to be included on a microchip to be blasted off to the moon via NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. In preparation for LRO's launch on June 16th, engineers are shown here with the microchip encased in a radiation hardened container and attached to the back of the propulsion module access panel.


Image: Technicians completed connections between the LRO and LCROSS spacecraft and the Atlas V rocket at Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis


LRO/LCROSS Launch Moves Forward

The launch and mission teams for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Spacecraft missions met on Wednesday in Florida for the Flight Readiness Review, or FRR.

The teams announced that there are no major issues or concerns to hamper launch at this time.

Final spacecraft closeouts are underway at the launch pad and countdown dress rehearsal activities are planned for all day Thursday.

A Launch Readiness Review, or LRR, is scheduled for Monday at 9 a.m. EDT. A prelaunch news conference will be held after the LRR and is planned for 1 p.m. EDT. The briefing will be broadcast live from the news center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center on NASA TV.

Liftoff currently is scheduled for June 17 at 3:51 p.m. EDT. There are two more launch opportunities that day at 4:01 p.m. and 4:11 p.m.

Mission Overview
Both probes will fly to the moon atop the same Atlas V rocket, although they will use vastly different methods to study the lunar environment. The LRO will go into orbit around the moon, turning its suite of instruments towards the moon for thorough studies. The spacecraft also will be looking for potential landing sites for astronauts. The LCROSS, on the other hand, will guide an empty upper stage on a collision course with a permanently shaded crater in an effort to kick up evidence of water at the moon's poles. LCROSS itself will also impact the lunar surface during its course of study.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
As I said before I am a 0% or 100% chance forecaster so I look at an area and make a call.

As for South Texas, yes you are towards the western part of the high but if you live near the coast you will still get a sea breeze inthe afternoon (good temp contrast from land and sea) but that High is capping everything right now. Even your popcorn CU are flat haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
My opinion nothing TS wise forms until last week of June at the earliest. Just my opinion looking at current conditions and trends of the models based on current data.


Where??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


No 91E very likely to become a TD at the next advisory time...nice organization.


Well hopefully this time tomorrow we will have TD-02 in the Carribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

you wouldn't belive the rain we've seen in Jamaica. Plus a flash flood watch


Oh I'll bet...doesnt look like your fortunes are gonna improve in the near term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:

Doesn't all like a Tropical Depression...jus needs more time lyke 12-24 hours and then maybe TD state


No 91E very likely to become a TD at the next advisory time...nice organization.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Cyclone Anniversaries (Atlantic)

June 13, 2006 - Tropical Storm Alberto (pictured) made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm. Alberto brought heavy rain to the southeastern United States, causing about $500,000 in damage.

June 11, 2005 - Tropical Storm Arlene (pictured) made landfall on the Florida Panhandle causing about $12 million of damage throughout the eastern United States.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
From the HPC

THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA.
IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.

you wouldn't belive the rain we've seen in Jamaica. Plus a flash flood watch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:

looks pretty good
I'd say a TD

Doesn't all like a Tropical Depression...jus needs more time lyke 12-24 hours and then maybe TD state
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My opinion nothing TS wise forms until last week of June at the earliest. Just my opinion looking at current conditions and trends of the models based on current data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the HPC

THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA.
IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
421. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Bahama screamer ring a bell?


LOL...yeah.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....


Bahama screamer ring a bell?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
419. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Ike - its the remnants of Karen!


LOL.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Ike - its the remnants of Karen!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting jeffs713:

Levi,

Where do you see the eastward motion at the low levels? I see the rotation fairly strongly going North through WSW, but nothing going east.


A few of the low-level clouds at 81W 11N are stalling and drifting ESE, but I said low-level turning....that doesn't mean I'm calling it a closed low. It just means there is a cyclonic curvature of the surface wind field in association with the low.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
416. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hot here too. SE TX And we do have a south wind.

87*F
Feels Like 93*F
Humidity 61%
Wind S@13
Gusting to 21mph
Dew point 72

With that south wind I'm assuming we are at the western edge of the high???
And if the local NWS is correct that high will be sliding east in a few days. So wouldnt that put someone in the U.S. in the path if anything forms? But that about the high going east doesn't seem to gel with whats been said on the blog today. Or with what the NWS N.O. said either. Oh well not the first time I've been confused. Lol.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009


.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ANCHORED OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE RIDGE
WILL OSCILLATE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE STATE. HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SO THINK TEMPS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WET WARM AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND NAM 12 SURFACE FIELDS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OVER 100
DEGREES FRI/SAT BUT JUST CAN`T QUITE PULL THE TRIGGER ON SUCH WARM
TEMPS SO WILL TRIM A FEW DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD EXCEED 108 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DAY TO DAY CHANGE...ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL DECIDING
WHETHER TO MENTION A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS VERY LIMITED SO WILL PROBABLY LEAVE OUT.
LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONTINUED
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE SO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF
TO PUSH IN TO TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
STRONG RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i love all of y'alls love for weather but sometimes this blog is as exciting as predicting every single pitch (usually on average about 250 or so a game) of every game (162 a season) of a baseball season. But then again baseball always is better to watch after the all-star break.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Just watch...I see how most on here are hardcore model forecasters. No one seems to VIV them. You got to look at what is in front of you. Look at the conditions upstream. How many times do the models change? Esspecially 5 or 6 days out?


I agree, not saying something will happen but an area to just watch as even the TPC gives it a moderate chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Just watch...I see how most on here are hardcore model forecasters. No one seems to VIV them. You got to look at what is in front of you. Look at the conditions upstream. How many times do the models change? Esspecially 5 or 6 days out?

What are the conditions upstream?
Member Since: June 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

looks pretty good
I'd say a TD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
You are chasing another ghost storm. Ok so there may be some t-storms down by the Yuc but nothing will blow up. the models are off. You have to look at what is upstream currently. They are not VIVing that well.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
As long as that High is in place, we are getting nothing in the Gulf anytime soon. We can not even get dang sea breeze t-storms to setup. It is hot and miserable in Southern Miss. I would do anything for a thunderstorm to cool things off a bit. The dewpoint even got over 70 today and not even one cloud in the sky.


Hot here too. SE TX And we do have a south wind.

87*F
Feels Like 93*F
Humidity 61%
Wind S@13
Gusting to 21mph
Dew point 72

With that south wind I'm assuming we are at the western edge of the high???
And if the local NWS is correct that high will be sliding east in a few days. So wouldnt that put someone in the U.S. in the path if anything forms? But that about the high going east doesn't seem to gel with whats been said on the blog today. Or with what the NWS N.O. said either. Oh well not the first time I've been confused. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level turning in the southern Caribbean is becoming apparent on visible loops.

Haboob - I for one am not a slave to the models. I use them as tools to provide me with possible solutions and valuable insite, and then I analyze how likely they are to come true. And though I refuse to be lead by the hand by a computer, it always helps to have them agree with you, especially in numbers.

Levi,

Where do you see the eastward motion at the low levels? I see the rotation fairly strongly going North through WSW, but nothing going east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Looks like the ITCZ is finally lifting further north. The tropical wave along 83W was I believe the first one to really amplify into the Caribbean and not stay over South America.


It has shifted northward somewhat in response to the weakening of the NAO phase. Brazil had enough of the ITCZ, while Suriname, Guyana, T&T have been drier than normal further north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level turning in the southern Caribbean is becoming apparent on visible loops.

Haboob - I for one am not a slave to the models. I use them as tools to provide me with possible solutions and valuable insite, and then I analyze how likely they are to come true. And though I refuse to be lead by the hand by a computer, it always helps to have them agree with you, especially in numbers.

I know not everyone on here just relies on models but some do. It is ok to look at the models and analize the situation but a lot of folks apear to just look at position and not the small details. Look upstream, are the pressure of the high matching? How about the wind speeds? How about the Isodrosotherms? Just seems people dont VIV the models. They take them for what they are. They post the 48hr panel and say look in two days we are going to get hit when in reality the model may be accurate that something will happen but timing and intensity is way off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
407. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level turning in the southern Caribbean is becoming apparent on visible loops.

Haboob - I for one am not a slave to the models. I use them as tools to provide me with possible solutions and valuable insite, and then I analyze how likely they are to come true. And though I refuse to be lead by the hand by a computer, it always helps to have them agree with you, especially in numbers.


That's a good satellite. It shows the shear blowing the higher clouds NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that one of the most useless types of posts are those that say it will "do" anything. No one has the inside pass, so its better to post your opinion in a respectful manner (i.e. W456, StormW), then to make a major declaration.

Kman was on to something about the anonymity on blogs. Its a lot easier to be disrespectful when no one knows who you are.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting Weather456:
Based on an array of data but TPW and 650 mb winds, the most helpful.



Looks like the ITCZ is finally lifting a little further north. The tropical wave along 83W was I believe the first one to really amplify into the Caribbean and not stay over South America.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
# Daniel Swain Says:
June 10th, 2009 at 1:43 pm

And…the arctic sea ice has now reached its lowest extent ever for the date, and the rate of decrease is also far higher than average for the date. Despite a cold winter, we are on track to surpass the previous all-time summer sea ice minimum set all the way back in…2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Low-level turning in the southern Caribbean is becoming apparent on visible loops.

Haboob - I for one am not a slave to the models. I use them as tools to provide me with possible solutions and valuable insite, and then I analyze how likely they are to come true. And though I refuse to be lead by the hand by a computer, it always helps to have them agree with you, especially in numbers.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
Of course it will go WNW this so called low. Yes there will t storms but nothing get get worked up over. Just some rain and a some lightning. With the position of the High and how strong it is at the moment, the only way it can go is WNW. So Srn texas might get some rain in a few days. Whoopie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Based on an array of data but TPW and 650 mb winds, the most helpful.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


You don't know that, more models are developing it, it is an area to watch at the very least.

Just watch...I see how most on here are hardcore model forecasters. No one seems to VIV them. You got to look at what is in front of you. Look at the conditions upstream. How many times do the models change? Esspecially 5 or 6 days out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, I think if it's weak it will go on a WNW track towards the Yucutan and then the BOC. Similar to Arthur from last year in my opinion.

The other possibility (not as likely but who knows) is it will take a more northerly track into Cuba and then the eastern GOM, Florida, or the Bahamas. Similar to Ernesto from 2006.

But right now I'm still not even sure we'll get a tropical cyclone even though it's looking more likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
You are chasing another ghost storm. Ok so there may be some t-storms down by the Yuc but nothing will blow up. the models are off. You have to look at what is upstream currently. They are not VIVing that well.


You don't know that, more models are developing it, it is an area to watch at the very least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:


Those of us here in northern New Mexico must be hogging all the comfortable weather!

In a word, the climate here today is "fabulous!"




Yes, it hit 90 today with dew point pushing 72. Horrible running weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You are chasing another ghost storm. Ok so there may be some t-storms down by the Yuc but nothing will blow up. the models are off. You have to look at what is upstream currently. They are not VIVing that well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Today at 12Z



Yesterday at 12Z



Oooooo....a growing consensus!

456, you and some others on here have been talking this kind of smack all afternoon...and then here it is.

[/me bows...] I am not worthy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
As long as that High is in place, we are getting nothing in the Gulf anytime soon. We can not even get dang sea breeze t-storms to setup. It is hot and miserable in Southern Miss. I would do anything for a thunderstorm to cool things off a bit. The dewpoint even got over 70 today and not even one cloud in the sky.


Those of us here in northern New Mexico must be hogging all the comfortable weather!

In a word, the climate here today is "fabulous!"


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
393. IKE
I think the most likely path is WNW. If this system gets strong enough it might get turned north in a slight weakness in the eastern GOM, before a massive high builds back in. Odds are it stays on a WNW path.

IF something forms, which seems more likely by the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today at 12Z



Yesterday at 12Z

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As long as that High is in place, we are getting nothing in the Gulf anytime soon. We can not even get dang sea breeze t-storms to setup. It is hot and miserable in Southern Miss. I would do anything for a thunderstorm to cool things off a bit. The dewpoint even got over 70 today and not even one cloud in the sky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS slams a nice vort into the Yucatan peninsula.


It would seem model consensus continues to materialize. The NOGAPS has the right idea on track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
Quoting atmoaggie:
Match those with the 200 mb winds, the GFS remains unreasonable.

Not that I disagree with the analysis, you two, I just don't like NAM for the job of tropical forecasting...


Neither do I, thats why I'm stressing more on the GFS relative to the ECMWF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


I can never beat this


LOL...thanks for the plug.

It remains to be seen if I can ever beat it, too! :)

Best wishes on your work. I can guarantee you'll have an audience here. Curiosity rules! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
The NAM at 48 hours has the low east of Nicaragua

My opinion only, but I have no faith in the NAM with anything south of latitude 25 N.

OK, I never trust it with anything over water, either, but you get the point.


Yeah I know everyone hates the NAM....it's not meant for the tropics, but it has been very good at handling the upper trough the last few days, and is beating the heck out of the GFS with the surface forecast. The fact that it's a high-resolution model has probably helped a lot in this pattern. So.....credit where it's due lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
Match those with the 200 mb winds, the GFS remains unreasonable.

Not that I disagree with the analysis, you two, I just don't like NAM for the job of tropical forecasting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Match those with the 200 mb winds, the GFS remains unreasonable.


Exactly.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
18z GFS at 108 hours showing the cut-off upper low backing away to the SW over Mexico, ventilating the system as upper ridging takes over.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
The NAM at 48 hours has the low east of Nicaragua

My opinion only, but I have no faith in the NAM with anything south of latitude 25 N.

OK, I never trust it with anything over water, either, but you get the point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 432 - 382

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
35 °F
Overcast