Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Sure feels kind of soupy out there - VERY tropical feeling outside, little bands of wind going on...nothing off our coast though. Just WIERD.
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Since this storm is a dud, you may like to check out the tornado that went through my little village on Thursday June 25th. It took the roof of a barn and destroyed 1 house.
Check out my videos on You Tube called "Avon F2 Tornado" and "Avon Tornado" submitted by tylander4 (thats me). Some awesome extreme weather caught live by surprise!
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Look at that area of convection next to Florida!!! Damn!!!
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30% chance for development now, shear has not subsided in the eastern GOM as it was supposed to, so I have lowered it's chances for development.
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I could be wrong but looks to me like 93L is being pushed WSW/SW toward the Belize area.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Doubt it....its next to Africa. :P
Sorry, I quoted the wron blog entry. I meant the one that dove off the Carolinas last night. I was planning on walking the beaches later to slam some of the big snook that have been cruising the beaches.
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Interesting area off Florida. Want to watch for persistance.
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Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
So is there still any chance that 93L will become a TD?
NHC=lesss than 30% chance.
Rob Carver=dissipating in a few days under the influence of a stron trough. Like the girl says to Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber "more like on in a million" and he says "Yes!!!! So you're saying there's a chance" That's pretty much the scenario, always a chance.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Today's going to be a slow blog..
I think we should look off Florida.


If you look closely at it, you can kinda see a spin.
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Quoting OnTheFlats:
Hey WPB, Deerfield Beach here. Is that blob going to affect us today? It looks quite ominous.


Doubt it....its next to Africa. :P
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
15. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


From Weather456's blog:
East Atlantic

Most of the global models continue to forecast the development of a tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic by Monday. Currently there are no organized wave systems in the vicinity but a couple of wave axes evident. Any feature forming out here would move due west under persistent deep later flow south of the ridge. The models quickly develop the wave but weaken it in the Central Atlantic due to cooler waters. Most models decrease shear enough to allow development but I don’t know how a wave would survive a climatologically unfavourable area. I will continue to monitor this area.



Well last week the GFS was the outlier in consistently forcasting that a strong low/tropical cyclone would have been near 8n 40w by today and then reaching the islands by Wednesday/Thursday. There's nothing at all at that location.
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So is there still any chance that 93L will become a TD?
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
East Atlantic Satellite
Hey WPB, Deerfield Beach here. Is that blob going to affect us today? It looks quite ominous.
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12. SLU
456 ..

I'm awaiting your July outlook. I suspect it will be just as quiet as June or we may just get one or two "weak" systems but nothing like last year. This season could very well fall into line with climatology with most of the activity taking place between August 15th and September 30th with an early end to the season likely.
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Quoting SLU:
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a very limited chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf. So much for our "possible tropical cyclone"

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.


From Weather456's blog:
East Atlantic

Most of the global models continue to forecast the development of a tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic by Monday. Currently there are no organized wave systems in the vicinity but a couple of wave axes evident. Any feature forming out here would move due west under persistent deep later flow south of the ridge. The models quickly develop the wave but weaken it in the Central Atlantic due to cooler waters. Most models decrease shear enough to allow development but I don’t know how a wave would survive a climatologically unfavourable area. I will continue to monitor this area.
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10. SLU
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a very limited chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf. So much for our "possible tropical cyclone"

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.
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Time for the morning convection burst.
Prepare for rapid dissipation this afternoon...again.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Today's going to be a slow blog..
I think we should look off Florida.


agree its been there from 2am today but is moving south ?
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Latest run on the CMC is showing 40+ inches of rain over Florida for the cycle. Regardless of 93L's development or lack of... I think you are going to get your rain Ike. The other models are showing 15-20 inch accumulation. That should get your dirt growing ;).
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Today's going to be a slow blog..
I think we should look off Florida.
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Good Morning

Tropical Invest 93L over Yucatan
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Made it across the road safely!

Much ado-doo abouot nothing, probbally 2600 posts of ado-dooo.
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East Atlantic Satellite
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Nada
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Good morning and thank you for the update.

Could you or someone on this list please direct me to the historical storm map that wunderground used to show on the invest/storm page?

I'd appreciate it!

Thanks,
John
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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