Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Can somebody confirm that the CMC's algorithm has been "toned down" to produce less cyclones?

Quoting heliluv2trac:
will whatever is left of 97L make it into the GOM

If it can survive that long, it's possible, though some models are saying it will side swipe the east coast.

Quoting futuremet:
CMC 12Z is picking up this system

Eeeeeewwwww.....

485. weatherwatcher12 1:05 PM AST on July 20, 2009

Remember that was the main argument yesterday, but monitoring how quickly the ULL continues to pull north, could make a major difference between nothing and possible developing system in the Caribbean. I still would like this feature to get farther away for ideal conditions. Shear tendency charts isn't really helping since they are basically either changing every minute or not changing much at all.

Quoting heliluv2trac:
will whatever is left of 97L make it into the GOM

Almost anything is possible, however it's doubtful with this system. Esp if it encounters very high shear.

Quoting Weather456:
485. weatherwatcher12 1:05 PM AST on July 20, 2009

Remember that was the main argument yesterday, but monitoring how quickly the ULL continues to pull north, could make a major difference between nothing and possible developing system in the Caribbean. I still would like this feature to get farther away for ideal conditions. Shear tendency charts isn't really helping since they are basically either changing every minute or not changing much at all.

Thanks. I also believe the shear maps capture the shear at that specific point in time. It doesn't show us a continuous stream of data.

one model had it hitting La

convective tops are warming now convection should wane shortly

Quoting presslord:



Eeeeeewwwww.....

Yuck, that's ugly.

Quoting futuremet:
CMC 12Z is picking up this system

thanks for this link

Porbably the Sw Atl development has the best chance this week since it has the model support, most likely something tropical or subtropical but with an influx of tropical air along the point of genesis, unlikey non-tropical.

Thanks Keep it is about that time. Thank you for the weathertap pics

Good afternoon...

Quoting futuremet:
CMC 12Z is picking up this system

Interesting though; it picks it up around Cuba though so are we looking at wave regeneration as it keeps on moving West? If the current sheer prevents a depression from forming, but, it comes back from dead in a few days in the Central Caribbean, it will truly become the "Zombie" storm that someone mentioned earlier....

guys give me an update I just came back from lunch and 97l is looking better and surface obs i can not ignor and the ull is moving out and shear is decreasing possible orand code at the 2 oo update or 8 oo

According to TWC:
Although it has been a relatively slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the season is historically only about 13% complete at this time of year. In the active 2004 season (which produced four U.S. hurricane landfalls), the first storm was not named until August 1.
It's possible this year will be the same.

Quoting moonlightcowboy:

Yuck, that's ugly.

I clicked on link and its a still pic. where can i go to have motion?

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Interesting though; it picks it up around Cuba though so are we looking at wave regeneration as it keeps on moving West? If the current sheer prevents a depression from forming, but, it comes back from dead in a few days in the Central Caribbean, it will truly become the "Zombie" storm that soemone mentioned earlier....

Maybe interaction with the T-Wave 97L and the Trough over the SE.

Quoting sporteguy03:
Thanks Keep it is about that time. Thank you for the weathertap pics

your welcome 03 just doing my part never forecast fake info that you can take to the bank

Quoting Vortex95:


I wonder how it will look between 7-8 pm.

If it maintains its convection by then, it is an indication that it has a well defined LLC to generate its own thunderstorms.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys give me an update I just came back from lunch and 97l is looking better and surface obs i can not ignor and the ull is moving out and shear is decreasing possible orand code at the 2 oo update or 8 oo

That was my train of thought also, but I think the NHC will look for persistence through DMIN

Just dont see upper conditions cooperating as indicated with some models the past few days.I dont put too much faith in any forecast that goes out any further than 5-7 days.The relative forecast skill decreases rather significantly as one goes further out in time. Due to smaller scale atmospheric features such as the unexpected development of a TUTT for example.

Quoting btwntx08:
i do not waning see of convection yet its still blowing bits of convection keep lookin

you will see it by the next image at 130 watch wait see daytime heat is about to do in the current convective burst just like yesterday

Quoting LPStormspotter:


I clicked on link and its a still pic. where can i go to have motion?

On the right hand side of the pic there should be a group of buttons for frames and forward.

Weather is weird this year ... in the Great lakes Region we have had only 1 day above 30C ... July is half over and it still feels like spring LOL!

Hurricane season is unpredictable who knows what August will bring us!

Quoting hurricane23:
Just dont see upper conditions cooperating as indicated with some models the past few days.I dont put too much faith in any forecast that goes out any further than 5-7 days.The relative forecast skill decreases rather significantly as one goes further out in time. Due to smaller scale atmospheric features such as the unexpected development of a TUTT for example.

Never mind I see what you are saying

Does anyone think that this pattern the East Coast of CONUS is in, resembles any comparison to that of Hurricane Bob in 1991?

Kind of a strange question, but as we have seen the convection tends to drop off during the day due to the heat. Will there be any affect on 97l (if it is still around) when we have the solar eclipse. Will it act as an extended d-max period? TIA

Anti-cyclone emerging into the central Caribbean - should be interesting to see any shear relax and how it aids any development.

Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Kind of a strange question, but as we have seen the convection tends to drop off during the day due to the heat. Will there be any affect on 97l (if it is still around) when we have the solar eclipse. Will it act as an extended d-max period? TIA

There is a solar eclipse?

The weaker 97L stays the further west it will move, the stronger it gets the further north it will go. So right now I say it stays in the Caribbean Sea given that its weak and is still heading towards the west at a very good clip, so this won't affect the East Coast at this present time. I think its home grown development that the models are showing coming up the coast. The models also tend to break down the Bermuda High a little too quickly given that the trough is located over the Great Lakes and pretty much the center of the country.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Wasn't the TUTT there weeks before this?

The caribbean so far this year has been quite hostile with fast westerlies,thats what el nino will do for you.

Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Kind of a strange question, but as we have seen the convection tends to drop off during the day due to the heat. Will there be any affect on 97l (if it is still around) when we have the solar eclipse. Will it act as an extended d-max period? TIA

I don't think the eclipse is going to be visible in the western hemisphere. But, those things don't last very long anyways, but it was an interesting question. ;)

Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Anti-cyclone emerging into the central Caribbean - should be interesting to see any shear relax and how it aids any development.

was this something that was anticipated ???

latest image 127 pm edt

convective tops warming

convection waning

it's been starting to wane at about this time of day in the past so I would expect that to continue.

Quoting moonlightcowboy:

I don't think the eclipse is going to be visible in the western hemisphere. But, those things don't last very long anyways, but it was an interesting question. ;)

I hear this is supposed to be the longest one in a long time. It would be interesting if it was visible a little more to the east. Thanks for the reply mlc.

Quoting moonlightcowboy:

On the right hand side of the pic there should be a group of buttons for frames and forward.

Lol sorry.. got it now

Quoting Seflhurricane:
was this something that was anticipated ???

I think 97L was hoping for it! ;)

Based on the latest Shear charts tendencies... 97L appears to be approaching an area of decreasing shear. Wonder if this trend will continue.

Quoting WxLogic:
Based on the latest Shear charts tendencies... 97L appears to be approaching an area of decreasing shear. Wonder if this trend will continue.

Small window might be there but in my view it wont last.

El Nino will probably be gone by fall. Look how high the SOI is. You would think we were in a La Nina.

i wonder of the nhc will upgrade this code to orange

There goes the ULL

SOI

Notice how it went negative when El Nino started...now its starting to reverse.