High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That was Fay that strengthened over Lake O.
It won't and even if it did it would weaken because the trough forced the shear into the GOM from the bahamas.
Thanks for all the inputs to read/catch up on :)
Grantley Adams Barbados (Notes that the pressure's stayed steady today)
There he goes again, put him on ignore.
Wind Shear is really taking a toll on 97L. Most of the cirrus clouds have been sheared to the south east. Wind Shear is dampening heavy thunder activity from the center and this may be a problem as this system will be under high to moderate shear for the next days. Especially later today when it enters the diurnal minimum which will slow heavy thunder storm activity from re-fire.
The biggest "if", or an "if" anyway, is if the disturbance associated with 97L stays with the general track of the wave or if it follows the pattern and the northen end fractures off and rides the ridge.
Not really. I think it looks really ragged.
Thats ridiculous. More likely a carolinas storm.
10 mins
Too close for comfort for the carolinas and Virginia.
The CMC tries to spin everything up, and is usually only good for a "worst possible case" until it is fully initialized. Also, I think Joe Bastardi may have stock in the people who run the CMC. I would discount it as an outlier.
Its the NAM...not the CMC lol.
yeah, unfortunately for florida systems dont tend to weaken too much over or near it. just too darn skinny. almost re-strengthened to a hurricane before the carolinas. western cuba and haiti equaled death to ernesto though and hopefully the same for this tiny invest lol.
in just 14 minutes you have went from this storm is coming back to this storm is dead lol
Don't mind me then. hehe.
(It is still an outlier)
Im pretty sure they could handle a 40mph TS lol.
08/29 12 GMT 23.2 79.3 45 1006 Tropical Storm
08/29 18 GMT 23.9 79.9 45 1005 Tropical Storm
08/30 00 GMT 24.7 80.4 45 1004 Tropical Storm
08/30 06 GMT 25.3 80.8 45 1003 Tropical Storm
08/30 12 GMT 26.1 81.0 40 1002 Tropical Storm
08/30 18 GMT 27.0 80.9 40 1001 Tropical Storm
08/31 00 GMT 28.1 80.7 40 1000
That's Ernesto's trip exiting Cuba to exiting Florida.
Yes it is...I've never use the NAM for tropical weather and I wont start now.
lol
Hes just a kid...an impatient kid.
Not sure where your at but, I witnessed both of them first hand.
never have never will LOL.
The cmc picks it up too. It doesn't bring to NYC though.
I use to live 20 miles from NYC in NE NJ. I was there for Floyd which was a 70mph TS when it hit the area.
And, looking at water vapor, the anti-cyclone seems to be emerging, broadening in the direction of 97L, knocking back some of the westerly shear. Will it get there in time? LOL. I'm beginning to doubt it myself.
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