High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index
Directly in front of 97L is an area of very low shear. And the satellite presentation shows that it's taking advantage; a blob of intense convection has formed over the LLC and expanded westward in the past hour.
Is that really an anticyclone, -5knots?
97L will do what it wants to do. Everyone has there own opinion, and people shouldn't be attacking people for what they say. People we will just watch this storm and see what it does. It has held up this long, it could be gone soon or stay together.
I believe it is
lol yes
When afternoon comes, everyone downcast.
Yep! God help us when something real blows up....the CaT.10 people will come out then...LOL
That's just plain disrespectful after having it removed once before.
above panama
actually it would probably be better cuz there would be no debate as to whether it was developing or not lol
Since you're my 100th customer you go twice on the list.
yes its a fake, he did it twice now
Why yes it is.
Yes it is
lmao...
Sure is. Fricken' scaremonger. Reported.
hes the first person on my list too.. it feels great to have this power why haven't i used it before?? :D
i cant believe he did that again even after he had the post removed..
congrats...you're #74.
bye:)
me to
for 4 days now it has struggled in the afternoon and early evening, only to come back and survive overnight. If tomorrow morning it does not come back, then its curtains, but not yet.
post 954 is not correct, is it? I just checked NHC site, that's not what it shows
Reported...again.
Most on here know whats its like. Most been here awhile
Put him on ignore...no, it's not true.
Double unbelievable!
Double deserved it.
he wasnt banned
Tropical systems go through cycles it is important to note convection waxes and wanes during the day this is normal, yes 97L is getting sheared but the convection cycle is normal.
Recently, this user [jasoniscoolman09] had a post deleted for presenting doctored NHC graphics as genuine. He established himself as deceitful, reckless and one not to be trusted. Fortunately, there are others who can quickly spot his fakes.
Unfortunately, the critical danger is this. He has posted a real NHC graphic but with the same "Ha Ha" text that accompanied his fake. Where at once people questioned him, now people question or completely disregard official NHC graphics that he provides. What is more appalling is that by providing the "Ha Ha" caption, he is demonstrating that it is his malicious intent to cause NHC graphics to be disregarded. For the good of the community and the safety of its members, he must be immediately and permanently removed.
Thank you for all of your wonderful work.
Exactly! Point is 97L is just about dead but people want to keep going with it. If there isn't a storm out there, then there is nothing to wishcast with!!!!LOL
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index