Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Acemmett90:

ok i give up on this then

na dont its all a bout learning jsut wait every three hours before posting on what a system is doing thats about the time lapse where things go up and down look no one here expected to see this burst of conv. that just formed in the last 15 min and could be what we been waiting for to 97l get better structure

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
XTRAP just shows a system's extrapolated path based on its current velocity. XTRAP is not a model.

I know that, I was just saying that if it kept its current speed and direction of motion

Quoting Acemmett90:

ok i give up on this then

You gave up on it 20 minutes ago

Quoting extreme236:


God 99L was so annoying. It almost developed but then disorganized...then in the far West Caribbean it almost became a depression but moved inland. Thats what ya get when you sprint at 25 MPH the whole way through the Carribean.

99L was TRUE pain, but I wasn't expecting that the next year every other invest was going to be like that.

500mb vorticity is displaced to the east of the 850.....AND there isnt much to it *shrugs again*

Quoting BajaALemt:
500mb vorticity is displaced to the east of the 850.....AND there isnt much to it *shrugs again*

look at the 700mb

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
funny i didnt read the nhc report!! mmmm that was just an analysis by me myself and i.

Yes sure, just admit you are employed by the NHC and you wrote the Outlook (;

Actually 97L isn't all that disorganized,
judging from readings from the Islands, I'd say 97L has a weak LLC. Convetion is persistant, but DMIN does that to weaker systems, kicks the crap out of it.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It needs persistence and organization, it has neither of those

it has persistence, otherwise it would have been ripped apart long ago.

13.5N/60.5W, Is that about right?

Ok so i'm hearing 97L has a closed circulation at the surface as well i heard someone post a pressure of 1008 mb, it has convection, Winds on the QuikSCAT are over 30 knots, and it is sorta-kinda-in its own way organized, if all the statements posted on this blog are true we got ourselves TD#2. But most of the time the statements posted here are wrong, including mine.

hmmmmm

I was thinking of 97L as this way lol

It isnt as disorganized as those who think its dead think it is

It is also not as organized as those who think it could be a TD by tomorrow

make sense? lol

Quoting frostynugs:

it has persistence, otherwise it would have been ripped apart long ago.

he means with convection. DMIN and DMAX still play a huge role in the system which means its llc (if it has one) is pretty weak and the system cant produce thunderstorms on its own

local station here in Central Florida just covered this wave and said its got a shot to develop in a few days and the moisture would get pulled up to Florida

Acemmett90 - have some patience...tropical waves are embedded in a regional pattern and the interaction between the wave and the upper and lower level winds around it change with time. The environment that 97L is heading towards is complicated by the shear ahead of it and a deeper than normal trough over the GOM. An upper level low (ULL) is forecast to form in the SE GOM and move NE over central Fla, and there is a remnant area of activity in the Bahamas to its north moving west.

All of this is going to play out over the next two days converging in SE Fla and the Bahamas. Right now it just is not predictable as to what will happen with 97L because too much depends upon the active environment to its west and north. I am not convinced that 97L will make it north of the western to central Caribbean even with a retreating high off the coast of Fla...time will tell.

Quoting canesrule1:
Ok so i'm hearing 97L has a closed circulation at the surface as well i heard someone post a pressure of 1008 mb, it has convection, Winds on the QuikSCAT are over 30 knots, and it is sorta-kinda-in its own way organized, if all the statements posted on this blog are true we got ourselves TD#2. But most of the time the statements posted here are wrong, including mine.

The support for a LLC is the self-sustaining convection during DMIN as well as west winds on the islands.

Whether there is one or not? Probably a weak one, given the blow up at this time of day.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


99L was TRUE pain, but I wasn't expecting that the next year every other invest was going to be like that.

Yeh - my desk got hit several times when I tried to forcast 99L - I just gave up.

Quoting canesrule1:
Ok so i'm hearing 97L has a closed circulation at the surface as well i heard someone post a pressure of 1008 mb, it has convection, Winds on the QuikSCAT are over 30 knots, and it is sorta-kinda-in its own way organized, if all the statements posted on this blog are true we got ourselves TD#2. But most of the time the statements posted here are wrong, including mine.

It lacks organization and persistence in convection; It is not a TD

Could anyone tell me how often the Floater Imagery is updated? I'm not sure how often to look and how often would be too often and a waste of time.

Quoting canesrule1:
Ok so i'm hearing 97L has a closed circulation at the surface as well i heard someone post a pressure of 1008 mb, it has convection, Winds on the QuikSCAT are over 30 knots, and it is sorta-kinda-in its own way organized, if all the statements posted on this blog are true we got ourselves TD#2. But most of the time the statements posted here are wrong, including mine.

wait 6 more hours and if everything is still as you posted then we might just get the td status from the navysite first then the nhc will follow thats how they usally jude these systems in the past

It will be interesting to see if quikscat catches it tonight.

Quoting KimberlyB:
Could anyone tell me how often the Floater Imagery is updated? I'm not sure how often to look and how often would be too often and a waste of time.

every 30 mins

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It lacks organization and persistence in convection; It is not a TD

There is organization read the vorticity

Thanks all.

afternoon everyone...hell if little o'l 97L made it this far, give it a chance people....oh the shear will kill it for sure..that was 2 days ago and look we are still talking about it..if anything remember these past few years have NOT been the norm, and with the weird cold fronts and crap happening lately...don't wave that flag in the air just yet on little o'l 97L....that little thing is a fighter!!

97L is holding it's own stuff this evening. I can see how it can keep going and I can now see why some models hold the circulation and then form it in the Bahamas. An interesting week this will be indeed. I'm starting think chances of Ana forming before August are a bit higher, though in my books, Ana formed May of this year right before making landfall in Alabama. I still hold strong to that argument, evidence was there and even METS believe it was purely tropical. Anyways, 97L MIGHT put on a good show tonight, not really sure though. It wants to be like it's hero Barry :D

Quoting KimberlyB:
Could anyone tell me how often the Floater Imagery is updated? I'm not sure how often to look and how often would be too often and a waste of time.

Also, if you are watching the java loop from NHC, it should update automatically with the new one, throwing out the oldest frame.

Just look at the time at the bottom.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

There is organization read the vorticity

I did the circulations are not aligned, it is still disorganized

This is not a TD, despite the observations

Good afternoon! See that our invest continues to be kicking and refusing to surrender. Pretty pesky little guy if you ask me.

I've been watching the observations from Barbados throughout the day and they would seem to suggest that a closed surface circulation has indeed formed with this disturbance, but with wind shear affecting the system, its really difficult to even verify on satellite.

Many people on here have been attracted to the deep convective burst occurring over the assumed center. Well, this may be attributed to the TUTT.

There goes the ULL

Aaah 99L .....the nostalgia of it!

Quoting reedzone:
97L is holding it's own stuff this evening. I can see how it can keep going and I can now see why some models hold the circulation and then form it in the Bahamas. An interesting week this will be indeed. I'm starting think chances of Ana forming before August are a bit higher, though in my books, Ana formed May of this year right before making landfall in Alabama. I still hold strong to that argument, evidence was there and even METS believe it was purely tropical. Anyways, 97L MIGHT put on a good show tonight, not really sure though. It wants to be like it's hero Barry :D

But Ralphy knows that to form it needs a sex change, which means its hero will become Wilma (Wilma put up with 120kts of Windshear after landfalling with Florida)

All NOAA Floaters..

Float Areas
Atlantic
East and Central Pacific
West Pacific

Vorticity continues to stay strong and the Bahamas disturbance/wave now has vorticity growing..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

Really would not be surprised if we get 2 east coast Tropical Systems in one week lol.. Longshot though.

A closed circ at the Surface dosent throw out outflow boundaries...


Floater - Visible Loop

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
cchsweatherman this station strongly implies a closed surface circulation:

Link

It doesn't though.

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


But Ralphy knows that to form it needs a sex change, which means its hero will become Wilma (Wilma put up with 120kts of Windshear after landfalling with Florida)

Of course, Wilma at that time had a serious lead foot, moving away from FL at 40+ knots.

Ok all these are the latest news on 97L it does have a closed circulation on the surface (clap clap clap) and winds are over TD force (clap clap clap) hey but guess what life isn't perfect so guess what there's something wrong it is lacking persistance and organization in convection, so for all yall saying it will be a TD tomorrow guess what the most it will be is probably code orange on the NHC site.

before everyone said ohh rip , its getting ripped , now the tune has change to weather it has a closed circ, or west winds , talk about a 90 degree turn that right there shows u 97l is not dead yet as others posted lol

I;d say 97 has been persistent, but not consistent. There's a difference. I agree on the fact that a weak LLC may be present, and 97 does have quite strong vorticity associated with it. The developing anticyclone will help slightly, but overall it probably won't develop over the next couple of days. I do, however, think it will hang around and not completely die off.