High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"B", Drak, I'm with it. But, I may change my mind in the a.m. LOL
Call me crazy, but B. I think it will develop, but not until 75W. I've stuck with this prediction for days, and I'll have my crow if I'm wrong. >_>
90L Tropical Cyclone Report
Animated Martinique Radar Loop,AL97
I'm not sure, but probably B (TS Ana)
A. 2
B. 4
C. 6
XFD
D. more than 6 lol
6 is the highest number??
We are gathered here today to honor an invest that was incorrectly designated. It gave a valiant effort but is being ripped apart by a blow-dryer in the east Caribbean sea.
May it RIP and may the Navy and NHC realize that 95L comes after 94L and not 97L.
NEXT!
1. It's battling wind shear between 20-30+ knots.
2.
Over 9,000!
A W E S O M E detailed report, 456! 90L should have been named TS Ana imo. Thanks for that info. Sharp reading. Should be sent to the NHC, imo, to support their review.
This is the invest version of Shrodinger's cat. No one knows if it's dead or alive, lol.
"Apply directly to the forehead"
a) yellow
b)orange
c)red
d)no circle
give me your feedback, thanks.
2. Wind shear will start decreasing substantially tomorrow.
3. If it wraps itself with convection tonight, it may survive.
4. If it capitulate to shear, then death is inevitable.
Regardless, tomorrow we will know for sure if this system will make it or not, it is to early to tell now.
It is the favorable upper wind environment forecast by all the models (CMC included, which up until today, was generally an outlier in calling for relaxation of the vertical shear) that has prompted me not to give up completely on 97L.
Does that mean you are going to put a red circle up somewhere?
At 8 the NHC will go with
a) yellow
b)orange
c)red
d)no circle
day-glow pink
Yellow, as they so rightly should.
new convection building cooling with some slight expanding
97L is a mess at the moment, but the shear tendency shows that mean shear has been decreasing over the past hours. The models are expecting marginally favorable conditions for tomorrow, and then rapidly degenerate the TUTT over the Caribbean by Wednesday. Tomorrow is the day we will know for sure. =D
I am sick of monitoring this Fayful storm
LOL
No , code brown.
Nah....97L picked up a blackhead cruising through the islands.....pop....
Thanks but I'll leave the NHC to decide next year.
Does the speed of a system make any difference concerning the amount of shear it can take?
thanks
Where was 95L?
Viewing: 1601 - 1651
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