High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wow...just looked at mother's temp in southern Indiana and its 66deg now...while its 81 in Tampa
The Brick Wall Of Shear.
Am i allowed to say i told you so yet......LOL....just kidding!
yeppers.....but, yet we don't know anything at all tho......LOL....good job Ben!
We hit 39.2 here today according to my weather station... and its suppose to get hotter every day this week.
39.2 C = 102.6 F
Ummm you have been saying it was going to be dead every day for the last 4 days....
I think the only thing that might kill it is landfall interruptis
Local mets here in MIA are saying it will interact with low pressure that is now over Louisiana and bring heavy rain and wind to MIA
that sounds about right, several forecast models are taking all that energy that will be by the Bahamas late in the week and developing it into a storm
Columbia gets "hit" but I think some people dont knwo the diffrence between a direct hit and a skirt. Its all semantics anyway
I said 4 days ago that it would run into high shear on Sunday and Monday and it would not survive....Looks pretty bad i would say.
I loved the boardwalk! went there many times. Good memories. matter of fact, first encounter w/ a tropical system was with Hurricane Gloria.
There is a ton of potential energy all over the place right now.
They have been talking about the three waves. The first one by the Bahamas should effect us tomorrow afternoon, 97L by Thursday and the third one by this weekend
oh and 97L will be part of that energy :P lol
What are those yellow boxes? JUST KIDDING!!!
I put those up so people would have something to say on slow days :)
Those are the Orca boxes, it shows that if an Orca swims through those boxes they will end up offshore of Florida lol
lol i know, those debates are a cure for the will to live.
You've made your point.
I have boated through one of those boxes and I ended up in Florida.
97L is looking rough. So, is all this shear and these ULLs attributed to El Nino? If so, why would it relax in August to lead to more development of storms? I don't think we will see much this season at all. I have never seen such a hostile Atlantic.
Where did you live? I though Gloria stayed well off shore and Beller missed NJ?
They would have to move the box closer to the beaches in Cancun or Cuba for me to swim in them...
I was like Cuba? Then i realized your Canadian and can still go there.
Yes and I would assume you guys will be all over it next year also... It should be open by then for American tourists.
My mom is from there and I gather she has ZERO interest in visiting
Crazy and cool. Tropical Atlantic City
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO 12N61W TO 5N62W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE FALLS PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 20/1350 UTC INDICATE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 59W-62W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
60W-63W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA AND NW GUYANA.
It doesn't sound that bad?
Already open. Just need a private boat.
Personally, sorry, not supportive. Plenty of well made cigars elsewhere.
yup that is the one
There is some cool videos on Youtube that has the WeatherChannel and news programs about it. Oh how I miss the old weather channel.
I am curious what they will say in the next TWO. Do you believe the invest will be deactivated?
I would say no, I guess we will see
My father said the waters were very polluted back then, something about medical waste washing onshore?
I am curious what they will say in the next TWO. Do you believe the invest will be deactivated?
I doubt it
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