Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Adding to that the slow start to the season, it is hard not to think of a similar season to 2004

every year is different though, 2009 will in the end only be like 2009 lol

2004 minus El Nino Modoki and subsequent decrease in shear. I think this year shear will lean more towards unreactive El Nino years than the ones that are active.

Quoting Drakoen:


2004 minus El Nino Modoki and subsequent decrease in shear. I think this year shear will lean more towards unreactive El Nino years than the ones that are active.

yea there will be differences, I think we will get close to 10 named storms than we will to the 15 that occured in 2004. Also things wont be exactly the same, everything in the tropics are still all about timing.

unreactive El Nino, didnt we have a season like that recently?

2002?

Quiet blog day not anymore 97L or shear debates every minute and seeing some good topics discussed.

500mb mean geopotential heights. The trough becomes more fixated on the plains while the heights increase over the Canadian Maritimes:

IF I'm not mistaken I think we had 9 named storms in September 2002.

Quoting Drakoen:
500mb mean geopotential heights. The trough becomes more fixated on the plains while the heights increase over the Canadian Maritimes:

All I can say is be glad we are mostly quiet now, cuz its not going to last

I would "LOL!" if the Glosea forecast came true. A lot of upset bloggers.

From doppler radar it looks something like a TD or TS.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


All I can say is be glad we are mostly quiet now, cuz its not going to last

That's just in regards to steering. It's whether or not we get a system that forms in the MDR is when we need to worry.

Quoting stormpetrol:
IF I'm not mistaken I think we had 9 named storms in September 2002.

yes we did, it was tied for the record for the month of September, with 8

Quoting Drakoen:


That's just in regards to steering. It's whether or not we get a system that forms in the MDR is when we need to worry.

yea i know

What is the longitude and lat of the next wave?

Quoting stormsurge39:
What is the longitude and lat of the next wave?

If you're talking about the one near SA it's 55W.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I linked a paper in 290 that references quality issues with auto traffic.

Thanks nrt. Interesting. Nice Overview.

It mostly says that automated algorithms using the velocity get confused by auto signals, right?

Obviously, the bridge shows up very well in the velocities, but appears to have no actual values...except maybe at the south end. Hey is does have both moving fast away and towards on the south end.

The purple roughly N/S line across the lake is a perfect roadmap of the bridge.

It looks like the center of circulation is about 50w? Are allthe storms ahead of it?

It looks like a subtropical or extra tropical storm is possibly forming. Would the Bahama disturbance use 97L's moisture? That would be interesting. Right now the two disturbances are fusing together. If one were to develop, it will be the Bahama disturbance, which will most likely be dubbed 98L very soon.

86 degrees all over the gulf of mexico. Hope nothing ,akes it's way in there anytime soon!

Here is the radar view. I got this from one of my local TV stations in Richmond. At the bottom you can see the disturbance.

went dishing with a friend anf he has this fish finder that shows thermoclines in the water. If it is correct there were not any. It was 86 degress all the way to the bottom. 90 feet

spelling? guess I will type in word and copy and paste!

Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
wow look at this storm....

You could locate the center. Almost looks like an eye. I think we may have a Td in the making.

How do I change my avaitar?

Quoting Autistic2:
spelling? guess I will type in word and copy and paste!

You click on Modify comment, and you can correct any spelling errors.

Well i'm still sticking to my forecast of 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. We can agree to dissagree, the wonders of the wunderground blog, we can state our own opinions on things. I'm starting to agree with StormW in thinking the El Nino may not be as classic as originally thought, it might also go away by the wintertime. We'll have to see what happens, things can change and I will not be surprised if we get a below average season. Though I think it's more of a 2004ish pattern but I see more of an East Coast then a GOM event. Again, please don't tell me i'm wrong and stuff, it's just a personal opinion of mine made by observations. No one is right when it comes to weather because Mother Nature loves to bring curve balls.

That storm is a rock solid two toner.

Quoting tropicfreak:


You click on Modify comment, and you can correct any spelling errors.

Thanks

Quoting atmoaggie:


Thanks nrt. Interesting. Nice Overview.

It mostly says that automated algorithms using the velocity get confused by auto signals, right?

Obviously, the bridge shows up very well in the velocities, but appears to have no actual values...except maybe at the south end. Hey is does have both moving fast away and towards on the south end.

The purple roughly N/S line across the lake is a perfect roadmap of the bridge.

Noticed if you change the elevation angle on the "normal" radar, the the bridge also appears. If you raise it on the TDWR, it disappears. I think it just the "noise algorithm".

Quoting reedzone:
Well i'm still sticking to my forecast of 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. We can agree to dissagree, the wonders of the wunderground blog, we can state our own opinions on things. I'm starting to agree with StormW in thinking the El Nino may not be as classic as originally thought, it might also go away by the wintertime. We'll have to see what happens, things can change and I will not be surprised if we get a below average season. Though I think it's more of a 2004ish pattern but I see more of an East Coast then a GOM event. Again, please don't tell me i'm wrong and stuff, it's just a personal opinion of mine made by observations. No one is right when it comes to weather because Mother Nature loves to bring curve balls.

Though 2004 was more of a florida Hurricanefest.

What the hell is a two toner?

Quoting G35Wayne:
What the hell is a two toner?

Beats me.

Quoting tropicfreak:


Though 2004 was more of a florida Hurricanefest.

I believe the East Coast is in more danger form Florida to Maine, also Bermuda. My personal opinion that is..

Quoting RufusBaker:
That storm is a rock solid two toner.

speaking of rock is that a problem for ya we can help

Quoting reedzone:


I believe the East Coast is in more danger form Florida to Maine, also Bermuda. My personal opinion that is..

With the weather pattern this summer I agree.

Quoting G35Wayne:
What the hell is a two toner?

A two toner is well a one toner with another...Hell I have no idea

Suppose 2009 did end up like 2004, not the same pattern but 5 in August, 6-7 in september and another 2 between october and november. How would you react come November 30?

Quoting Weather456:
Suppose 2009 did end up like 2004, not the same pattern but 5 in August, 6-7 in september and another 2 between october and november. How would you react come November 30?

It would probably cut down on the season is a bust people lol

Quoting Weather456:
Suppose 2009 did end up like 2004, not the same pattern but 5 in August, 6-7 in september and another 2 between october and november. How would you react come November 30?

I for one just don't want anyone and espically florida to get slamed again. I know it is not realistic, Hurricanes hit land. people suffer. I was up set when we lot power for two week but the house was fine.

Quoting Weather456:
Suppose 2009 did end up like 2004, not the same pattern but 5 in August, 6-7 in september and another 2 between october and november. How would you react come November 30?

I would be really happy that we are having hurricane impact windows installed this month. Putting the shutters up, then taking them down and putting them up again, got old really fast.

Personally, thank goodness this year seems to be a bust imo for tropical storms. This just seems to be setting up for a very early fall pattern with the cooler temps of the US. Its like a stiffeling lack of energy for storms to develop. More like slow steady rainsoaking cold fronts..

Quoting sngalla:


I would be really happy that we are having hurricane impact windows installed this month. Putting the shutters up, then taking them down and putting them up again, got old really fast.

I wish I could talk my apartment complex into those... I have 3 pine trees in front of my apartment.

Quoting gwhite713:
Personally, thank goodness this year seems to be a bust imo for tropical storms. This just seems to be setting up for a very early fall pattern with the cooler temps of the US. Its like a stiffeling lack of energy for storms to develop. More like slow steady rainsoaking cold fronts..

I hope your first line is a joke, July 22nd and you call the season a bust


actually explain to me why you feel this season is a "bust" as you say.

Quoting jeffs713:


I wish I could talk my apartment complex into those... I have 3 pine trees in front of my apartment.

With the economy so slow, we managed to get a really good deal.

Quoting jeffs713:


I wish I could talk my apartment complex into those... I have 3 pine trees in front of my apartment.

Because they are expensive to replace. They do hold back debris but the first layer breaks sometimes and you have to replace the whole window.

422.

Have you checked into weather conditions on the great plains or Florida recently? How about the temps in TX all of last month and most of this month? It is hardly a "fall" pattern, nor is there a lack of energy. This year is more or less normal, and based on past history, the Atlantic will get cooking very soon.

Quoting jeffs713:
422.

Have you checked into weather conditions on the great plains or Florida recently? How about the temps in TX all of last month and most of this month? It is hardly a "fall" pattern, nor is there a lack of energy. This year is more or less normal, and based on past history, the Atlantic will get cooking very soon.

I think its wise if we dont take the bait anymore, I mean obviously the "this season is a bust" crowd show no basis as to why, they only do it to get a reaction

anyway Im out for a bit to hange with the nephews, bbl

Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Because they are expensive to replace. They do hold back debris but the first layer breaks sometimes and you have to replace the whole window.

Oh, I know. It was just wishful thinking. I am definitely planning on putting them on when I buy a house, though.

Quoting Weather456:
Suppose 2009 did end up like 2004, not the same pattern but 5 in August, 6-7 in september and another 2 between october and november. How would you react come November 30?

"ha ha, I told you so" :P ... not really.. I would just tell you "It is what it is"

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think its wise if we dont take the bait anymore, I mean obviously the "this season is a bust" crowd show no basis as to why, they only do it to get a reaction

anyway Im out for a bit to hange with the nephews, bbl

Thats why I don't quote those. Also, sometimes, people really are asking legit questions and making legit statements. If that person doesn't reply back, they are either trolling, or I answered their question.