Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Im a lil off today as the Ol slipped disc required 6 Hours at the VA this day.
Thanks for the Taxes that also provided for my Health Care today.
Hope that covers this post..
LOL
Total NOAA Stats
According to the charts accompanying this information (too large to post), during this 1940-2008 period, when the first tropical cyclone did not develop until after July 20th...
a) The average number of storms in such a season was 10;
b) The average number of landfalling storms in such a season was 3;
c) The average number of storms making a Florida landfall in such a season was 1;
Food for Thought.
ok, so it is looking more favorable then...?
I wonder what it is for Aug. 20th?
Could you post a link to a page with the charts?
Good question, but, these stats include all the years (including the August starts as mentioned by Dr. M) in the period......If they used a different date (i.e. Aug 20th), then I suspect the average number would probably go down to about 6-7 storms.
Not only that, but it started drying out all the moisture content too.
Hey, hey, hey, excuse me but spinal cord injuries are no excuse for faulty graphics Patrap...however incontenince is an entire different matter all together....
collection stations up
Updated: Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009, 1:29 PM CDT
Published : Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009, 1:29 PM CDT
Liz Nelson
MOBILE, Ala. - The Center for Hurricane Intensity and Landfall Investigation, or CHILI, at the University of South Alabama will add 12 more stations for the collection of weather data throughout south Alabama before the end of the year.
This means CHILI will be able to collect weather data within minutes from a total of 26 station and provide it in real time to researchers, National Weather Service forecasters and the public through a new Web site. The data will also be used to improve hurricane landfall and intensity predictions to aid emergency responders and the public.
That sounds about right(6-7).
I wouldn't say "favorable", just more "possible".
It was much funnier the first time.
OK, it's vacation, I'm thirsty, and happy hour awaits. God Bless!
ok
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Submitted by Beth Barnett
Five lighthouses that withstood the fury of devastating hurricanes in some cases while partially submerged will stand tall on postage with the issuance of the Gulf Coast Lighthouses commemorative stamps.
Available nationwide now, the 44-cent first-class stamps, issued in sheets of 20, depict the Matagorda Island, Texas; Sabine Pass, La.; Biloxi; Sand Island, Ala.; and Fort Jefferson, Fla., lighthouses.
The dedication ceremony took place at the Biloxi Lighthouse under conditions in stark contrast to 2005's Hurricane Katrina when a 26-foot storm surge engulfed Biloxi's treasured landmark, placing nearly half of the 64-ft. tall structure underwater.
LOL. Best "oops" on the blog. Congrats.
???
The drying out was over 2 days, though. The dmax cycle after the ULL started sucking up the moisture wasn't anything close to as significant as when the wave first rolled off. The moisture stream was also pinching off a little at the middle section, between the ULL and the wave itself.
By CAIN BURDEAU (AP) – 5 days ago
NEW ORLEANS — The Federal Emergency Management Agency took too long to respond to initial reports of dangerous levels of formaldehyde in trailers delivered to victims of the 2005 hurricanes, exposing people to possible health risks, a report of the Homeland Security Department inspector general said Thursday.
"FEMA did not display a degree of urgency in reacting to the reported formaldehyde problem," the report said, "a problem that could pose a significant health risk" to those living in the temporary housing.
The report marked a stinging reprimand of FEMA and its slow response to reports in 2006 that air in some trailers registered dangerously high levels of formaldehyde. Critics have said the chemical used in the manufacture of certain mobile homes and trailers can cause cancer and respiratory illnesses.
FEMA and its contractors shipped about 203,000 mobile homes, travel trailers and other models to victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, two of the worst storms in U.S. history. The hurricanes destroyed more than 300,000 homes in 2005 and displaced about 700,000 people.
The report said about one third of the units had "significant potential formaldehyde problems."
That design utilizes current STS engines and boosters. Both are dependable systems, time proven, and redesigned not to fail. Notice that the crew area is totally away from the rockets and fuel tank. Thank you Challenger. Also, there's no foam to shed on any heat shields, thank you Columbia, and to some extend Atlantis and Endeavour, also damaged by that damn foam, but not catastrophically. Let's see what happens. The U.S has to be able to achieve low earth orbit dependably, safely, and relatively cheaply to reach the ISS. Looks as if the orbiter is being replaced with a simpler design that will land like the old Apollo missions. The space program is neck and neck with my other passion, tropical weather!!
Some have asked, “If the season starts late, then there should be lower numbers of storms because there’s less time left in the season, right?” Well, the answer is “NO”. A little more than half of the seasons in the past 50 years that were off to an August start had above normal activity, averaging about 13 named storms. About the same number of seasons had above normal numbers of “Major” hurricanes meaning Category 3 or higher. Another thing that stuck out in the data was that out of the 7 late starting seasons that produced lower than normal activity, 4 of those had a Category 5! This would include Hurricane Andrew in 1992. 1992 produced only 7 named storms, but Andrew’s damage alone totalled about $35 Billion! That’s comparable to Hurricanes Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne combined in 2004. And costlier than Hurricanes Ike and Gustav in 2008. Only the record setting season of 2005 caused more financial damage to the United States thanks to Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dennis.
Written by Baker
July 29th, 2009 at 10:59 am
KATC Storm Team 3 Weather Blog
Really puts things in perspective, thanks for posting that.
P.S. New blog contest:
Blog Contest
"We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm."- J Masters
And well they should, I'm glad Jeff amended the blog today because when it comes down to it, technically and by the letter of his blog entry, 1992 should be there. The north eyewall experience in Kendall, FL for me was a true educational experience I will never forget. I have no recollection of the April un-named system.
If I might do a bit of wish-casting right now, let's keep this one quiet. I'd love the break. - take care folks
Read the entry above or check the NHC discussion.. But in a single word..
Nuthing
Good eve from first day of the special two day lobster sport season headquarters - crazy here
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