Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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If the Shuttle comes in first opportunity, Orlando will still hear it, Tampa wont.
Comes in second opportunity, both Tampa and Orlando will hear it and it will be LOUD in Tampa. Especially after hearing STS-119 and STS-123 land.
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Quoting leftovers:
1030pm shuttle landing? everynight recently getting lightning shows


No, 10:45 AM Friday. Mid-Morning landing.
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308. code1
Thanks Dr. M. I find it sad to read so much wishcasting here for a storm. Of course, there are still a few level headed bloggers here. Kudos to you! Assumptions are like *******, we all have them. Mine on the ones wishcasting? Either very young, or have never been through a bad one themselves. Yes, they are exciting to track and watch, but the fear and devastation of reality when they do landfall far outweighs any juveniles or others wishing for them. My hope is this will be a year of record, NO STORMS on any coastline.
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Quoting weatherdogg:
2010: only thing is, El Nino is strengthening rapidly. It is unusual for it to be doing so in the middle of the summer like this.


El Nino is NOT strengthening rapidly....in fact it seems as though it has peeked and may be weakening.
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306. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1997 had a HUGE El Nino, very strong. 8 named storms, but if 1997 was in the inactive period it would have been like 3 or 2 named.
2006 had a Mild El Nino, 10 storms.
If it was in the inactive period, it would have been like 6 storms.
2009 has a Weak El Nino, Im calling for 13 named still. We're still in the active period, and we just endured two hyper active seasons that were really destructive (2008 and 2007) and add to that the extreme hyper active season of 2005.

i agree
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no different than wishing hurricanes to form.going to effect someone.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


His posts dont deserve responses, dont waste your time



That was a low shot he did I think he needs "help."
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


what parts of Florida will get to hear the sonic boom?


When published the ground tracks will be at NASA - STS-127 Landing Ground Tracks.
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302. RM706
Quoting CycloneOz:
MAIN BLOG LEVEL DISCUSSION
INTERNET BLOGOSPHERE, CYBERLAND
205 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

MAIN BLOG LEVEL DISCUSSION FOR DR. MASTERS BLOG...KEY ELEMENTS OF RENEWED
DRAMAGENESIS HAS BEEN DETECTED
WITHIN DR. MASTERS WEATHERUNDERGROUND
MAIN BLOG.

FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR INCREASED DRAMAGENESIS
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH ABNORMAL BLOG ENTRIES FOCUSING
ON RHYMING SCHEMES AND A DISPROPORTIONATE
AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE ENERGY CAUSED FROM
TROPICAL WEATHER WITHDRAWL.

BLOGGERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUTDOORS AND
AWAY FROM INTERNET ACCESS SYSTEMS UNTIL
THE DRAMAGENESIS DETORIORATES, WHICH IS
EXPECTED BY BLOGGERS CENTRAL TO BE
ANYTIME THE HURRICANE SCORE PASSES FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OF 0,0,0 INTO 1,0,0.

FORECASTER OZ



HAHAHAHA
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2010: only thing is, El Nino is strengthening rapidly. It is unusual for it to be doing so in the middle of the summer like this.
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Quoting sporteguy03:



???? Link? Source?? If not that is not funny to wish people to lose jobs in any area.


His posts dont deserve responses, dont waste your time
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Quoting StormW:
I know there aren't any storms,
But we're still fairly much in the norm.

For those who can't wait, there's one thing for sure

Please be careful what you wish for.


You are absolutly right.
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Quoting help4u:
extending vacations to one month at national hurricane center.Layoffs possible.



???? Link? Source?? If not that is not funny to wish people to lose jobs in any area.
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Quoting StormW:
I know there aren't any storms,
But we're still fairly much in the norm.

For those who can't wait, there's one thing for sure

Please be careful what you wish for.


Good afternoon Storm! You are 100% correct! I am just watching and waiting for the 1st storm to happen, because it will at some point, and I will just wait until then. I will not root or cheer for a storm to form.
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Quoting StormW:
I know there aren't any storms,
But we're still fairly much in the norm.

For those who can't wait, there's one thing for sure

Please be careful what you wish for.


I like that one StormW

Quoting leftovers:
1030pm shuttle landing? everynight recently getting lightning shows


landing is in the morning I believe
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


what parts of Florida will get to hear the sonic boom?

usually most of central florida will hear it the best
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extending vacations to one month at national hurricane center.Layoffs possible.
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Oh really RufusBaker? Wow- aren't you knowledgable!
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
re: 270 BAP

responded:)


I think we need some action out there to watch so we can all have our minds in one accord :p


responded back
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Guys at the hurricane center are taking a week off spending time with family.
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!
Good afternoon Mr. Storm.
Your greeting is out of the norm.
When given the time, You should make it rhyme,
So the youngsters have something to scorn!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Again for those of you who might have missed
Space Shuttle Endeavour will land Friday at 10:45 AM EDT at Cape Kennedy Florida.




what parts of Florida will get to hear the sonic boom?
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!
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Again for those of you who might have missed
Space Shuttle Endeavour will land Friday at 10:45 AM EDT at Cape Kennedy Florida.


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Interesting read in the Baton Rouge Advocate just put out.

Lightning inside a hurricane could predict its intensity
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re: 270 BAP

responded:)


I think we need some action out there to watch so we can all have our minds in one accord :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1997 had a HUGE El Nino, very strong. 8 named storms, but if 1997 was in the inactive period it would have been like 3 or 2 named.
2006 had a Mild El Nino, 10 storms.
If it was in the inactive period, it would have been like 6 storms.
2009 has a Weak El Nino, Im calling for 13 named still. We're still in the active period, and we just endured two hyper active seasons that were really destructive (2008 and 2007) and add to that the extreme hyper active season of 2005.



your prediction might be right
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YELLOW CIRCLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EAST PAC.
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ITCZ Flatlined
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What I found interesting though, as our technology and understanding of tropical cyclones has increased so has our ammount of named storms. Several systems in 2008, 2007, 2005 would not have been named back in the 70's.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


what does that mean for floridians?


More of the same "S" we've been dealing with since the start of the rainy season. SWesterly flow, Hot, Humid, Rainey on the East Coast.
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SRT you have mail
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Quoting IKE:


WSster...I don't see anything for the next 15 days to be influenced by troughs in the east. If something strong is around under this pattern it would probably get pulled north...at some point.

Looks like a pattern where SE Texas may be spared in 2009.

I'm just a blogger...not an expert.
.

The Hallelujah chorus is blares form the speakers here in SeTX
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1997 had a HUGE El Nino, very strong. 8 named storms, but if 1997 was in the inactive period it would have been like 3 or 2 named.
2006 had a Mild El Nino, 10 storms.
If it was in the inactive period, it would have been like 6 storms.
2009 has a Weak El Nino, Im calling for 13 named still. We're still in the active period, and we just endured two hyper active seasons that were really destructive (2008 and 2007) and add to that the extreme hyper active season of 2005.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaDweller:
Drak-
Thanks.

I'm just an avid 'lurker' and you start to see how people write in their posts and firmly believe hurricane2009 and Burned are the same person. Not quite sure why people change their names... really don' care. Just making an observation. The giveaway happens to be the constant questioning/commenting on others posts/opinions.

With all that said- Burned is not your average nut job on this blog (jasoniscool) and does have an opinion that I do care to read.


The same redundant repetitive vehement posting lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
MAIN BLOG LEVEL DISCUSSION
INTERNET BLOGOSPHERE, CYBERLAND
205 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

MAIN BLOG LEVEL DISCUSSION FOR DR. MASTERS BLOG...KEY ELEMENTS OF RENEWED
DRAMAGENESIS HAS BEEN DETECTED
WITHIN DR. MASTERS WEATHERUNDERGROUND
MAIN BLOG.

FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR INCREASED DRAMAGENESIS
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH ABNORMAL BLOG ENTRIES FOCUSING
ON RHYMING SCHEMES AND A DISPROPORTIONATE
AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE ENERGY CAUSED FROM
TROPICAL WEATHER WITHDRAWL.

BLOGGERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUTDOORS AND
AWAY FROM INTERNET ACCESS SYSTEMS UNTIL
THE DRAMAGENESIS DETORIORATES, WHICH IS
EXPECTED BY BLOGGERS CENTRAL TO BE
ANYTIME THE HURRICANE SCORE PASSES FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OF 0,0,0 INTO 1,0,0.

FORECASTER OZ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Drak-
Thanks.

I'm just an avid 'lurker' and you start to see how people write in their posts and firmly believe hurricane2009 and Burned are the same person. Not quite sure why people change their names... really don' care. Just making an observation. The giveaway happens to be the constant questioning/commenting on others posts/opinions.

With all that said- Burned is not your average nut job on this blog (jasoniscool) and does have an opinion that I do care to read.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


haha!! After what you said the other day I started putting two and two together and I came up with the same idea you had..haha!! though I am not familiar with the original name just the 09 name...


The original name hasn't been here for a while but the scent is still there so to speak.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
What happened o the year of Hurricane Andrew? This was a late first season storm (and what a storm, I passed through it).
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Quoting stormsurge39:
There is an upper level low that has been parked all season long at 50w 30n. This is what is causing the south westerly shear the waves are running into. Im not talking about what its encountering now.


Yea I agree with you there, I thought you meant in the area where the wave just came off.

My bad
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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