Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
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Fiscal conservative? With all the money you spent on that Hurricane Suit?!? What are you talking about? J/K!
Evidently, code1 knows a lot more than many of us on here and wants to give us all lessons on how to not only think but also to act (as adults, I presume). Sounds like a personal problem to me.
I was looking at that feature earlier, just not quite sure what to make of it.
Sounds like your personel problem to me.
Code- You know the rule "Only read Dr.Master's and those that knows posts then leave.
No RUN!!!
Surprise Surprise
But shows a powerful hurricane in the EPAC.
Tell me that's not a rebirth of 97L. LOL
EASTATL
ShearMap
Upper level low
All too well...at least in your case it's WISE defense spending. Great stuff though, you shouldn't have to worry about getting hurt!
Do you think we will will have a storm to worry about this year? Any "gut" feelings out there??
Just curious.....
I know the season is slow right now, but I keep thinking that we are to have some strong storms this year...maybe not, but that is my feeling.
lol, It's just a ULL.
If you're looking for "gut" feelings, futuremet has just release a "deep analysis."
2 beautiful months of storm free tropics!
you are about to be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head
by the way its an offense to alter or otherwise present official information that is not in it orginal form
LOL during the next 72hrs.
Amen brother!
cyclones.We are getting beyond the time that we can attribute the slow feel of the season to just having been spoiled by all the active years in the last 15 yrs or so.
Adrian
I told my geography professor I was moving to Florida he said the following statements to me.
1) A barrier Island moves an average of 50 feet every 100 years.
2) If you live on a barrier Island count on losing everything you own every 50 years.
3) Every county of Florida will experience a cat 4 or greater, in 50 years intervals.
Do you guys think these statements are true?
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Will a storm form in the Atlantic basin this year? For sure.
Will a storm impact land in some way this year? Extremely likely (call it 99% sure).
Will it impact the Texas coast?
The chance is there, but it is entirely too early to say yes or no.
Forecasting is a science of numbers and facts. Hunches and guesses aren't really part of forecasting, and nothing should be based upon them.
Wow! That was almost painful to read. Did he attend the JFV school of grammar?
I threaten to report you in reply, please just leave me alone. You went personal, you insulted me and you went even lower, insulting my mother. Please Im trying to be level headed about this, just leave me alone. I don't want to fight, want to forecast and have a plesant discussion.
1) True
2) True
3) Statistically, it is highly probable, but with statistics, nothing is for certain. (it also varies on what you consider "experiencing a cat 4")
Do you fell we will have a storm this year?
Any "gut" feelings? just curious.
I know the season is slow now, but can't help but feel we are going to have some strong ones this year....maybe not,just my feeling.
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