World storm surge records
There's still not much to talk about the tropical Atlantic today. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of intense thunderstorms that spans the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown more active in the past few days, though. The two tropical waves in the ITCZ closest to the coast of Africa bear some scrutiny this week as they cross the Atlantic. However, none of the models are currently forecasting development of these waves, and there is plenty of wind shear and dry air that will interfere with potential development.
World storm surge records
In preparation for the release of a major new storm surge section of the web site, I've been researching storm surge records. The Bathurst Bay Cyclone, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, which struck Bathurst Bay, Australia on March 5, 1899, is generally credited with the world record for storm surge. The cyclone's storm surge is variously listed at 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet). The Category 5 cyclone was a monster--with sustained winds in excess of 175 mph and a central pressure between 880 and 914 mb. Mahina killed at least 307 people, mostly on pearling ships, and was the deadliest cyclone in Australian history. The eyewitness account of Mahina's record storm surge was provided by Constable J. M. Kenny, who journeyed to Barrow Point on Bathurst Bay to investigate a crime on the day of the storm. While camped on a ridge 40 feet above sea level and 1/2 mile inland, Kenny's camp was inundated by a storm wave, reaching waist-deep. On nearby Flinders Island, fish and dolphins were found on top of 15 meter (49 foot) cliffs. However, an analysis by Nott and Hayne (2000) found no evidence of storm-deposited debris higher than 3 - 5 meters above mean sea level in the region. They also cited two computer storm surge simulations of the cyclone that were unable to generate a surge higher than three meters. Indeed, Bathurst Bay is not ideally situated to receive high storm surges. The Great Barrier Reef lies just 20 - 40 km offshore, and the ocean bottom near the bay is not shallow, but steeply sloped. Both of these factors should conspire to keep storm surges well below the record 13 - 14.6 meters reported. The authors concluded that the actual surge from the Bathurst Bay Cyclone may have been 3 - 5 meters. The observed inundation at 13 meters elevation, plus the observation of dolphins deposited at 15 meters above sea level, could have been caused by high waves on top of the surge, they argue. Waves on top of the surge (called "wave run-up") can reach five times the wave height at the shore for steeply fronted coasts like at Bathurst Bay. Since waves in the Bathurst Bay Cyclone could easily have been 3 meters, 15 meters of wave run-up on top of the surge is quite feasible. Since wave run-up doesn't count as surge, the status of the 1899 Bathurst Bay Hurricane as the world-record holder for storm surge is questionable. However, the event is certainly the record holder for the high water mark set by a tropical cyclone's storm surge, an important category in its own right.
Figure 1. Satellite image of Bathurst Bay, Queensland Province, Australia. The record 43 - 48 foot storm surge wave occurred on Barrow Point, marked by an "x" on the map above. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Track of the 1899 Bathurst Bay cyclone. Bathurst Bay is located at the point where the 914 mb pressure is listed. Image credit: Whittingham, 1958.
Australian storm surge records
The largest storm surges in Australia occur in Gulf of Carpentaria, due to the large expanse of shallow water there (the Gulf of Carpentaria is the large bay to the left of the zoomed-in map of Bathurst Bay shown above). According to an email I received from Australian hurricane scientist Jeffrey Callaghan, "From all reports the storm surge from the disastrous 5 March 1887 cyclone flooded almost all of Burketown (some 30km inland from the Gulf). A copy of a 1918 report to the Queensland Parliament from the Department of Harbours and Rivers Engineer refers to the sea rising to 5.5 metres above the highest spring tide level at the Albert River Heads. This level is about 8 metres (26.2 feet) above Australian Height Datum (AHD). The biggest measured surge in the Gulf of Carpenteria occurred on 30 March 1923, when a surge of 21.4 feet was recorded at a Groote Eylandt Mission".
So what is the world storm surge record if the Bathurst Bay cyclone does not qualify? Well, I haven't researched storms in the Indian Ocean or Pacific Typhoons yet, but it might be difficult to find any storm that beats Hurricane Katrina's 27.8 foot storm surge.
References:
Nott, J, N. Hayne, 2000: How high was the storm surge from Tropical Cyclone Mahina?", Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Autumn 2000.
Anonymous, 1899, The Outridge Report--The Pearling Disaster 1899: A Memorial", The Outridge Company, 1899
Whittingham, 1958, "The Bathurst Bay hurricane and associated storm surge", Australian Meteorological Magazine, No. 27, pp. 40-41. Scanned and put on-line courtesy of John McBride.
I'll have an update on Tuesday, when the latest CSU seasonal hurricane forecast comes out at 11am EDT.
.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a HIGH risk of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
I think he is referring to the strong trough that has dipped into the MidWest currently..its very strong for this time of year.
Nope.
TCNA21 RJTD 040000 CCA
CCAA 04000 47644 MORAKOT(0908) 10216 11363 14234 220// 90409=
GONI(0907) 09204 11138 13144 220// 92707=
August 4 2009
0:00 AM UTC
TS Morakot (T0908)
21.6N 136.3E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
TS Goni (T0907)
20.4N 113.8E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
LOL
Precisely Tampspinster!
Starting to come together very nicely now. Definitely something worth watching now.
Agreed
It only takes one.
AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
8.9N/30.1W
finally within zoom range
I'm expecting a westward motion in the short-term, followed by WNW, then eventually NW with a sharp deceleration in forward speed as a very significant weakness develops in the subtropical ridge at 60W.
The GFS is forecasting a rather vigorous mid- to upper-level low to detach from a shortwave trough in the next 4-6 days at around 32N 40W, which would provide a very significant weakness.
For now, though, system is still being steered by the low-level easterlies on the south side of the subtropical ridge to the north. And StormW is correct in that the ridge does not currently have a weakness. Still fairly strong all the way up to at least 300 mb.
Keeper...you got mail. ;)
When I look at the two maps (winds & shear), they seem to coincide with one another at this time. Both making the same path in movement.
Did he change his mind over the last hour?
I have some doubts as to the longevity and strength of that trough... yes there will be poleward movement... but I don't expect it to be enough to fully re curve it out to see. I see it more lingering in the CATL before it either gets picked up by another trough or moves further W. I guess we'll see how all this develops... and if this disturbance does manage to organize further and avoid that shear ahead... or at least get strong enough to survive it.
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 9N29W 11N42W 9N50W
12N61W. BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N29W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ANALYZED AT 04/0000 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 27W-33W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ENTIRE ITCZ.
Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
That is way different from 7:50.
somewhere near the Carolina's...LMAO
Apparently, well that's the TWC for you.
08E is here!
Which one????? (puts on anger face)
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT (T0908)
9:00 AM JST August 4 2009
=========================================
Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea South of Japan
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Morakot (992 hPa) located at 21.7N 135.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as northeast at 6 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Gale-force Winds
================
240 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.8N 134.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 24.3N 130.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 25.6N 126.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
NOLA.
Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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