Felicia not weakening; new African wave may develop
Hurricane Felicia has not weakened today, and continues to hold its own in spite of cool sea surface temperatures beneath it. Recent satellite imagery shows that the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye have cooled slightly, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are maintaining their strength. The appearance of the hurricane has improved some today, with the storm assuming a more symmetric appearance.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen to 24.7°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Monday morning. By Monday night, shear will rise to 20 knots, and remain above 20 knots thereafter. The higher shear combined with the relatively cool SSTs should mean that Felicia will be rapidly weakening in its final 24 hours before reaching Hawaii. Several of the computer models continue to show that this shear will be high enough to tear Felicia apart before it reaches Hawaii, though it appears to me that Felicia's current strength and annular structure will help it resist the shear enough to allow the storm to hit Hawaii as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Regardless, Felicia will bring heavy rain Hawaii beginning on Monday morning, and these rains will have the capability of causing flash floods and mudslides. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first low-level investigation of Felicia this afternoon (around 10 am Hawaiian time). The NOAA jet also flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will be used to gather data that will be fed into today's 12Z and 00Z computer model runs.
Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan yesterday, battering the island with Category 1 winds and heavy rain. The Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at the peak of the storm. Morakot killed 6 on Taiwan and 10 in the Philippines, and is headed towards a final landfall on mainland China as a tropical storm later today. Storm chaser James Reynolds intercepted the storm and posted videos on typhoonfury.com and Youtube. Morakot is still visible today on Taiwan radar.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of a spinning tropical wave leaving the coast of Africa. The image was taken at 8am EDT 8/8/09.
African tropical wave may develop
A strong tropical wave with a moderate amount of spin is moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is under about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and has sea surface temperatures beneath it of 27°C. These conditions are probably too marginal to allow development over the next two days. As the wave moves westward away from Africa over the next few days, wind shear should slowly decrease and the SSTs will warm, potentially allowing for some slow development. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all indicate the possibility that this will become a tropical depression 3 - 5 days from now. The ECMWF model forecasts that strong easterly winds over the wave will create too much shear to allow development. The wave is well south of the Saharan Air Layer, so dry air and African dust should not interfere over the next 3 - 5 days. I give the wave a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
9:00 AM JST August 9 2009
=========================================
Subject: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Japan
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 26.3N 136.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northwest at 15 knots.
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: - - -
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.1N 134.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Please don't make him bring that picture out LOL.
remember....it's bikini season....
---
oh no, don't even go there
If this amazing wave in fact becomes a threat to the coast it will take so long to get here that there is plenty of time for people to get out of the way. It's wild that a WAVE brings out so much excitement in some people. That must be because they have never had to respond to the aftermath if a storm like Rita and Katrina, I am a H-60 Flight Mechanic who had to ride out Katrina and then go out and rescue the people who were stranded. WHO COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT ONE OF THESE STORM? I look to this web site and blog for knowledgeable and informed professionals to post what is going on out there, Maybe it's time to put away all the hype, what do you think?
Yep
Look at page 23 at my post.
um daily unput?
as in you enjoy when he doesnt participate? lol
If this amazing wave in fact becomes a threat to the coast it will take so long to get here that there is plenty of time for people to get out of the way. It's wild that a WAVE brings out so much excitement in some people. That must be because they have never had to respond to the aftermath if a storm like Rita and Katrina, I am a H-60 Flight Mechanic who had to ride out Katrina and then go out and rescue the people who were stranded. WHO COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT ONE OF THESE STORM? I look to this web site and blog for knowledgeable and informed professionals to post what is going on out there, Maybe it's time to put away all the hype, what do you think?
Jeez...I wonder who.....initials W.....S......
Exactly.
lol I enjoy my unput too
Well, it is natural to find these systems fascinating and that fascination starts to bloom when a wave starts spinning this time of year. Nobody wants a storm to do what they do but it's human nature to want to safely experience the power of a hurricane.
You need firefox w/spellcheck....
It's inexperience.
Would be nice to get some "input" from the NHC...too much "unput"?
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
HENNEPIN COUNTY...
AT 833 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED IN NORTH OF MOUND.
AT 833 PM CDT... THE TORNADIC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ORONO...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
EXCELSIOR...LONG LAKE...DEEPHAVEN...WOODLAND...MINNETONKA...
WAYZATA...THE LAKE MINNETONKA AREA AND PLYMOUTH.
aul
Let's Get It Started...
I love Cuba...I love the Cuban people...I spent 3 weeks cruising Cuban waters in 1996...please leave Cuba out of this...
I've notice that since earlier today, even the QuikSCAT confirms it. Also the TPC is predicting a 1010 mb low.
Closed lower to mid level low.
Monster ??.
Just another wave to track. Let's see how it is doing in 48 hrs.
Gradual development. well what I have been observing.
yes :p
just kidding
Mid-level would be more around 500 to 600 mb.
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
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