Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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=P
LOL probably most likely answer
If it does not come at you and slap you beside your head please give us your address so we can notify a neighbor to do so for us....STOP with these silly questions......Just kidding you know.
Shucks,..its hard to mange in My Dodge Ram Truck.
One Day after a Big Hurricane,..Mobile will have to Raise that I-10 Span as Miss Did in Bay St Louis on 90.
Hopefully,not this year.
Yup, that's what you call a closed circulation!
This is a trend. 6 Z run had it off east coast of Florida, 12 Z outer banks and NE, 18 Z has it well offshore then near Bermuda - look again
haha well one day we will have a Hurricane party in the big complex up here in Monroe it will be the Wunderground extravaganza everyone is invited even you JFV i don't care the more the merrier lol
and 2am one red one orange or stay two orange at 2am and at 8am one red and one orange
Not trying to look like im grasping at straws but there is some modest convection firing on the west side, whether it will ultimately mean much I dont know.
An great evening on tap it would seem.
1. Will 99L develop convection to go with the surface closed low ?.
2. Will the feature near 14N 47W surprise us with a well defined surface low even though deep convection is missing at this time ?.
3. Will the Barbados Blob defy the NHC's forecast to dissipate and flare up again later after surviving the heat of the day ?.
Stay tuned for the answers to these and other interesting questions LOL
There is a small chance that this could happen since its cleared away some SAL.
Safety first always.. I always keep a fine edge around the Tunnel,Coming and Going.
definitely closed low with 99L at 14.2N/26W , could someone tell me if I'm right or wrong please.
Hardly a drop. If we had a few dunes this place would be a desert.
Its closed like a gas station in a hick town
find somone else to pickon WS take to much crap oh wait he WS he will allways be a Big red target"
He likes it...craves attention. Doesn't matter if it's good or bad.
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