Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
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You can say that again.
Look at shear and SAL then come back to me lol
LATTER?! YOU FAIL!
Great point, but it has been that way for a few days, if it meets the requirements of a closed low per quikscat and Dvorak it can be classified despite what future it holds.
Stay well...
It looked awesome at 5-6am. Perfectly round convection. That with an observed fully closed low. Really not a tough call at that point.
You can still see a hint of in the first frame at SSD, but not on the floater. Look at the CATL loop.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.
That plays out, it would be chaos. The insurance industry is crippled right now thanks to Gov. Christ
with the economy the way it is...a storm is the last thing anybody needs....i can just see the media and insurance companies scaring the bejeebies out of everyone...not to mention all the empty forclosed homes down south...not good at all...
Link
Do you think TD 2 will even become named?
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
TD2
AOI
Tracks are marked by red lines and circles are points of genesis
thanks so its back to fla again
They're talking about it in Tampa for sure.
I do. But at the moment im not following any models due to the lack of consistency and data. Im going to wait until tomorrow until I make a full intensity forecast and track. If the models look the same then Ill wait again.
Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.
lol
LOL...I can hear him in West Palm Beach...50 miles away!
Same here lol
TD 2* TD 1 was in May.
Right now he's in school.
Oh, and how is he offensive?
People are ready for a good story. Seems to me it's far too early to even say these storms will get named. Quiet year equals loud voices when anything forms.
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Looks like the models are trying to tell us something.
the are not telling us they are telling weatherstudent to get the heck off the east coast
that's just too dang funny...is weatherstudent JFV?? i haven't seen his scared frantic self in a while...
FINALLY 99L is a TD. Going catch up on posts.
How do you know?
very true. The local news likes nothing better than leading the newscast with the local weatherman breathlessly telling us how we're in the dreaded Cone of Uncertainty.
The sneak attack was picked up by the GFDL as well.
wonder if he took your advice about the candles...
I am quite surprised to see TD2. The NHC didn't mention anything about dry air in their discussion or outlook. They did however say that if it were to go a little bit further north than anticipated, it could be weaker. Stronger is it goes more south. No matter how much we know here, the NHC guys are the pros. I tend to think that because they didn't mention dry air/SAL it won't be a problem.
Barely..but yeah.
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