TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Yup
Keep him away from the GOM!
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 13 2009
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 21 - 27 2009
TODAYS GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP
TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS.
Hello 90L.
A) 90L becomes TD3 at 11PM
B)90L becomes TD3 at 5Am
C)90L Becomes TD 3 at 11Am
D) 90L does not become a TD At all
Regardless
I understand. It jsut seems like every thunderstorm that pops up in the Carib. or GOM is "potential trouble for the Gulf"....IDK, doesn't really matter.
:'( RIP. That is not a shock considering its very poor satellite presentation with the center fully exposed, and almost nill in the way of heavy convection. We'll see what happens over teh next few days.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE...
...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND IF THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...
Quoting Patrap:
.."I gotta Tell ya Folks,Patrap and Ike and Drak and all them wunderbloggers are right about one thing,..trouble is Brewing and now's the time to prepare for what may come along downstream in time..
Back to you Guys in the Studio"..
Keep him away from the GOM!
lol....yes keep Mr. Doom & Gloom away!!!
Currently higher than 2005.
2009
Anomaly to 2005.
The focus of this blog shall now change over to Invest 90L.
the answer is c
I would not make such a hasty conclusion about the ex td2. i believe that there is a 50/50 (at least) that it will rejuvenate, once it encounters a more favorable conditions ahead of the system. We have seen this happen on numerous occasions...it's not dead...
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LONGER TERM TROPICAL SITUATION WHICH
REMAINS VERY UNCLEAR AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSION HAVE DOWNPLAYED TD 2 INTO A WEAK SYSTEM...AND
KEEPING IT AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
SEEMINGLY GOOD NEWS...IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GOOD NEWS
REMAINS THAT A DEEP SAL LAYER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD
MEAN A MUCH CLOSER TRACK TO THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SURVIVE THE DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE...WILL TREND TOWARD ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY STILL REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF
AFRICA...WHICH HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...TAKING THE SYSTEM NE OF THE VI AND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GFS STILL TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
ISLAND AND HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS.
DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
Speaking of Fire,..I just Lit da pit here Uptown,gonna Burn some Cluckers this evening
I guessing B.
Assuming that it's the same circulation...then yes, I believe so. Could be wrong. I remember Katrina was given a new number after regeneration.
That seems the most reasonable. Just to give it time.
C.
E. Takes until 5 PM Friday or sometime Saturday.
Gale/Storm-force Winds
================
90 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.6N 125.1W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2N 127.9W - 70 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.4N 133.6W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.5N 139.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
We'll see...
regeneration of (ex) TD2 would likely happen when?
Would still be TD 2 unless it merges with another entity and the remnants can no longer be identified.
Mighty jealous! I'm in the CBD stuck at the office... booooooooo! At least we're slow so this weatherbug can take in some WU today :)
System isn't looking that great. Not going to be a TD today....
Or, they might say, "That storm sleeps with the fishes." It would be just like a tropical Luca Brasi!
I'm not sure; in the case of Katrina (genesis only of course) TD 10 was renamed TD 11 only because the disturbance that developed resulted from a portion of TD10's remnants merging with a tropical wave. Unless something like that were to happen I think they'd redesignate it as TD 2, sort of like how Ivan developed again in the Gulf and was still called Ivan.
Remember to always Heed a Evac warning,esp in a Surge Zone.
Mr And Mrs Guerra will be the first to tell ya that.
And everyone from the Brownsville to The Keys Know,..the GOM can bite ya real fast.never discount any threat till its inland.
LOL!
B
It has plenty strong convection but pressures are not low in the area, and there is little in the way of vorticy right now, based on the vorticy map.
OMG.... bill turns into ANA...lmfao
Regeneration of TD2 would most likely occur when the system get's past 50W
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