TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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PS thanks Terra ^_^
It looks much better than it did a little while ago. AND it's DMIN. It's LLC is almost closed, just a little exposed to the west.
way too soon too tell best thing too do is wait see and watch
Would that be EDT or GMT? if EDT I'll take "What is 90L/TD3 by 5am" for the win, Alex.;)
Do you think ex-TD2 is going become a depression again?
A) Yes
B) No
C) Maybe
It's a mess right now - gots a long way to go - convection needs to contract towards the center, it won't be this wide in a few days
I know you weren't. I was just throwing in my opinion on it.
Amazing that it's almost August 14th and>>>0-0-0....still.
dude!!!! all thats missing is the convection which will muild during dmax. stop being so pecimestic and pretending that you don't want it to develop. it is huge and needs some time to get going. after that i think there will be some rapid intensification.
oh no'sss we have a joker system on our hands...
Uh I'll go with c just to be on the safe side =D
wow, we had a''Grumpy old man'' & "Smiley face" generated by the same system already! What's next? I hate to make predictions!
LMFAO!!!!
Probably not.
Hey.. I've been here for a few years lurking.. and reading WS comments I've been wondering could he be dyslexic?
This season is off to a slow start, but by next week this blog will be going nuts with all the storms forming. 90L scares me but I'm still weary of TD2 as well as the wave near Cuba. I reckon it's a race to see which of these storms/waves will be "Ana"
-goes back to lurking-
that quikscat was from early this morning.
I don't know. It will come down to timing. The models handle the trough differently. ECMWF most aggressive. CMC least aggressive. GFS in between.
Going with B. 200 mb flow doesn't look promising.
?
Pessimistic.
Pretending? I could care less if it develops.
I don't think there are enough northerly winds on the western side of the circulation to justify calling it closed. The circulation is quite broad at this point.
C
so TampaSpin may want to re move that photo or he may end up being ban for 24hr that photo is not posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
am sure its find if we dont have any thing too talk about but its not find right now
well then this blog is not for you.
it was from 3:12 PM EST.
Now that you mention it, it is. It does still need to tighten the circulation and build and organize convection.
Why? What does it mean?
its the tropics ...and its august anything can happen anywhere anytime anyplace
After 21,000+ posts, I'll hang around.
A)YES
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