TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Late model intensity.
yes IT dose have a chance it just needs a good D-MAX but already it is starting to organize
No comment.. wow.
A lot of folks up here in the panhandle call it L A....lower Alabama..I live 15 miles from the state line....
they look very similar
TD2
90L
AOI
and that tells you 90L current size is irrelevant to its long term future...
it would slow to organize in the near term
On this site. Link
yea thanks, bu I will reply later on.
Besides the latitude, is there really such a place as upper Alabama? (j/k)
Dang CMC keeps wanting to take us out! Heck, we need rain and all, but I'm thinking most of the people with blue tarps would rather the CMC just boogie that thing somewhere else :-P.
ur psychic?
Wow, that's quite, um... specific, for a over a WEEK AWAY.
We will not know what impact 90l will have on the CONUS until it gets near the Antilles, and even then we won't have good certainty until 3 days out.
..Back to you guys in the Studio"...
southal being no exagerration. a town less than 10 minutes from here is literally called florala aka florida/alabama .. You could just as easily change my post name to northflwx and be nearly as accurate =P
irc.hurricanehollow.org
One of the biggest waves Ive seen since 2007.
Looks like the anticyclone continues to reposition itself over the LLC.
LOL...
Looks like convection is firing up a little near the COC of 90L...Link
It's really only elongated over a 40 mile stretch. 99L/TD2 was similarly elongated a couple of days ago.
I pay $5 a year for membership....I'm having no problems...haven't had a one.
Quick Update today since little has changed from yesterdays update...
Do we stick a fork in TD2 now? Well, the NHC is still tracking it and nearly all the models continue to forecast that it will become a named storm. On the other hand, it was just downgraded to a remnant low and it looks pathetic on satellite right now so what is the call... I would like to monitor the area for a bit longer before passing final judgment. If it can hang on a few more days conditions for regeneration should improve, HWFR and NGP favor this scenario. CMC, GFS and GFDL drop this system over the next few days and from what I see now that seems more likely.
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same here
An area called chunchula Northwest of saraland.
Moved down here to attend USA for Met school.
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I'm running Malwarebytes' Antimalware which I've had a lot of success with.
Same.
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