TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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ROFLMAO on that one for sure and i am darned glad my mouth wadnt full too!
Some of the models, like GFS, have been our primary operational model for more than 5 years, but are constantly undergoing tweaks.
HWRF is one big tweak waiting to happen, as well.
There have been some new models, especially by the Japanese mets, that have been able to competently simulate cyclogenesis, the track, and intensity of an observed TC. It will take years before research level technology is incorporated into our operational models. They must be numerically stable, reliably offer an skill improvement over more than one hurricane season, and other testing before they will be used.
That Japanese model, NICAM, is the most promising one I have seen lately.
tropics heating up so i decided i better pay yall a visit since this blog keeps me informed very well
LOL!!! Guess you're right about that!
This weekend folks.... everyone should brush up and get those supplies, check those shutters IF this comes your way
Didn't say TD2 is clearing anything, I said 90L was clearing the way for TD2 to stop sucking in so much dry air.
latest models
I have learned a lot and have enjoyed doing so over the course of the last few years.
It's dangerous to play darts with a naked anything.
L8R.
good for you, keeper. That version of stormtop (not stormno, he's the real one this year) that version of stormtop that just posted showed up here right before Katrina.
Fully loaded and ready, keep. Good for you.
This weekend folks.... everyone should brush up and get those supplies, check those shutters IF this comes your way
How do i tune into that?
Some of the models go back 10 years or more, but they have been improved along the way and are still being improved.
For the future, NOAA has a project, NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Every thing we know about all the models is that the least predictable factor is intensity.
Geezz
He is chewing out everyone on the Barometer Bob show...
Was always told, higher foward speed storms are harder to "recurve". Right or Wrong?
Jeez.
Nice...just in time for my move back to Florida.... Tetrapak milk is on sale for $1.00 here..guess I'll bring some with!
Did Tropical Storm Guillermo have a eye earlier? Or were the clouds just rotating fast?
Link
These are my percentages for a CONUS hit for 90L-
Recurve- 30%
Florida east coast- 35%
The rest of the east coast- 30%
Dissipate- 4%
GOM- 1%
We also need to watch TD 2 as regeneration is possible, and it could possibly threaten Florida as models are suggesting.
I have empty water jugs in my living room to fill up with (ew New Orleans) tap water in case of a hurricane or swine flu.
If you live in NE caribbean stay tune PR and the island above 15N.
Is that right?Wow.
NOLA tap water kills swine flu virus?...useful info!
Scary :(
I think SE Florida is probable but really it could anywhere on the coast. If it were to hit Florida it is most likely it would recurve up the state like Frances and Jeanne and not make it in the GOM. But, as far as the CONUS goes, I'm more worried about Florida since that would be the first place to be hit and there'll be more than enough time to worry about another landfall.
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