TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Lay off it. I don't really like the polls either, but there is nothing else to do but wait for the model runs and look at the past week of synoptics. Not much else to do at the moment. And, no, watching the wave go through d-min isn't worth watching constantly, either.
This isn't nado predicting when the wall cloud is already up, this is TCs when there isn't anything there but a wave 3k+ miles from any land in front of it.
Yup.
Anyway, all the panic about where 90L (for God's sake it's not even a depression yet) will eventually hitreally ticks me off..
Caicos Retired Sailor.. i've always wanted to visit the turks and caicos when is the best time of year to visit?
Maybe you are the one still in high school. I got a lot of weather experience and there is nothing wrong with trying to do a long range forecast...if you are wrong you are wrong but you can learn from it. How do you think we will ever get better or develop the capabilities to make long range forecasts? You stick your neck out, make a call and see what does and doesnt pan out. Chill out.
After seeing next post...my own post needed to go.
Wasn't that bad, mind you, just not tasteful in the context of the next post by DM...
I'm stating an opinion. If you don't like that then you're in the wrong place.
A) PSLhokie is an idiot
b) PSLhokie is just not a patient person
c) PSLhokie needs some lythium
d) PSLhokie wants us to all think he knows his stuff in is thus better than all of us mere mortals.
I am all for educated guesses and you have to agree with me that lot of people on here are not that educated when it comes to metereology - they've probably learned a few things from watching the TWC...!
IF you have formally studied weather than obviously this wasn't targeted to you...so YOU CHILL mate lol... PEACE!
Only recommendation I would have is to avoid July, August, & September.
CRS
all of the above
lol
Where do you go to find those things?
That requires some scripting. Some folks might have it turned off intentionally...or visiting from a smart phone with scripts disabled.
HAHA, is that what taught you
Well said
yeah that sounds right
big system needs time to develop
I don't. Dean was much farther south. Plus, there was a huge high in 2007 that forced all storms due west into the Caribbean; it's basically the oppisite this year.
LOL
00Z GFS Ensemble runs look very different than 6 hours ago; which goes to show that even the models don't know squat!!
Whatever dude...think what you want. People know what I do and where I went to school. I do 2 week forecasts all the time and have to say 100% or 0% that something is going to happen. If you make a forecast right now...pick a spot using sound reasoning on where 90L is going to hit, track it and see what factors caused you to be right or wrong, you might actually learn something and get better at it.
All I see are the mis-fit toys...think toy story next door neighbor.
that is what I said
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