TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Haha, yup. It'll continue west for awhile.
What do you thing?
Tropical wave interacting with an upper level low. Divergent flow aloft is helping to generate deep convection. No threat for tropical cyclogenesis, but some flooding rains are possible across Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
i remember someone on here mentioned not too long ago that they were looking to start a hurricane/tropical weather related site. I forgot who that was and I had meant to send them a message and let them know I have a few good domains that I have been waiting to do something with but haven't gotten around to yet. If you're still out there shoot me a WU-Mail when you get a chance. Thanks!
Local weather here has been playing up 90L and the wave over Puerto Rico tonight. Hopefully the wave won't develop and we'll get some nice rains here this weekend.
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one noted how big 90L is ???
Yes Taz, I brought this up 2 nights ago. We may see another well defined tight swirl Felicia type suck dry a too big & blobby to get turning Enrique type. TD2 still has a nice swirl, keeping just enough convection to get by but now slowing the forward speed as 90L gets closer because it's forward speed is faster. By tonight's quikscat 90L has a ways to go to a closed low. Looked like 02L was tapping into 90L, the pic up top that Masters hung shows it well. Hard to tell now since the sun went down. I haven't ruled it out as a good possibiblity. Something with defined lower spin & structure ramps up way faster than a huge, cumbersome, wet blob. Remember too that many models don't do well when 2 storms are close together, combined with how weak they are & it's best to not use models as gospel..
Taz you have not read my updates....been saying that for 2 days. TD2 is much better organized than 90L.
Yeah, everyone has opinions. This is all just speculation until we have a better idea of where it will go.
What do you thing?
Good to see you too. I see my avitar did not make it on your map last season. Do you still have the map active? I think that was you that did that last season. As far as 90 I'm looking at the NHC web site and they have been pretty informational so far.
Down the road, that might be possible, but not right now.
Yes i do....it just needs some moisture to tap into...and it won't need much...as long as the low level stays together the way it is....yes.
The main satellite most images come from is blacked out right now due to a station keeping maneuver, they are moving the satellite into its normal position. It drifts over time and they have to correct the drift.
I am not here to save lives. That's not my job. Sure, it would be nice if I did, but I doubt my opinion will save someone's life.
Good advice. Not doomcasting, but anything is possible...
Hurricane Katrina formed as Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas on August 23, 2005 as the result of an interaction of a tropical wave and the remains of Tropical Depression Ten.
It shall fade with every frame...pfffft coming soon to a wave near you.
For right now, this all remains pure speculation, but my thinking lies pretty much with the 18Z GFDL track but not as intense since it will take some time to organize into a tropical cyclone with the immense size.
One moment huge convective cold cloud tops, then boom, gone are the clouds.
That's what I love about this... so unpredictable! As in full of surprises.
I'm just here 'cause I can't stand to watch Greta van Susteren...
I think it has a chance of develop before it reaches the caribbean and looking at the 850 mb vorticity in the last 6hours till now if you look at it close you can see that the vorticity has increased
I'm not a doctor but I play one on tv.
I've noticed some of the models indicating a slight Fujiwhara effect between the two lows... thought it was interesting, but didn't think much of it beyond that.
Dude, you get into the character that is your avatar a little too well.
Long term swell forecasts for Puerto Rico bring 15 feet swells near by Wednesday, I imagine from the remnants of TD2.
Other interesting models develop an Apocalyptocane behind current 90L.
Speculate, shmeculate!
And even when they do fade,some..all that wave action and energy has to go somewhere,unfortunately its usually a Coastline.
Be ready,Have a Plan..Know what you are going to do NOW.
Hey, I see you are from Marco Island...I am from Cape Coral. What news are you watching? I was watching nbc-2 last night and they said that Ana was named...I came onto WU all kinds of confused. I am hoping for some good rains too! My garden is dead!
And if you look further back, you will see the diurnal cycle. that wave had an increase in vorticity 24 hours ago, too...then decreased. Will be repeating.
If TD2 gets stronger than the models are predicting, will that create a weakness in the high that 90L will follow further to the north?
TD2
90L
AOI
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