Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Orleans hit on the GFS 00z

Quoting JLPR:
150hrs 00z GFS



O_O

Yes ,very close to our shores,here in Puerto Rico, according to GFS.

Quoting jurakantaino:

Yes ,very close to our shores,here in Puerto Rico, according to GFS.

yep =\ not good

no trough on 00z GFS

Quoting Drakoen:
New Orleans hit on the GFS 00z

Drak the GFS has not really wavered to much on that track for the last several runs.

I'm only up to 174 hours lol.. You guys are fast

Quoting Drakoen:

thats not good

Quoting JLPR:


Well that kinda takes away my tranquility =\

Thar, there goes my peace of mind. It's too early still, but I guess that gives me plenty of time to get my stomach ready for a couple of weeks of canned food and warm beverages. Ugh.

This is going to get nasty....really nasty possibly.

Quoting JLPR:
150hrs 00z GFS



O_O

GFS has been forrescasting a Cat 3 cane over PR in August 20 over the past 4-5 days if this came true will be an amaizing performanse of this model. Thriler days ahead here at PR, Sadly.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Drak the GFS has not really wavered to much on that track for the last several runs.

The GFS 12z wanted to send this thing riding up the eastern seaboard. No long range consistency. It's just for fun to look at the GFS that far out

Quoting reedzone:
I'm only up to 174 hours lol.. You guys are fast

same here only 30 frames lol but in the bahaamas so far

Drak the good thing about that last GFS model run striking NOLA is that there is a better than 90% chance it will not happen.... ATT

However it is interesting that there is no longer a forecasted trough along the east coast...

Just can't count on them in mid to late August.

I've been home all week with an unpleasant summer sinus infection that corresponded with the hottest days of the summer. My house thermostat didn't go below 82 all Monday and Tuesday with the air on full blast. Thankfully, I have had the pleasure of reading all these posts, many I find informative, many I find witty and entertaining. It's going to be an interesting week indeed at my office coming up. I'm the public information officer for the local Dept. of Emergency Management. It is my job (among many, many others) to explain the dangers of storms to the community. I do press releases daily, but the tropical statements I do for EM are always the most complicated and require the most research. If I was eligible for overtime, which I'm not, imagine how much I'd get for reading this blog night and day, trying to gain insight and multiple perspectives. However, it is not about money, it is about the safety of my community and its residents. Go to Google Earth and look up Seaside Heights, New Jersey (08751). We are a barrier island with NO protection at all. In fact, this area used to be about 10 feet higher one hundred years ago, but the sand dunes were bulldozed, as they were considered valueless at that time, and were victims of exploitation: their destruction fueled by the need for motels and bungalows to house tourists, our main economic driving force. Only one tiny section of our town has a remnant of these dunes, and the difference is striking. Additionally, the location where my home is sits on top of the Old Cranberry Inlet (wikipedia it), which was formed and closed by hurricanes. If a big one comes this way, I'm gathering up my animals, my computers, my clothes and personal effects, the few pieces of antique furniture I have, my comfy, expensive bed, and will ride it out safely at my brother's house on the mainland. I wouldn't even bother to board up here. This is a rental, and anything I'd leave behind would be crap I couldn't care less about, and the physicality of the building is not my responsibility. Even if I boarded, chances are others would not, and wind would get into the complex regardless. If it all blows away, I guess I'll have to buy better furniture, and set up headquarters once again in another location. On the flip-side, I like where I live. I have nice neighbors, and have an oceanview from the right angle...stand on a box, crane your neck to see it, lol. I love to wake up and hear the ocean's roar and smell the salt air. I love it here, but always have known that I must realize for all the good I've enjoyed, it could all go "poof" faster than the current year TD2! My heart goes out to others around here, who do not have a plan, or the convenience of lots of nearby relatives to seek refuge. If it was terrible, I could stay with my brother for as long as I needed until I could re-establish a new locale. What would others do? That's what bothers me the very most. I'm not going to think about that tonight. The next five days are expected to be picture-perfect. My family is in the beach parking/shower/food & sundries concession business. It should be a banner weekend, and I guess I will be stockpiling as much cash as I can, for I might be needing it. Let's hope the Lord blesses and spares us.

Quoting jurakantaino:

Yes ,very close to our shores,here in Puerto Rico, according to GFS.

I saw it better and I think it makes landfall between Ponce and Salinas on that run =\

Quoting Drakoen:
New Orleans hit on the GFS 00z

link?

I'm still thinking this will be an East Coast event, not a GOM event. Lets let the models do there swaying back and forth, in 5-7 days, when it reaches the Islands, we will have a better idea what the track will be.

Quoting reedzone:
I'm only up to 174 hours lol.. You guys are fast

me too
jejeje

I'm not buying a GOM storm until I see much more consistency, but it may be starting a trend.

But, it seems the storm would first hit Florida before the GOM.

where evere 90L is going to hit evere one is going to be feeling it this could be biger then IKE

Quoting alpha992000:
Quoting JLPR:


Well that kinda takes away my tranquility =\

Thar, there goes my peace of mind. It's too early still, but I guess that gives me plenty of time to get my stomach ready for a couple of weeks of canned food and warm beverages. Ugh.

yeah that one of the things I hate more xD
I may end up trying to turn the TV on if powers doesn't come back fast

Like with Jeanne's whoops and we were without power for awhile

45 frames done ok tip of fla first then the gulf 8th run for fla so far

Katrina:

Quoting JLPR:


I saw it better and I think it makes landfall between Ponce and Salinas on that run =\

Well, remember Hugo. Wasn't it supposed to graze the South? We all know how that ended up. Not good either way.

Here's a quick animation to show how the previous 15-GFS forecast runs have evolved over the past 3-4 days for 90L.



Other GFS/HWRF/GFDL/WRF maps

i no this is way far out in time for saying this but i think any one from FL to LA needs too watch this this storm looks biger then IKE so evere one will be feeling this

Quoting Drakoen:
Katrina:

eeeeeeek

This is not good......LOOK at the GOM it is like a time bomb ready to explode...32deg celisus..WOW

The GFS track is very similar to Georges track in 98

Thanks for the awesome graphics on your site Ryan.

Quoting JLPR:


yeah that one of the things I hate more xD
I may end up trying to turn the TV on if powers doesn't come back fast

Like with Jeanne's whoops and we were without power for awhile

Heck, yesterday many were left without power and it was just some rain and thunderstorms. Another Cat 3 like Georges... nah, I don't even want to think about that. O_o

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures:

here comes $5 gas

Don't mention Hugo... I think there is some old theories about the SC coast and hurricanes on years that end in 9s.... Grace,59, Hugo,89, floyd,99, and there were storms in 69 and 79,although not as big...

Quoting alpha992000:


Heck, yesterday many were left without power and it was just some rain and thunderstorms. Another Cat 3 like Georges... nah, I don't even want to think about that. O_o

yeah I lost power yesterday but it was only for one or two minutes

another Georges = No Puerto Rico

with the economy like it is that would wipe us off the Caribbean =S

Quoting chsstormgirl:
Don't mention Hugo... I think there is some old theories about the SC coast and hurricanes on years that end in 9s.... Grace,59, Hugo,89, floyd,99, and there were storms in 69 and 79,although not as big...

That was mentioned yesterday by chucktown...it seems 9's are not good for SC!!

Who else thinks TWC has totally sold out now, with Al Roker and NBC? Roker is known in my area as an NYC met, but since he's on the Today Show, I guess he's a nation-wide personality as well. Still, I don't consider him a great meteorologist, rather a likable man with a good voice and great teleprompter skills. And as far as TWC itself, I worked with them in 2007 for a hurricane special, and it and I appeared on air that May (it's on youtube, my name is jackbuster). All I have to say is that the people they sent me knew absolutely zero about tropical weather, and that's when I knew that TWC had gone down like the Titanic. I mean they didn't even KNOW who John Hope was when I told them he was my idol for twenty years. I'll leave you with this, "Head On, Apply Directly to the Forehead".

Quoting TampaSpin:
This is not good......LOOK at the GOM it is like a time bomb ready to explode...32deg celisus..WOW

Yeah, I REALLY hope nothing gets or forms there (virtually impossible though). It certainly looks spooky.

Quoting JLPR:
The GFS track is very similar to Georges track in 98

JLPR-How are you,have not seen you post in a long time.

Quoting hydrus:
JLPR-How are you,have not seen you post in a long time.

I have been here all week =P
I just don't post as much as I used to... University xD

The date the last gfs run has 90L approaching the US is 00Z august 23. Thats only 9 days from now. That means this thing must be really moving. I know it has to move quickly to miss the trof and that seems to be quick enough. This next week will be very interesting.

the Admins for dran sure will start baning if that storm got in too the gulf if any one where too get off key


so has soon has 90L starts cooking the Admins start baning


all so this blog will be come flooded in a few days when 90L starts cooking



so if you dont want to get ban stay on key

Quoting sctonya:


That was mentioned yesterday by chucktown...it seems 9's are not good for SC!!

I'm thinking it's just an old wives tale! At least, I'm telling myself that...

yes most hurricanes from the south are the one that affect the island the strongest ,crossing the island and exciting north west.You might find this interestingLink

I was at Pensacola Beach yesterday and the water was extremely warm. I know it's shallow there, but by the looks of all the SST maps that have been posted and listening to NOAA's marine report, 90L could be one long fuse for the powder keg

Quoting JLPR:


yeah I lost power yesterday but it was only for one or two minutes

another Georges = No Puerto Rico

with the economy like it is that would wipe us off the Caribbean =S

Well, I keep saying a hurricane it's the only thing left to happen here this year. In between the economy, the AH1N1 and the recent tremors being felt near the Island, I'm pretty sure PR is gonna end up "disappearing" one way or another. Pick your favorite destination, sadly we might have to get outta here soon.