TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here's a link to latest AFD's for San Juan...Link
Mornin' Ike...LOL, you're the only other person I see that's as avid an AFD reader as I am :P :P
What? Of course a larger hurricane will cause damage to a larger area, but a Cat 4 will cause far more devestation than a large Cat 2 even if it is over a smaller area.
CRS
SE WRF Link
From the NHC:
"A Category 4 hurricane would have winds between 131 and 155 mph and, on the average, would usually be expected to cause 100 times the damage of the Category 1 storm."
Probably not going to turn until it hits the Gulf...
Good morning...don't see much mention from any weather office out to Amarillo....Chicago...about a strong trough the end of next week.
Enhanced IR
I don't know about that. Ike caused an insane amount of damage for a cat 2. Because he was so big and pushing so much water. He had cat 4 storm surge or higher. Now the winds may be a different story or may be not. We took a direct hit from a cat 3 that took out 50% of the tree canopy. Yes the wind damage was a lot worse. However Ike was a hundred miles away and he brought down a healthy 20% more.
More rains...lol...don't need any.
Thanks...I didn't know how to do that.
ex TD2
hmmmm brings back memories of David in 79 (red track) Floyd in 99 (ensemble members to the right)
and the "main blog bunch" LOL
Been lurking here a little over the past week; not really posting.
It appears I will be lurking a
lot more in the next week or so.
Sure hope those storms do turn out to be fish storms
and do not threaten any of us along the coast.
Keep the info coming,
it is much appreciated!
Happy Friday,
Gams
I don't see this one turning out-to-sea for at least 7-8 days.
Maybe I'll be wrong and the ECMWF is correct.
exactly, a larger storm would be a very dangerous one, could you imagine the amount of damage Andrew would have caused had it been the size of Katrina if it hit SFLA? We'd get tropical storm force gusts all the way up through central florida.
Do me a favor and look back at Hurricane Georges. I seem to remember that storm starting out as a very big wave in the same area. Curious to see if the current computer models are anything close to it's old track.
Thanks, at work.
Link
0 - 0 - 0
continues...
Still exposed to the west.
Like Dean '07. That anti-cyclone will help some.
I'm somewhat surprised they kept it at orange.
Thanks guys, good info. I agree that the size and movement speed is important.
I am surpirsed at the ratio given by NHC...100 times?
Maybe, Dr.Masters could be requested to explain this a bit further at some point?
Dr.Masters, would you mind doing an article on this sometime, unless you already have and post the link?
Thank you.
No problem. :) I noticed that too. "TX/LA"
makes me sit up and take notice. Lol. Better than an alarm clock. We're a little jumpy round here. But I agree. I would feel a lot better for everyone if all the models kept taking it out to sea. I'm not quite at the nail biting stage. But I'll probably need to borrow someone elses by next week. Lol
Also of note, ex-TD2 still has good vorticity and remains stacked 850-500mb. With better conditions to the west, I'm not so sure that I'm ready to call it dead in terms of a little redevelopment.
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