Ana, Bill, and Claudette--a rare early season triple threat
After an unusually slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics exploded into action this weekend. We have a rare triple threat this afternoon--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This afternoon, the Hurricane Hunters confirmed than Tropical Storm Claudette had formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show a small but well-organized tropical storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Claudette has built an eyewall that is 1/3 complete on the east side of the center. Some moderate wind shear from upper-level southwesterly winds is keeping Claudette from forming much heavy thunderstorm activity on its west side. Most of the rain is on the right side of the storm, and regions to the left of where Claudette comes ashore will get only a maximum of 1 - 2 inches of rain. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops continuing to expand near the storm's center.
Figure 1. Current short-range radar out of the Florida Panhandle.
Claudette developed literally overnight, and has enough time over water to be a 60 - 65 mph tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle. Claudette reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. By the time Claudette makes landfall, it will have been in existence just 18 hours since the first advisory. This is not enough time to strengthen into a hurricane. If Claudette had had another twelve hours over the 30°C waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it would likely have been a hurricane. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 - 5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from Claudette. Inland flooding from heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.
Ana near death
The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Storm Ana, and have found that the storm is very disorganized, and may not survive another day. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's very rapid forward motion of 20 - 25 mph has stretched out the storm's circulation from circular to elliptical. This non-circular flow around the center has made the heavy thunderstorm activity less organized, and it may be difficult for the storm to hold together much longer. The outer rain showers from Ana are now on radar out of Martinique.
Nearly all of the computer models forecast Ana will dissipate over the next two days. If there is anything left of the storm by the time it encounters the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, that should finish Ana off. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Bill continues strengthening
Tropical Storm Bill continues to gather strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bill has developed a core region of heavy thunderstorms that should be fairly impervious to the dry Saharan air to its northwest, and the storm should be able to start building an eyewall tonight.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range for the next three days. With Sea Surface Temperatures at 27.5°C, and ocean heat content sharply increasing 2 - 3 days from now, Bill should be able to intensify to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. At that time, some increasing shear may limit further intensification.
The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET model, which was resisting forecasting the northward turn, has now joined the other models in its latest 12Z run. The main drama with Bill this week will be to see how close it passes to Bermuda. Several models have Bill passing within 200 miles of Bermuda on Saturday. It is too early to be confident that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yes and yes on both counts. i was about to ask what time zone do you live in, or you could tell me in UTC (its easier). lol
Lol.. I live in Florida, so it is 4:03 am.. I actually already slept for awhile tonight, so I'm not very tired at the moment.. I woke up around 2:30.
finally today i get to meet her.
I think whatever it is will move west into LA and not follow it's mother. The high you speak of is building westward. IMO
i thought you meant a weather vane
as in a barb
hurricanetropical depression with 12-24 hours. You heard it here first! :POk, probably not.
Another way of looking at things.
*appears* to be slowing down and more westward
but you have to *really*
lol
Really? Actually, it's just difficult to use.
Station in the Virgin Island just had a outer band come through and the winds were 39mph sustain while
a buoy is now getting hit with a band and the reported winds are 45mph.
Not sure how accurate the data is but it is still interesting..
ty for the info
actually those winds are expected as the recon found 50mph winds in quite some places to the north this afternoon - i mean, sunday afternoon edt
That Virgin Island spot just updated again..
Winds are now 47mph sustain.
Remember that the storm is moving 26 mph, and will therefore artificially increase the sustained winds.
people in PR in for a surprise.
anna
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
That is the far outer band too and another buoy has picked up the same wind speed..
Like I said interesting data, but I am not sure how accurate it is..
Technically, it's called a satellite "eclipse", and it doesn't happen every night, only during at 48 day period centered around the vernal and autumnal equinox. The sensors are turned off to conserve power and prevent damage to the sensors due to accidentally imaging the sun.
it would explain as to why nhc forecasts it to be 30KT intensity, when there are 45knot barbs. Because Claudette, which i think was moving slower (someone help me out here) had 50-55kt barbs IIRC, and thats what it was forecasted to be.
yeap shes gaing alot more convection at this hour if she keeps this up the cone may get adjusted further north at the nhc imo
sounds like a loooooong way to texas. and you don't want a tough low getting to the GOM.
hope for rain, yes, but not for a cane...
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.
bill might be going further south as expaected wi;ll this be trend for days to come ?
in ponce the quiet is unnerving, nothing yet
ok i need someone to point out the weakness in the ridge at 50N that is "evident" by NHC. because right now i see a dangerous beast gaining half the longitude than before and equal fast latitude...
convection is now building to the south of her could ana be pulling a fast one on us and fool everyone
NOGAPS and the UKMET has Bill as a florida-south carolina storm.
Looks like they sense Bill wont pick up the trough. Initially the UKMET was the only one that was consistent, now the NOGAPS is agreeing with a slam into the Bahamas/Florida.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php?&forecast=plotsystemmodels&storms=&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=1&pn=1& region=NT&year=2009&eventnum=3&hwvstormid=3&size=
SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-MOST
PERIPHERY OF THE SAN JUAN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
DURING THE EVENING. BILL IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY A SUFFICIENT DISTANCE SO AS TO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA HAVE
PASSED THROUGH SAINT CROIX LEAVING 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN AND GUSTS
TO 31 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN AND ALL SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AROUND 26 MPH. GIVEN THE PACE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE
COVERAGE IT HAS NOT SEEMED NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BLASTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SUFFICIENTLY QUICKLY SUCH THAT VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT ANTIGUA REACHED 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OF ANY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY APPEAR REASONABLE.
lol... yeah, droughts suck.
but the metro area of puerto rico is also to fault. since i moved to the south, i haven't had a day of lack of water in a year. same goes for the power.
both go out at least once a week in the metro.
there are also like 2.5 million people densely packed in a small area, true dat
others may follow on the next run imo it not going to be as cut aand dry as expected
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