Ana, Bill, and Claudette--a rare early season triple threat
After an unusually slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics exploded into action this weekend. We have a rare triple threat this afternoon--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This afternoon, the Hurricane Hunters confirmed than Tropical Storm Claudette had formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show a small but well-organized tropical storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Claudette has built an eyewall that is 1/3 complete on the east side of the center. Some moderate wind shear from upper-level southwesterly winds is keeping Claudette from forming much heavy thunderstorm activity on its west side. Most of the rain is on the right side of the storm, and regions to the left of where Claudette comes ashore will get only a maximum of 1 - 2 inches of rain. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops continuing to expand near the storm's center.
Figure 1. Current short-range radar out of the Florida Panhandle.
Claudette developed literally overnight, and has enough time over water to be a 60 - 65 mph tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle. Claudette reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. By the time Claudette makes landfall, it will have been in existence just 18 hours since the first advisory. This is not enough time to strengthen into a hurricane. If Claudette had had another twelve hours over the 30°C waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it would likely have been a hurricane. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 - 5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from Claudette. Inland flooding from heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.
Ana near death
The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Storm Ana, and have found that the storm is very disorganized, and may not survive another day. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's very rapid forward motion of 20 - 25 mph has stretched out the storm's circulation from circular to elliptical. This non-circular flow around the center has made the heavy thunderstorm activity less organized, and it may be difficult for the storm to hold together much longer. The outer rain showers from Ana are now on radar out of Martinique.
Nearly all of the computer models forecast Ana will dissipate over the next two days. If there is anything left of the storm by the time it encounters the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, that should finish Ana off. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Bill continues strengthening
Tropical Storm Bill continues to gather strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bill has developed a core region of heavy thunderstorms that should be fairly impervious to the dry Saharan air to its northwest, and the storm should be able to start building an eyewall tonight.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range for the next three days. With Sea Surface Temperatures at 27.5°C, and ocean heat content sharply increasing 2 - 3 days from now, Bill should be able to intensify to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. At that time, some increasing shear may limit further intensification.
The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET model, which was resisting forecasting the northward turn, has now joined the other models in its latest 12Z run. The main drama with Bill this week will be to see how close it passes to Bermuda. Several models have Bill passing within 200 miles of Bermuda on Saturday. It is too early to be confident that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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On its present path, Ana should be broken up further by the Dominican Republic. Unless it can somehow transfer enough energy to the north of Hispaniola, all it should be is a tropical disturbance. If the energy transfer takes place, it could regenerate some in the southern Bahamas. And, that's an interesting convergence zone approaching the Bahamas from the east, probably due at least in part by what's left of Ana.
Bill's recent path will probably cause the computer models to shift its future path to the left some. I would think that Bill will still miss the U.S., but that's a little more uncertain right now.
Looks like we're getting a lot of rain? Radar looks nasty, but I still have 2 out of 3 servers up and running at this hour over there. What's up with all the moisture still out in the GOM? Is it all going to start heading east now? It certainly doesn't look to be heading N in the IR pics...
Yes, we have some areas that are vulnerable to flooding. People are aware of what is happening and hopefully most will make the right decision if they need to leave their homes for any reason. Right where I live I am pretty safe. Some streets might be flooded but I will be ok here. Lets hope this pass quickly. What actually worries me a bit is Bill. I will be at ease once it is in a higher altitude compared to PR's.
71 degrees outside with rain.
Link
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
From what I've read that blob is a mid-level circulation.
well if so far the models havent been affected by Bill's somewhat unexpected movement, then why would they change now?
dr. lyons said that we should be careful if this thing stays weak and the trough isn't as strong it could affect the islands.
2450 StormW "I'm looking at things right now...still pulling up my 12 or so sites. I will say this...if he isn't moving west right now...then I need a new compass. Still could steer away, but I think NHC is gonna have to shift the track left.
If HurricaneBill continues to follow the same path as it has between 03GMT and 09GMT, it's gonna run (the red line) through Montserrat into SantoDomingo,DominicanRepublic
Yes, the tracks will be going back and forth and the tension builds up. Bill is a mean and scary looking storm lol and I dont want it near PR lol. Nah, its a beautiful storm but I really hope its a "fish" like some people call it.
link plz?
Just amazing.
We have had no inclement weather due to Claudette over here on the Central East Coast of Florida. Our chance of rain went down here yesterday and it was a nice afternoon.
I think it is 11am, but I could be wrong.
It'll wind up in the GOM. Front coming down the end of the week sets up another scenario.
Here's the extended discussion from Birmingham,AL...talking about the front...
"LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...THEN TAPER POPS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE FRONT MOVING THOUGH. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING
STORMS IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WE WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.".........
Ana should get picked up by that front.
Its certainly possible, the HIGH to its north certainly hasn't weakened
Link
06Z HWRF
Link
Morning Storm,
Looking at the GOES Floater IR, I'm seeing similar. Any ideas?
GOM bound.
Blob looks headed for DR/Haiti then to western Cuba.
I AGREE
She is a stubborn little gal.
Thanks
Looks like Bermuda might get wiped off the map by Bill.
He MAY have a northerly component, but it's not much at all. Looking at the last frames on IR, it seems like 275 to maybe 280.
The circulation is in lower Alabama, but there's a lot of moisture still out in the GOM. Take a look at the radar page for a good pic of what's going on...
Looks more like wwnw
Think the NHC needs to adjust the track back west a little....they see the front though...
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