Ana, Bill, and Claudette--a rare early season triple threat
After an unusually slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics exploded into action this weekend. We have a rare triple threat this afternoon--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This afternoon, the Hurricane Hunters confirmed than Tropical Storm Claudette had formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show a small but well-organized tropical storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Claudette has built an eyewall that is 1/3 complete on the east side of the center. Some moderate wind shear from upper-level southwesterly winds is keeping Claudette from forming much heavy thunderstorm activity on its west side. Most of the rain is on the right side of the storm, and regions to the left of where Claudette comes ashore will get only a maximum of 1 - 2 inches of rain. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops continuing to expand near the storm's center.
Figure 1. Current short-range radar out of the Florida Panhandle.
Claudette developed literally overnight, and has enough time over water to be a 60 - 65 mph tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle. Claudette reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. By the time Claudette makes landfall, it will have been in existence just 18 hours since the first advisory. This is not enough time to strengthen into a hurricane. If Claudette had had another twelve hours over the 30°C waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it would likely have been a hurricane. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 - 5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from Claudette. Inland flooding from heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.
Ana near death
The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Storm Ana, and have found that the storm is very disorganized, and may not survive another day. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's very rapid forward motion of 20 - 25 mph has stretched out the storm's circulation from circular to elliptical. This non-circular flow around the center has made the heavy thunderstorm activity less organized, and it may be difficult for the storm to hold together much longer. The outer rain showers from Ana are now on radar out of Martinique.
Nearly all of the computer models forecast Ana will dissipate over the next two days. If there is anything left of the storm by the time it encounters the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, that should finish Ana off. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Bill continues strengthening
Tropical Storm Bill continues to gather strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bill has developed a core region of heavy thunderstorms that should be fairly impervious to the dry Saharan air to its northwest, and the storm should be able to start building an eyewall tonight.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range for the next three days. With Sea Surface Temperatures at 27.5°C, and ocean heat content sharply increasing 2 - 3 days from now, Bill should be able to intensify to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. At that time, some increasing shear may limit further intensification.
The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET model, which was resisting forecasting the northward turn, has now joined the other models in its latest 12Z run. The main drama with Bill this week will be to see how close it passes to Bermuda. Several models have Bill passing within 200 miles of Bermuda on Saturday. It is too early to be confident that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 — Blog Index
i think %95 is a little too high i say more like 50/50
Maybe even north of the GFS.
The problem is, they want big-bad-Bill to hit them. This is why WS was disappointed by the model tracks yesterday, and he eventually left the blog.
Agreed. However, I do think from Florida to North Carolina, will start to feel the effects from rip currents and maybe high waves. No hit from Bill on the lower 48s until something major happens. Chance is there, but very slim at the moment.
Regardless of the size of a storm, shear will have an effect; if the tops of the clouds are shearing and the storm starts to tilt the effect will be pretty drastic
i am seeing the same thing
Even the UKMET track could still take it out to sea but its the closest one to the US that suggests a more possible threat.
You are crazy..BILL IS NOT GOING TO HIT FL
Good morning serial. Stay safe down there. Here in the north things are quiet now. Early in the morning we had a lot of rain, thunder activity and wind gusts.
I could never understand why would anyone want to get hit by a hurricane.
I hope WS got banned and didn't just leave.
As I agree with the re-curve at this point, Bermuda is in the cross hairs. Short term memory brings up the name Jeanne as reason to not let your guard down.
But Ana could become Big-Bad Ana if she wanted. She will be under favorable conditions in the Bahamas, and seems to be taking the shortcut there. The ULL will be moving out, thus leaving Ana in an environment with low shear, and bubbling hot waters with high TCHP
can someone preferably with knowledge point out this weakness and elaborate
have you ever experienced a hurricane? I sure have.. and im not saying im a wish caster, but ive been attracted to them ever since
Anything wrong with being high? Seriously, lets see. NHC had Ike as a fish storm, then Ike to hit Carolinas, then Ike was going to SE Florida, then Ike was to go into the GOM and recurve back into Tamps!!!!, then NHC had Ike making a direct hit on Pensacola, then Noew Orleans, the Texas, then down to Brownsville, then back up to Tx.La border when it was almost there.
All of those NHC predictions occurred when Ike was pretty close. NHC, Claudette not develope. NHC did a great job on Wilma. Mother nature is not predictable or else high herself.
Quoting futuremet:
The problem is, they want big-bad-Bill to hit them. This is why WS was disappointed by the model tracks yesterday, and he eventually left the blog.
I could never understand why would anyone want to get hit by a hurricane.
either they have never been through one or they need to be admitted...
that is what you are doing.
nothing shows it coming within 1000 miles of FL yet you keep saying S. FL is gonna get hit.
you keep talking about it breaking thru the jet stream, even though that is not what is forecast to break down the ridge.
the NHC says the weakness is already starting to develop and should only get stronger. then the longwave trough comes in and keeps Bill well east of the US.
unless you know more than all those people at the NHC.
hi gal, gonna hit the showers and head to campus... then probly patillas, best case scenario
Papa-Oom-Mow-Mow
It could, but it may be a close scrape. Too many variables left to be answered. For now, just watch and see what happens with Bill, as well as Ana.
Many of them. Most recent Frances,Jeanne,and Wilma.
The north atlantic oscillation is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea-level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is highly correlated with the Arctic oscillation, as it is a part of it.
Negative NAOs are more favorable for U.S hurricane landfalls. There tends to be more ridging over the east coast during negative NAOs.
but based on modes, if we have big bad ana the trough will take it off to sea =O since as ana approaches FLA the trough would be nearing the SE (but the models dont say a turn ???)
These are summaries of tropical basins in the form of simple satellite pictures and details on specific systems.
All of those NHC predictions occurred when Ike was pretty close. NHC, Claudette not develope. NHC did a great job on Wilma. Mother nature is not predictable or else high herself
mother nature high....now that's a scary thought.....
.....with the exception of the UKMET (it is farther to the south, scraping the Northernmost Leeward Islands).....
That is correct
This blog is about to burst so I will leave soon also lol. Stay safe!
Promoting another website in here is so not cool...not to mention Bastardi is the biggest wishcaster out there!! If you say NY storm, NY storm for so many years eventually something is bound to happen...
Viewing: 2801 - 2851
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 — Blog Index