Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It will probably miss the trof because ana's remnants wont be deep enough to feel the full effect. She will follow the low level pattern, which will continue to push her west. With her current forward speed and lack of any circulation however, she's 99% unlikely to redevelop any time soon, especially not into a cat 2. I'd keep an eye on her, it is possible she could stall out, but unless that happens and she keeps chuggin', nothing should become of her again until the next time her name is used in 6 years.
I dont think so but regardless....
It doesn look that great now. Although shear is favorable and SAL is minimal.
Actually he was very clear that he thought that pattern set up that in 8-9 days (3 days ago) that Bill will make it to S Florida and into the GOM.. . anyways dont matter.. Bill is a nice storm to look @...but if I was in Bermuda..I would get supplies checked and keep up to date on the info!!
Well they aren't expecting it to "move". Essentially, they are expecting a weakness to develop and erode a portion of the subtropical ridge, allowing it to turn NW, and then a trough exiting the U.S. to pick up Bill and take it for a riiiiide.
ROFL.
Based on the latest microwave images Bill looks to be developing a rather unhealthy large eyewall. Seems to be continuing the EWRC.
Point being...nothing...Bill will still be moving wnw at or around 17mph...some said that Bill would feel the 1st Trof at 50
Don't quote Scott.. he's been insulting people all day. CCHS and Drak too, he's pretty childish. Best to ignore. :)
Didn't think about that. Goodbye Ana, until we meet again in 2015!
And I thought a singularity in a black hole was empty and devoid, until News2SOFLA showed off his intelligence. :)
My official forecast
3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.
5 days out, even a good forecast is quite uncertain. Weather happens on a scale ranging from a molecule to the global atmosphere. Things can happen in minutes (a cloud forms) to hours, (a thunderstorm) to days (a front) to weeks (Hurricanes) to months and years (el Nino, etc). All these scales of time and phenomena interact in ways that make weather prediction difficult. Like the dog walking upright, its not that he doesn't do it perfectly - its a wonder he can do it at all. Same goes for weather forecasting.
I'm just being nitpicky, but I don't think StormW is an actual licensed met (just short of getting the paper I believe) - but he is certainly highly respected - and not just on this blog.
Knowing where to get a link, how to find a model, or just reading a blog from a Met and putting it in your own words doesnt count. But in a open forum like this..thats fine.. just people are stupid in general to come into a site like this to ask a Non-Meteorologist a question on where he or she may think its going..cause they actually think they might know more than they do...but in reality..they dont....and only make themselves sound as though they do. Its the persons fault in the 1st place to ask them...they should always follow the NHC for guidance./
your thoughts?
Thanks for listening. lol
G'night.
You're pretty cool dude, what'd someone disagree with you? Happens alot! Now you say something like this and will most likely get banned from posting. Congrats! Perhaps the most ignorant post of the day, why do you bother??
He obviously lives somewhere in NJ/NY and judging by the caps he wants a Hurricane. I dont take to fondly to people wishing hurricanes on my stomping grounds. lol
It'll get you a 24 hour ban and frankly when you say that you usually dot put them on ignore because you want to hear what they have to say in response.
Especially those of the Gulfstream jets. They usually provide the most valuable input to the models.
I've been through BAD hurricanes, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, I've seen devastation at a young age. You really honestly think I want to see devastation again? No. Now there are some characters but they're all trolls that actually do JUST to get out of school. We're just stating our opinions and discussing, you on the other hand have been constantly ridiculing, insulting, ect other posters on this blog for stating their opinions. I value Drak's forecast very much, as well as the other supposed 'wishcasters'.
This guy's been crackin' me up all night! Later all you dudes and dudettes. Back in the AM...
ANA
Bill
Claudette
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