Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting canesrule1:
just my opinion.


Its ok to have an opinion but its based on no facts from everything you've said this morning.
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12 ZULU GFS
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 17.7N 65.2W
Location: 75 miles (121 km) to the SE (131°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
1000mb 114m (374 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
925mb 801m (2,628 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph)
850mb 1,535m (5,036 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W
Splash Time: 17:20Z

Release Location: 17.68N 65.2W View map)
Release Time: 17:18:32Z

Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W (
Splash Time: 17:20:40Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 25 knots (29 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1011mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1013mb (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F)
963mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F)
850mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F)
843mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
875mb 130° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
843mb 125° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
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Quoting 7544:
raw ts up again this hour
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 4.0

we may see ts ana born again
.With all you respect,I don't know from where this information about the Barometric pressure of 1002 millibars for Ana is coming from???,the 2:00 from the NHC have the pressure at 1008 millibars,can you please explain this discrepacies?>
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Quoting Drakoen:
Those aren't the updated 12z models extreme 236 which still do not bring it close to Florida


Oh sorry my bad.
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 17.7N 65.2W
Location: 75 miles (121 km) to the SE (131°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
1000mb 114m (374 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
925mb 801m (2,628 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph)
850mb 1,535m (5,036 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W
Splash Time: 17:20Z

Release Location: 17.68N 65.2W View map)
Release Time: 17:18:32Z

Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W (
Splash Time: 17:20:40Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 25 knots (29 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1011mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
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Quoting Stormxyz:
Any idea why the NHC is not changing the wording in their statement regarding Ana? Saying nothing about the ADT numbers, not even talk of regeneration to a TS, instead saying it could become a tropical wave?

I know those ADT numbers are high, but not even a mention???
Quoting canesrule1:
I still think Bill is going to hit Florida, but, im not saying anything.


lol
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Lighter winds reported now. Stronger winds reported near the possible center SE of PR.

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Weather and Climate Data
Home Analyses Forecasts Meteograms Climate Outlooks Hurricane Potential



Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity



The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

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Those aren't the updated 12z models extreme 236 which still do not bring it close to Florida
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Quoting extreme236:


None even close

just my opinion.
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Quoting PSL2007:


Wind and rain- as is normal for a typical Florida thunderstorm- just wear a raincoat and bring an umbrella.
If it is a TS u might see some closures, but depends on your business whether they would affect u....
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Quoting jpsb:


Allen is the second of only two hurricanes in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), after Hurricane Camille in 1969.


I thought Gilbert was the record holder until beaten by Wilma, although that may be for low pressure, rather than recorded wind speed.

It'll be interesting to see where Bill ends up on the record table.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


You just did! LOL
i know, LOL, but i don't want people to start screaming out "WISHCASTER!!! WISHCASTER!!!" because im sharing my opinion.
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hi all...I know the HH are in Ana now and when you all get the data, since you know what all the jibberish mean, and post it, can you please decipher it?

Thanks in advance!
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Quoting canesrule1:
I still think Bill is going to hit Florida, but, im not saying anything.


None even close

.
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Quoting 7544:


am i seeing some pinks there at 45mph


No, those pinks are 25 mph, refer to my post above.
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According to wikipedia, it was the most intense storm.Link
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Quoting Stormxyz:
Any idea why the NHC is not changing the wording in their statement regarding Ana? Saying nothing about the ADT numbers, not even talk of regeneration to a TS, instead saying it could become a tropical wave?

I know those ADT numbers are high, but not even a mention???


The brass facts from the HH are coming in, why would they speculate?
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898. 7544
Quoting weathersp:
Hurricane Hunters in Ana have already found 35 mph winds va SFMR.


am i seeing some pinks there at 45mph
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Quoting canesrule1:
I still think Bill is going to hit Florida, but, im not saying anything.


You just did! LOL
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Ike took that record I believe for the Atlantic.
Marco took the record for the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded though.

Interesting facts about Wilma:
It was the first W named storm
Lowest recorded pressure of 882 millibars
Smallest known eye in the Atlantic-3 miles wide
Costliest hurricane in Mexico
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Does anyone think Ana could go south of Hispaniola?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
12 Z out on the Emanuel site. Decay SHIPS still likes Ana for a cat 1, but not sure of the track used for that. (Anyone? Is it just the OFCL track...it is not necessarily NOGAPS even though they have the same plot symbols.)





http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html


I live in Tampa and even a Cat 1 would be an issue for me. Interesting data.
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Any idea why the NHC is not changing the wording in their statement regarding Ana? Saying nothing about the ADT numbers, not even talk of regeneration to a TS, instead saying it could become a tropical wave?

I know those ADT numbers are high, but not even a mention???
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I just saw it brings it closer to the Northeast. We'll see if the other models begin to shift. I just hope this isn't the start of a westward trend.
I still think Bill is going to hit Florida, but, im not saying anything.
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12 Z out on the Emanuel site. Decay SHIPS still likes Ana for a cat 1, but not sure of the track used for that. (Anyone? Is it just the OFCL track...it is not necessarily NOGAPS even though they have the same plot symbols.)





http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
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Hurricane Hunters in Ana have already found 35 mph winds via SFMR.
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The changes are the greatest on the GFDL and HWRF models
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Mon Aug 17 2009
1724 GMT
Latitude 17.6 N
Longitude 65.6 W
Moderate turbulence in clear air infrequent
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1476 feet (450 meters)
Flight level winds 130 degrees at 21 knots (24 mph)
Temperature 23 C Dewpoint 12 C
Surface winds 120 at 30 knots (34 mph)
Remarks: AF300 0202A ANA OB 02


If they can find a vortex, then it's still a TD...of course, looking at radar, that seems like a big if.
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Look at the official T# not the Raw t#.

Also Bill looks very good right now. I think the HWRF is on something for Bill to turn out to be a category five at 190mph on the track it is forecasted to take. It is possible that once Bill's inner core is finalized that he could make a run at category five and ultimately fail to reach it that seems reasonable at this time.
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Quoting ConchHondros:


We had a good gust front through Oklahoma just a bit ago with storms moving along the DL...the front is on the move now


Just had a 5 minute burst of rain in Tulsa, OK...typical summer storm - windy, dark clouds hard rain that doesn't last long.
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Ha. NOGAPS has Bill and Ana nearly hitting head on.
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Anybody have a link to an updated TCHP? NOAA website still says May 19, 2009.

Thanks in advance for any help.
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Camille=190
Katrina and Andrew=175
Rita and Mitch=180
Gilbert and Wilma =185
-
Didn't check every year...just the ones I knew had strong winded canes. Someone said Wilma is strongest according to NHC...but that's based on lowest pressure...not highest winds. The question was about strongest winds...and she's second.
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7:28:00Z 17.617N 65.850W 959.6 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 463 meters
(~ 1,519 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 121° at 26 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 12.0°C
(~ 53.6°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
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Quoting Drakoen:


A few hundred miles


I just saw it brings it closer to the Northeast. We'll see if the other models begin to shift. I just hope this isn't the start of a westward trend.
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Quoting midwesterntracker:
If Ana hits South Florida as a TD/TS, what are the practical effects? (Traveling to Miami for business this week) - Business as usual or closures/delays? Thanks.


Wind and rain- as is normal for a typical Florida thunderstorm- just wear a raincoat and bring an umbrella.
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Quoting extreme236:
That ADT is insane...I don't know what Ana is but she certainly isn't a hurricane.


That number is suspect...
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Quoting CaneWarning:


How much of a shift?


A few hundred miles
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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